China News Service, May 21 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun) With seeking to join the NATO umbrella, Finland's "Finnishization" and Sweden's "non-alignment" will both become historical terms.

  Despite the decision to abandon the military non-alignment policy that has been upheld for many years, the two countries still put forward a condition at the last moment of their decision to "join the treaty": they oppose the deployment of nuclear weapons in their respective countries and permanent NATO military bases.

  "NATO will not impose a battle group on anyone," NATO responded.

Whether Finland and Sweden believe it or not, Russia believes it or not...

[Conditions provided by Finland and Sweden]

  After the two countries submitted their applications to join NATO, Finnish President Niinisto and Swedish Prime Minister Andersson became the guests of the White House.

  Take a closer look at the remarks made by US President Biden when he met with the two, or intended to reflect these points:

  1. Downplay NATO's aggressiveness.

  Although NATO is currently the world's most powerful military alliance with a large number of nuclear weapons and is still expanding, Biden stressed that the new members of NATO "will not pose a threat to any country."

NATO is a "defensive" alliance.

  2. Praise the prospective new member states.

  Biden believes that "Sweden and Finland not only have strong democracies and strong military, but also have a strong sense of morality about the right things, and they meet all NATO standards."

  The evaluation is very high and there are many bright spots, such as "strong democratic system" and "strong military".

Such two countries are indeed in line with the "aesthetics" of the United States, and they are the "perfect objects" that NATO is striving for.

US President Biden.

  3. Remind existing member states.

  Biden noted that the addition of Finland and Sweden "will make NATO stronger."

A "strong, united NATO is also the foundation of U.S. national security."

  After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, NATO, which was originally disorganized, regained its vitality.

Without "unity", there is no way to be "strong". Biden deliberately elevates NATO's status, calling it "the foundation of American national security", intending to remind some members: the United States is still the boss, listen to the boss and stop making trouble, otherwise no one will Think better.

  Fourth, emphasize the urgency of expansion.

  Biden said that his administration will submit a report on the two countries' "entry into the treaty" to the U.S. Congress so that the relevant procedures can be quickly passed.

This is not only a declaration of determination to Finland, Switzerland and a number of allies, but also to the rival Republican Party: this matter cannot be delayed.

  All in all, according to Biden's words, the United States "completely supports" the rapid accession of the two countries, and NATO "has no threat" to other countries.

  However, the recent large-scale military exercises of NATO member states in Estonia and Lithuania seem to show the opposite picture.

During these military exercises, nearly 20,000 soldiers and thousands of pieces of weapons and equipment from more than 10 countries showed their muscles. Finland, Sweden, and Ukraine were also invited to participate.

The exercise site is only 60 kilometers away from the Russian border.

Data map: NATO holds winter military exercises in Lithuania.

  Although they have turned to NATO in defense, Finland and Sweden are not without scruples.

When the thinking of the security policies of the two countries "turned sharply", they still wanted to hold the only "bottom line".

  On the 15th, when the ruling Swedish Social Democratic Party announced the submission of the application for "joining the treaty", it made a clear statement: Sweden will oppose NATO's deployment of nuclear weapons and military bases on its territory.

  On the 18th, Finnish Prime Minister Marin also pointed out in an interview article: the deployment of nuclear weapons and NATO permanent bases in Finland is not on the agenda.

"If we don't want to", "No one will come to us and impose nuclear weapons or permanent bases on us".

On May 18, local time, Swedish Defense Minister Hultquist (left) visited the Pentagon and held a meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Austin (right).

Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong

  NATO's response is naturally high-sounding.

On the 20th, Rob Ball, chairman of the NATO Military Commission, said: "NATO member states are sovereign states, and they decide for themselves whether they need additional troops. NATO will not impose a battle group on anyone" and "will only follow the request of the two countries. "Make a decision to deploy troops.

  On the issue of nuclear weapons, it can be said that the governments of Finland and Sweden have taken the lead.

NATO is a nuclear organization, but Finland and Sweden have historically been the most active countries in advocating the prohibition and destruction of nuclear weapons.

For these two countries to suddenly give up their non-nuclear state, the people will definitely be the first to "turn the table", but it is hard to say whether the two countries will eventually "give in" to NATO.

[Putin's response is meaningful]

  Looking at Russia's response, Finnish President Niinisto recently had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss Finland's application for the treaty. Finnish Prime Minister Marin said that Putin's response to this issue was "surprisingly calm".

However, Marin also said that Helsinki is very worried about the development of the situation in Ukraine, hoping that Russia will not make an "overreaction" to Finland.

  In this regard, Putin has made a clear statement.

He mentioned "threat", which has three meanings, and it is clear who is enemy and who is friend:

  1. Russia is not a "threat" to Finland and Sweden;

  2. Even if they join NATO, the two countries are not an existential "threat" for Russia;

  3. However, if NATO puts weapons in these two countries, the problem will come, and Russia will regard it as the biggest "threat".

Data map: Russian President Vladimir Putin watches military exercises with binoculars.

  One of Putin's characteristics is to go before the soldiers.

Faced with these two countries, Putin has generally shown restraint and wait-and-see in his diplomatic discourse, and has no intention of intensifying confrontation at this stage.

  In contrast, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova's answers were more "domineering" and more of a shout-out to NATO.

Regarding what kind of "military-technical measures" Russia plans to take against Finland, Zakharova said that the Russian defense department will make decisions accordingly depending on the development characteristics of Finland after "joining the treaty". "This will be a surprise."

  The Chairman of the Russian Federation Council, Matvienko, pointed out that what kind of military presence NATO has on the territory of the two countries and what weapons will be deployed, Russia will respond in a reciprocal manner.

"On the military side, I can give a clear assurance that Russia's security will be guaranteed," she stressed.

【Military tension will escalate】

  Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov pointed out that "they (the West) should not imagine that we will tolerate it easily." The two countries joining NATO will be a "huge mistake" that will have far-reaching consequences, and the overall regional "military tension level will be reduced." rise".

Data map: F-35B fighter jet.

  According to an analysis by the Gatestone Institute of the United States, Finland has the largest reserve force in Europe, with about 280,000 people.

On February 12, before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, Finland signed a $9.4 billion purchase order with the United States for a total of 64 F-35 fighter jets.

  As a Nordic country, it also has a unique advantage - strong winter combat capability.

  Although Sweden has a small army, it has a strong military-industrial system. The most capable fourth-generation fighter jets in service, the "Gripen" and "Gotland-class" AIP diesel submarines, are also sold.

After a decade of military reforms, Sweden has doubled its military spending and plans to reach 2% of GDP by 2028.

  Compared with Ukraine, these two countries with impressive military and economic strength are the real targets of NATO's new round of expansion.

In all respects, the "entry into the treaty" of the two countries will inevitably form greater strategic deterrence and containment against Russia.

  First, the strategic buffer zone between NATO and Russia on land has been greatly narrowed.

  Once Finland joins, the border between NATO members and Russia will increase by another 1,300 kilometers, more than doubling the original size.

The important Russian ports of St. Petersburg and Murmansk will lose their strategic depth.

If NATO troops are deployed to Finland, it is less than 200 kilometers away from the nearest St. Petersburg.

Data map: NATO launched joint military exercises in Norway and surrounding areas.

  Second, Russia faces a more severe maritime security situation.

  Whether it is the Kola Peninsula, the base camp of the Russian Northern Fleet, which is regarded as a "strategic fortress" adjacent to Finland, or Kaliningrad, an enclave on the Baltic Sea bordering Poland and Lithuania, there are more risks.

As the Latvian Foreign Minister described, Finland and Switzerland "joined the treaty", the Baltic Sea will in fact become "NATO inland sea", the coast is all NATO member states, and Russia is tightly surrounded in this area.

  Third, the military competition in the Arctic region will escalate.

  According to analysis, the entry of Finland and Sweden into the treaty means that only Russia is not a member of NATO in the Arctic Council.

As global warming continues, the Arctic Circle may bring about a new military race.

Norway, Denmark and Iceland have already belonged to the NATO camp, and Finland and Sweden will join again, and NATO's power projection to the Arctic Circle will be further enhanced.

  The American magazine "National Interest" commented that when the United States and Russia had differences on Arctic security issues, neutral Sweden and Finland played an important role in mediating.

After that, the Finnish-Russian border may become a militarized area of ​​the Arctic and sub-Arctic, and the Arctic region will also become unstable.

[What will the "surprise" given by Russia be]

  What kind of "surprise" might Russia, which has lost further room for strategic maneuver, send out?

Russian military expert Korochenko pointed out several "things that should be done":

Data map: During the tactical exercise of the Russian North Sea Fleet on the Laptev Sea Kotelny Island in the Arctic Ocean, the Fortress coastal defense system launched a supersonic anti-ship missile.

  First, revise the military doctrine and explicitly rely on tactical nuclear weapons to contain NATO.

  Korochenko told the Russian Satellite News Agency that NATO has significantly surpassed Russia in the number of personnel, weapons and military technical equipment.

Russia should be more “pragmatic” and revise its military doctrine to clearly describe the conditions and procedures under which it will conduct tactical nuclear strikes against NATO military targets and infrastructure in response to possible aggression or attack on Russia.

  He believes that Russia should equip the Kalibr cruise missiles and Iskander-M tactical missile systems with nuclear warheads in the west.

  According to the website of Russia's "Independence", two types of ballistic missile mobile launcher "Iskander" systems, which have a range of 500 kilometers and take only a few minutes to deploy, began to be transferred to the Russian-Finnish border.

Helsinki and Stockholm are both within range.

Data map: On July 28, 2019, Russia held a naval parade in St. Petersburg to celebrate the Russian Navy Day.

  2. Strengthen the military in northwestern Russia and the Baltic coast.

  Korochenko pointed out that if Finland and Switzerland "accelerate" their entry into the treaty, by the summer of 2022, the armed forces of the two countries will be fully integrated into the NATO military structure.

Once the situation in the European theater deteriorates, NATO may deploy armed strike forces or take other actions in the two countries at any time, which will seriously affect Russia's security.

  The strengthening of the Russian Federation's air defense system, especially covering the long border with Finland, requires a lot of money and time.

He analyzed that only by adding tactical nuclear weapons to the Western Military Region troops and the Baltic Fleet this year, and at the same time establishing deterrence potential in the form of new brigades and divisions, can the gap be quickly eliminated.

  Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has warned earlier that Russia may deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in the European enclave of Kaliningrad as appropriate.

Perhaps by then the Finns and Swedes will "have to live with nuclear weapons and missiles close to home".