President Biden of the United States will visit Japan from May 22nd to 24th.
He is the first visit to Asia since taking office in January 2021.
Where is the aim of visiting Japan now?
And why not go to China this time?
(Washington Bureau Chief, Yu Takagi)
What is the biggest aim of your visit to Japan?
It is to clearly show that the United States' involvement in the Indo-Pacific region remains unwavering as Russian troops continue to invade Ukraine.
During the Ukraine crisis, the US government, along with European countries and others, has imposed strong economic sanctions on Russia and focused on providing Ukraine with a large amount of military assistance.
This raises concerns among the countries concerned that the United States' involvement in the Indo-Pacific region, where China is gaining influence against the backdrop of military power, may be postponed or weakened. I have.
To that end, President Biden wants to visit Japan and South Korea, the trusted East Asian allies, to showcase their strong alliance and consistent involvement in regional security.
Why don't you go to China this time?
There is a deep reason for that.
First, I would like to review the first visit of the President of the United States to Japan since the beginning of this century.
Surprisingly, it is the first time in more than 20 years that the President of the United States has not visited China in conjunction with his first visit to Japan.
President Clinton, who had stayed in China for nine days in 1998, did not stop in Japan and was even called "Japan Passing".
Compared to that, the times have changed a lot.
To find out why, look at the following chronology of US-China relations.
After President Nixon's visit to China, the United States and China approached each other, and after the Tiananmen Square Incident, the United States tried to make China obey international rules and develop together by engaging with China.
However, around the time of the establishment of Xi Jinping's leadership, China will further strengthen its military expansion and speech control.
The United States has come to perceive China as challenging the postwar international order.
Initially, the former Trump administration took a stance of being harmonious with China, but from the middle of the process, it suddenly strengthened its stance toward China.
The Biden administration follows that.
Positioning China as the "largest competitor", we have entered an era in which the United States and China compete with each other.
It has come to be called the "New Cold War".
Public opinion about China in the United States is also deteriorating, and President Biden is now in a situation where he could lose his support if he visits China.
What does President Biden want to do in Japan?
With the rise of China and the relative decline of the US national power, US expectations for Japan are rising.
At the summit meeting with Prime Minister Kishida, we would like to strengthen cooperation in the security field, keeping in mind the possibility of a Taiwan emergency.
At the same time, President Biden will reaffirm that "extended deterrence," including the US "nuclear umbrella," is strong and sufficient.
What is "extended deterrence"?
"Expanded deterrence" is the keyword of this summit meeting.
"Extended deterrence" is the idea that an attack on an ally is regarded as an attack on one's own country, and if an attack is made, a retaliation is declared in advance to discourage the other country from attacking.
It is called "extended deterrence" because it provides the deterrence of one's own country to allies.
President Biden will reaffirm "extended deterrence" in Japan and South Korea to dispel security concerns that are widespread in the region, and to restrain China and North Korea, which repeatedly launches ballistic missiles. I have the aim of doing it.
We also believe that the reaffirmation of "extended deterrence" will be an American message to Taiwan, which is under military pressure by the Chinese military.
Is it also a message to Taiwan?
Yes.
In fact, the United States has not clarified how to respond in the event of a Taiwan emergency.
The United States calls Taiwan an "ambiguous strategy" and does not clarify in advance what to do if China tries to unify Taiwan by making full use of its military power, thereby deterring China's actions and at the same time Taiwan We have a strategy to keep ourselves independence.
We believe that this will lead to regional stability.
However, in Taiwan, when the United States declared that it would not send troops to Ukraine early and saw that it was devoting itself to military support from the outside, it seems that the United States would not support in the event of a Taiwan emergency. Opinion polls show that more and more people are thinking.
For this reason, President Biden's reaffirmation of "extended deterrence" in Japan, which is "the tip of the eyes and nose" of Taiwan and China, also aims to send a powerful message to those Taiwanese.
What is the aim of the Quad Summit of Japan, the United States and Australia?
The main aim of the quad summit meeting of the four countries of Japan, the United States, Australia and India, which will be held on the 24th, the day after the Japan-US summit meeting, is to deepen relations with India.
India has historically had a strong relationship with Russia through the purchase of weapons, and in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, it is difficult for India to agree if it tries to increase pressure on Russia within the framework of the quad.
For this reason, at the Quad Summit, we would like to increase the pressure on China by further deepening relations in areas where it is easy for the four countries to work together, such as corona, climate change countermeasures, and space cooperation, with China in mind. ..
Is "IPEF" that you often hear recently important?
that's right.
Another hidden aim of President Biden's visit to Japan is the announcement of its IPEF = Indo-Pacific Economic Framework in Tokyo.
IPEF is read as "eye pef".
A new economic partnership that stands for Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, proposed by the Biden administration as a framework to replace the TPP = Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, which the United States left during the previous Trump administration.
The aim is to compete with China by building a supply chain = supply network and managing data across national borders.
However, the reaction of the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which the United States expects to participate in, is not good enough.
This is because many ASEAN countries are skeptical of the "seriousness" of the United States and are concerned about worsening relations with China, which has strong economic ties.
In addition, there are complaints about the lack of visible benefits such as tariff reductions.
For this reason, President Biden wants to make a start dash by announcing the start of talks for the launch of IPEF in Tokyo, with the support of Japan, which is highly reliable among ASEAN countries.
In addition to the specific contents of IPEF, attention is being paid to whether any country will participate.