Hezbollah and its allies' loss of the majority in parliament may complicate the achievement of the urgent future goals
Fears of greater political paralysis after the parliamentary elections in Lebanon
Supporters of the Lebanese Forces party celebrate their party's victory in a comfortable number of parliamentary seats.
AFP
Analysts believe that the loss of the majority by Hezbollah and its allies in the Lebanese parliament may complicate the achievement of the urgent upcoming elections, which at best portends a prolonged political paralysis, or even the possibility of a slide into violence.
Hezbollah and its allies lost the majority in Parliament, which prompted its opponents to celebrate, but the Iran-backed party remains the most influential force on the political scene, and has a huge military arsenal that it says is to confront Israel, but its opponents accuse it of using it for “intimidation” at home, and to build “ A state within a state.
Despite losing the majority in the House of Representatives, Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement, retained all the seats belonging to the Shiite community (27), but prominent traditional allies of it, including from the Free Patriotic Movement led by President Michel Aoun, lost their seats, which made him unable to On securing 65 of the 128 seats in the House of Representatives.
Its arch-rival, the Lebanese Forces Party, achieved some progress in the number of seats (18), while the surprise was the arrival of at least 13 deputies from the opposition emanating from the popular uprising against the entire political class that began in 2019.
This result will make the parliament scattered, without a clear majority for any party.
"The old guard will seek to assert its political hegemony in the face of the changers who entered parliament for the first time," said Lina Khatib, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.
Election of the Speaker of Parliament
The term of the new council begins on May 22, and it will have 15 days to elect its president, a position that has been held by the head of the Amal Movement, Nabih Berri, since 1992, and he does not intend to relinquish it despite reaching the age of 84.
The "changers" and other opponents, including the head of the Lebanese Forces party, Samir Geagea, announced that they would not elect Berri as Speaker of Parliament.
But their objection may not be feasible, given that all Shiite MPs belong to the Amal movement and Hezbollah, or what is known as the “Shiite duo,” and therefore, they will not have an alternative candidate to present, knowing that the presidency of the parliament belongs to the Shiites in Lebanon.
Will the election of the speaker of the council be the first test for the opponents of how much they are willing to risk challenging Hezbollah?
The party was quick to start sending messages to the deputies opposing it as soon as the results of the elections appeared. The head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, Muhammad Raad, said, “We accept you as opponents in the parliament, but we will not accept you as shields for the Israeli and behind the Israeli.”
This sharp division raises fears of a recurrence of violent incidents that took place in the Tayouneh area in Beirut in October 2021 between supporters of the Lebanese Forces, supporters of Hezbollah and the Amal movement, against the background of a protest demonstration.
The Lebanese newspaper, L'Orient-Le Jour, published in French on Wednesday, indicated that the majority that Hezbollah had enjoyed in Parliament in recent years enabled it "to impose its decisions without resorting to violence and protecting its red lines."
government formation
"There is a real danger of complete paralysis," said researcher Daniel Meyer, who is based in France, adding, "The dead end is a Lebanese specialty."
During the last outgoing term of Parliament, two years out of four were under the supervision of a caretaker government, which had a limited ability to accomplish anything, while the traditional forces in force sought to agree on a government structure based on quotas.
Najib Mikati heads a government that is supposed to resign after the start of the new parliament's term, since September 2021, after a 13-month hiatus.
It is assumed that the government is composed of technocratic ministers, most of them, but it turns out that many of them have a clear political reference that guides them.
It is unlikely that any of the new opponents, who pursue a new modern discourse away from the traditional language of the deeply rooted Lebanese politicians, will participate in any coalition government.
Political analyst Sami Nader says, "There is a change in the balance of power, but this will not be translated into a change program, because, despite everything, Hezbollah retains its ability to veto."
Mikati may find himself in the position of managing a caretaker government until the time for the election of a new President of the Republic at the end of this year.
Presidential election
The election of the president to succeed Michel Aoun (88 years), in turn, will be another difficult event on the Parliament's agenda.
Several names are being discussed to succeed him, including his son-in-law Gebran Bassil, Lebanese Forces party leader Samir Geagea, former MP and Minister Suleiman Franjieh, and army commander Joseph Aoun.
But they are all names that do not receive unanimity, and it is difficult to gain a majority in the House of Representatives.
“We will most likely witness a long period of paralysis in Parliament,” said Joseph Bahout, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, noting that crises could delay the reforms required by the International Monetary Fund, in exchange for providing urgent assistance to Lebanon, which is suffering from an economic crisis. Preceded, more than two years ago.
• Despite losing the majority in the parliament, "Hezbollah" and its ally the Amal Movement retained all the seats belonging to the Shiite sect (27), but prominent traditional allies of it, including the Free Patriotic Movement led by President Michel Aoun, lost their seats, which made it irrelevant. Able to secure 65 seats out of 128 seats in the House of Representatives.
• It is unlikely that any of the new opponents who pursue a new modern discourse away from the traditional language of the rooted Lebanese politicians, will participate in any coalition government.
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