The Turkish government is planning to return a million refugees to northern Syria at a time when public resentment against the Syrians has reached a boiling point, amid opposition propaganda and economic difficulties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
In a report on this subject, the Turkish writer and political analyst, Omer Ozkizilcik, who specializes in Syrian affairs, believes that more and more Syrian refugees are ready to return, provided that their safety is guaranteed and adequate infrastructure is provided for their return.
And he hinted in his report - published by the British "Middle East Eye" website - that the ruling Turkish authorities are racing against time to achieve what they planned in light of the approaching elections that will take place next year.
Ozkizilcik suggested that the opposition will likely play two prominent cards against the government during the aforementioned elections, namely the economy and the migration crisis. To ease this pressure and avoid an increase in crimes against refugees, the government wants the Turkish public to know that there is an alternative.
He explained that Syrians in Turkey are not considered refugees, but are under temporary protection, which means that the Turkish government is required to find ways to facilitate their voluntary return to Syria.
If those who wish to return return, this will relieve pressure on those who choose to remain in Turkey, which will help in their better integration into Turkish society, but how to do this is still a matter of debate, according to the author.
As for the Turkish opposition, it says that if it comes to power, it will normalize relations with the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and conclude a deal with it to enable the return of refugees.
But this option, according to Ozkielcik, has been tested by other countries without much success, as Jordan and Lebanon normalized their relationship with the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, but most Syrians refused to return.
"Since 2019, more than 37,000 Syrian refugees have voluntarily returned from Lebanon and more than 40,000 from Jordan, while hundreds of thousands of them have remained in these two countries," the author attributed to a United Nations report.
As for Turkey, which hosts the largest number of Syrian refugees in the world, more than 3.5 million, the authorities have confirmed that about 81,000 have returned to Syria in this time frame, and there may be cases that the United Nations has not registered.
But according to the Turkish Ministry of the Interior, the number of returnees is much higher, and this ministry stated last March that about 500,000 refugees have voluntarily returned to their country since Turkey established a safe zone in northern Syria.
But it is noted, according to the author, that the influx of Syrian refugees from within their country into these areas that Turkey protects has now led to the accumulation of about 5 million people in a small area that lacks the necessary infrastructure.
The analyst highlighted what the United Nations has confirmed that the return of refugees must be voluntary, dignified and safe.
While Turkey has a responsibility to ensure security in the areas it protects, Idlib has been repeatedly hit by Russian air strikes and suffers from political instability, but Turkey's deployment of the newly produced Hisar-O air defense systems may, according to the author, improve The security situation in Idlib, and the Russian-Ukrainian war gave Ankara extra time.
Özkizilcic said that ensuring the safety and dignity of Syrian refugees and building adequate infrastructure to house them would persuade more and more of them to return to the country, even if it did not enable them to return immediately to their hometowns.
He pointed out - in this regard - that the area between the areas of Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ain provides a large space for the necessary housing and infrastructure projects, and that Turkey has the ability to build there on its own.
But while Britain has scaled back its financial aid to Syria, leaving thousands of children without an education, it seems unlikely that European countries will contribute to the Turkish project.
While more money may come from Gulf states, that may not be enough, as Russia is expected this summer to veto the cross-border aid mechanism used by the United Nations to aid Idlib residents, which would prevent the flow of Vital humanitarian aid the region.
If sufficient funds cannot be allocated to ensure the safe and dignified return of Syrian refugees, the Turkish government will almost certainly not reach its goal of returning a million refugees to Syria, according to the author.