It is a very small strip of land 65 kilometers long on the border between Poland and Lithuania.

But she is closely scrutinized.

The Suwalki corridor, which connects the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, on the Baltic Sea, to pro-Putin Belarus, marks the separation between the Baltic countries and their allies in the EU and NATO.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine on February 24, Lithuania has stepped up surveillance of this passage, a source of concern since the invasion of Crimea by Russia in 2014.

To the west, the Suwalki pass starts from the oblast – Russian administrative region – of Kaliningrad.

Annexed by Stalin after the Second World War, Kaliningrad remained Russian, despite the independence of the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) in 1991. Over the years, the enclave has been heavily militarized by Russia, especially after the enlargement of NATO and the EU to the Baltic States in 2004.

The Suwalki corridor, a strip of land that worries the Baltic countries and Poland, in the context of the war in Ukraine.

© Graphic studio France Media World

The Suwalki Corridor, named after a Polish town near the border, runs along the border between Lithuania and Poland and ends in Belarus.

The vassal country of Moscow regularly carries out military exercises, in response to the reinforcement of troops in Poland and the Baltic countries.

Russian troops are also stationed in Belarus.

In this context, the Suwalki corridor is perceived by some analysts as a weak point for NATO.

Because by seizing it, Russia would directly link its territory to Belarus.

Suwalki facing the difficulties of the Russian army 

"If this axis were blocked by the Russians, NATO would no longer be able to transport troops overland from Poland to Lithuania", explains Thibault Fouillet, research fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research.

The Baltic countries would find themselves isolated from their allies in NATO and the European Union on land.

>> To read also: "The war in Ukraine, a threat to the fragile geopolitical balance in the Arctic"

"Given the difficulties of Russia in Ukraine, it is difficult to see how it could fight against several States at the same time", nuance the specialist in contemporary conflicts and the strategies of the small powers.

Moscow has failed to wage the blitzkrieg it hoped for in Ukraine.

The capital, kyiv, resisted the Russians, who are now concentrating their efforts in Donbass, in the east of the country.

A week ago, Russian troops had to leave Ukraine's second city, Kharkiv.

"Russia was ready to embark on a major war - which we were not completely sure of at the start. The threat was great for the Baltic States. But today, we see that the Russian army is well less capable than we imagined. And the risk of a global invasion seems to be receding", adds the researcher.

Finland's and Sweden's application for NATO membership is good news for the Baltic countries.

By joining the Atlantic Alliance, the two neighboring European countries could send equipment and troops.

"Finland's accession would make it possible to transport troops from Helsinki to Tallinn. And with a maritime corridor, a landing from Stockholm can also be set up", specifies Thibault Fouillet.

A fear born during the Cold War

The fear of a takeover of the Suwalki Corridor is not new.

In the region, it represents a "historic concern", according to the researcher.

"During the Cold War, the geographical position of the corridor was already raising questions, even though the Baltic countries and Poland were part of the USSR. The problem came out of the closet in the early 2000s [with the enlargement of the 'NATO in 2004, Editor's note] and in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea", explains Thibault Fouillet. 

In 2016, a report by the Rand Corporation think tank also caused a stir, bringing the question of the Suwalki corridor back to the fore.

By simulating an invasion of the Baltic States, researchers have shown that Riga or Tallinn could be surrounded by Russian forces in less than 60 hours.

>> See also: "War in Ukraine: Does Putin dream of a Greater Russia?"

“These Rand Corporation simulations showed that the ideal plan for the Russians would be to invade the Baltic States by encirclement. taking, bombarding or blocking the corridor of Suwalki to prevent the delivery of troops", explains the researcher.

But according to him, these projections have their limits.

"Nor should we consider that Russia is still the USSR. What the Soviet Union could do by invading part of Europe, Russia cannot do today. It is hard to see it invading all of the Baltic countries by directly threatening the Suwalki corridor, given the difficulties of its army in Ukraine."

The summary of the

France 24 week invites you to come back to the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news everywhere with you!

Download the France 24 app

google-play-badge_EN