China News Service, May 18 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun) Recently, a big news came out. Sweden and Finland, two of the seven permanently neutral countries recognized internationally, both broke historical tradition and officially decided to apply for NATO membership.
This means that NATO has taken a symbolic step towards the sixth round of expansion and will further strengthen its strategic encirclement and deterrence against Russia.
It also heralds the most significant change in the European security architecture in decades.
The Kremlin has expressed concerns and warnings about the two countries' applications to join NATO.
And it looks tougher than Russian President Vladimir Putin's stance is another country, Turkey.
[Finland and Sweden have decided]
On May 15, the Finnish government said in a statement that after consultations with parliament, the country will submit an application to join NATO at its Brussels headquarters.
Finnish President Niinisto and Prime Minister Marin pointed out that the decision is of historical significance, "the strength of democracy has been reflected in this issue."
According to Fox News, the Finnish ambassador to the United States said that nearly 80 percent of the people now support joining NATO.
Image source: Screenshot from Fox News report.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict "shows that the security structures we rely on in Europe, such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, are not functioning to prevent war," said Finnish Foreign Minister Havis.
On the same day, Sweden's ruling Social Democratic Party also stated that Sweden formally decided to apply for NATO membership.
Swedish Prime Minister Andersson believes that the move "will have a positive impact on the security of the country and the people."
Andersson previously said, "It has always been in our interest to pursue a non-aligned position, but now the conclusion is that this position is not in our favor next time."
Finland and Sweden have long adhered to the principle of "military non-alignment", and have always stayed away from joining NATO in order to avoid a strong backlash from Russia.
But after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict began, they sided with Kyiv, supporting actions including:
- Announced closure of airspace to Russian aircraft
-Break the taboo of not exporting weapons or equipment to belligerent countries and supply weapons to the Ukrainian army
- Sanctions on Moscow, freezing assets of Putin and Russian ministers in both countries
On May 9, local time, Russia held a military parade on the Red Square in the capital Moscow to commemorate the 77th anniversary of the victory of the Great Patriotic War.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Tian Bing
Qatar's Al Jazeera analyzed that over the years Finland and Sweden have achieved goals that Europe collectively failed to achieve, relying only on 6% and 2% of energy sources such as Russian gas, but this may be "not enough to prevent vows to use when necessary. Nuclear Russia".
Today, the two countries' application for "joining the treaty" is undoubtedly a blow to Russia and may trigger a demonstration effect.
However, senior NATO and U.S. officials believe that Russia, which is caught in a confrontation with Ukraine, "is difficult to deploy sufficient border deterrent forces" for a period of time.
If Moscow ultimately loses, it will become a "valuable opportunity for neighboring countries to use Moscow's trauma to stand with the West."
[Putin's statement, Russia resorted to three moves]
On the 14th, initiated by Finland, Finnish President Niinisto and Putin talked on the phone about the country's application for "joining the contract".
A statement from the Finnish presidency said the talks between the two leaders were "direct and frank" and took place without escalating the situation.
Both sides agreed that it was important to avoid tensions.
In this regard, Putin expressed his attitude during the phone call with Niinisto and at the summit of the leaders of the CSTO:
1. There is no problem between Russia and Finland and Sweden, and Finland's security is not threatened;
2. The two countries' accession to NATO will not pose an existential threat to Russia;
3. It would be a mistake for Finland to abandon its traditional military neutrality;
4. Changes in Finland’s foreign policy may have a negative impact on Russia-Finland relations, which have been good-neighborly cooperation for many years;
5. If NATO deploys military facilities to the territories of the two countries, Russia will respond.
Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Putin noted that plans for the U.S.-led NATO to expand its global influence must be closely watched.
How Russia will respond depends on an "assessment of the threat".
Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov said that on the one hand, the Kremlin is worried about the decision of Finland and Sweden to "join the treaty". "From the perspective of ensuring our country's security absolutely and unconditionally," it will carefully observe and deeply analyze the situation to ensure Russia's security prospects. .
On the other hand, there is no territorial dispute between Russia, Finland or Sweden.
When the two countries are about to fall into the "arms" of NATO, Russia resorted to three strategies:
1. Power outage.
On the 13th local time, the Russian company "RAO Nordic", which supplies electricity to Finland, announced that it would stop supplying electricity from midnight on that day because of delays in Finland's payment.
So far, Finland has imported nearly 10% of its electricity from Russia.
However, the Finnish grid operator said that, thanks mainly to the supply from Sweden, Finland's electricity supply was stable and could withstand the gap left by Russia's cut-off "without difficulty".
Two, rush people.
On the 17th local time, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs protested because Finland expelled two diplomats from the Russian embassy in Finland.
At the same time, the Russian side took reciprocal countermeasures, tit-for-tat, and listed two diplomatic personnel of the Finnish embassy in Russia as "persona non grata" and expelled them.
Three, retreat.
Since the West imposed large-scale sanctions and isolation on Russia, Russia has withdrawn from the same group.
On the 17th, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the country had withdrawn from the Council of Baltic States, and believed that Western countries had monopolized the Council and were making plans that would harm Russia’s interests.
However, Russia said it would continue to cooperate with "responsible partners", and the withdrawal "has no impact" on Russia's presence in the region.
[Turkey: Disagree, don't bother]
At the same time, Turkey, which had actively organized negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, also became emotional.
A few days ago, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he did not take a positive attitude towards the matter.
On May 16, Erdogan reconfirmed that Turkey, a member of NATO, would not say "yes" to Finland and Sweden's application for "joining the treaty".
Turkish President Erdogan.
He criticized Sweden and Finland for not having a clear and open attitude towards anti-terrorist organizations, and even bombarded Sweden as a "hatching ground" for terrorist organizations, and believed that there were "terrorists" in the Swedish parliament.
Erdogan pointed out that if Sweden and Finland join NATO, NATO will become a "distribution center for representatives of terrorist organizations."
As for the plans of senior representatives of Sweden and Finland to travel to Turkey for talks, Erdogan said: "Are they here to convince us? Sorry, they don't bother."
Erdogan was referring to the PKK, which is regarded as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the European Union and the United States and has long been opposed to the Turkish government.
Turkey has previously criticized Sweden and others for refusing to repatriate 33 members of the PKK, even providing weapons to the organization and restricting the export of Turkish defense equipment.
On July 19, 2016 local time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke to government supporters who protested against the coup a few days ago.
In addition, Stockholm has been accused of supporting the US-based "Gülen Movement" ("Gülen Movement").
On July 15, 2016 local time, an attempted coup d'état with great influence took place in Turkey. The mutiny soldiers took control of several senior generals of the Turkish authorities. The incident killed more than 260 people and injured nearly 1,500 people. The coup d'etat was foiled by the authorities.
Erdogan, who was on holiday in the country's Aegean tourist city of Marmaris, escaped before the attackers attempted to bomb his hotel.
The Erdogan regime believes that Fethullah Gülen, the leader of the business empire and who holds the most influential religious group in Turkey, is the mastermind behind the coup.
Gulen, who is in exile in the United States, denies planning a coup d'etat. The Turkish side has asked the United States to extradite Gulen, but the United States has so far not agreed.
On July 17, 2016 local time, insurgents suspected of attacking the hotel where Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was staying were arrested.
On the 15th, during the NATO Foreign Ministers' informal meeting, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu praised Finland's mediation attitude and believed that Finland respected Ankara's concerns very much.
But he also criticized the Swedish foreign minister for "continuing to make provocative remarks" and "not constructive."
Turkey's "Sabah Daily" also pointed out that the country is more dissatisfied with Sweden than Finland's policy.
Because when Swedish public opinion was discussing the requirement to join NATO, some people answered that despite the existence of Article 5 of the NATO Charter, Sweden does not have to defend Turkey.
[White House: Confidence to reach a consensus]
In short, Turkey wants to take this opportunity to "ask prices" for Finland and Sweden to solve two problems:
1. Demand that the two countries end their support for Turkish anti-government organizations;
2. Lift the ban on exports to Turkey between the two countries.
Dr. Jan Agung, head of the foreign policy department of the SITA Research Center, which is close to the Ankara government, confirmed that Ankara would "give the green light" if the two countries "cut off support for terrorism" and assured Turkey in writing.
Turkish strategist Burhanuddin Duran believes that "as one of the most important members of NATO's 30 member states, Turkey naturally requires countries that conflict with its security interests to change its current policies."
In fact, the Turkish military is the second largest force in NATO after the United States. The country has always supported NATO expansion, and its speech is difficult to ignore.
NATO stipulates that when a new country applies to join, all member states must unanimously agree to join, otherwise it will not be realized.
Therefore, it is of great significance that Turkey has reservations on the accession applications of Finland and Sweden.
Secretary of State Blinken.
The United States and NATO welcomed Finland and Sweden with open arms, and even simplified the normal process of admitting new members in a bid to achieve the fastest expansion in NATO history.
On the 16th local time, White House spokesman Jean-Pierre said at a press conference that the United States has learned about Turkey's remarks.
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken believed that the two countries decided to apply, and the United States had "confidence to reach a consensus on its accession process."
It seems that how to reach an exchange of interests and persuade Turkey depends on the arrangements of the United States and NATO.
(Finish)