The British "Middle East Eye" website published

an article

on the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on relations between Moscow and Ankara.

The author of the article, Taha Ozhan, who works as director of research at the Ankara Institute, believes in his article on the British website that the Russian invasion of Ukraine came at a difficult time for Ankara, which has been in direct and indirect military confrontation with Russia since 2015, when Turkey shot down a Russian fighter plane on the border. with Syria.

This experience enabled her to become familiar with some Russian military and geopolitical tactics.

According to the article, Russia's control of the Black Sea in the north, while maintaining its forces in a country that borders Turkey to the south, is Syria, would pose a serious threat to Ankara, not to mention the great economic repercussions of the war that inflicted great losses on Turkish trade exchange with both Russia and Ukraine.

Ankara also fears the possibility of the war continuing for a long time, with all its repercussions, or the spillover of the conflict to other countries on the Black Sea.

With regard to Russia, the writer says that Moscow did not expect the West to provide overt military support to Ukraine, nor did it expect China to hesitate to support it.

It found itself largely alone after the invasion, a tactical and strategic disaster for it.

The article highlighted that despite the difficult situation that Turkey found itself in due to the invasion, it dealt with the crisis intelligently and adopted a balanced approach since the outbreak of the war.

Turkish mediation between the parties to the conflict created the appropriate geopolitical time and space for Ankara during the first phase of the crisis, and this role is likely to be strengthened in the coming days and weeks, according to the author of the article.

The writer said that Turkey’s recent decision to close its airspace to Russian military flights to Syria is an important step, and it contains an important message for all parties concerned with the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, that even if Turkey does not participate in the sanctions against Russia, it takes a position on the war in ways other.


fragile alliance

According to the article, Ankara has faced a number of geopolitical challenges in recent years related to the Russian intervention in Syria and the increasing threat of terrorism.

The failed 2016 coup attempt also complicated Turkey's political calculus.

With the rise to power of former President Donald Trump in the United States, which marked the beginning of an era of global uncertainty, Turkey began to develop a fragile alliance with Russia, despite their conflicting geopolitical interests.

This alliance has persisted despite repeated clashes between Russian and Turkish forces in proxy battlefields, and despite Ankara's increasingly strained relations with Europe and the United States and its increasingly role in NATO.

The writer pointed out that Russia contributed to the massive influx of refugees towards Turkey through its military intervention in Syria.

The deterioration of security in the Black Sea region as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine poses another threat to Turkey's stability, and deserves careful assessment and a cautious response from Ankara.

He also said that Ankara - through its mediation between Russia and Ukraine - showed the West that it is not a steadfast ally in Russia's camp, as it showed Russian President Vladimir Putin that it does not stand with the West unconditionally.

new reality

The writer believes that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the resulting new reality, represents an opportunity for Ankara to redraw its relations with Russia to suit its interests and go beyond the existing alliance.

It is certain that the new geopolitical reality will put additional pressure on Russia in Syria to serve Turkish interests.

At the same time, the new reality enables Turkey to strengthen its geopolitical position by improving its relations with the West.

It is expected that in light of the fracture in Russia's alliances at the present time, Moscow will become a burden on its partner countries, which will inevitably contribute to strengthening its relations with Ankara.

The article concludes that Turkey can use its membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to prevent Russia from extending its control over the Black Sea, and it can also take steps to secure its southern borders, rationalize its relations with Moscow and at the same time build new common ground with the West.