The program "60 Minutes" on the Russian state broadcaster "Rossiya 1" is not known for highlighting the Ukraine war in the way viewers outside of Russia are used to.

The war here is the "special operation" proclaimed by President Vladimir Putin, in which the Russian armed forces, together with the "people's militias" of the "people's republics" in Donbass, are systematically rushing from success to success.

Frederick Smith

Political correspondent for Russia and the CIS in Moscow.

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On Monday evening, however, military journalist Mikhail Khodaryonok painted a bleak picture of the Russian situation, in Ukraine and beyond.

Contrary to Russian euphoria about victory, the 68-year-old retired colonel, who served as an officer in the Operations Command of the Armed Forces General Staff until 2000, said one should not take "information sedatives": claims that Ukraine's armed forces are demoralized "correspond, to put it mildly, not reality".

Ukrainians ready to 'spill blood for their homeland'

The situation for Russia in Ukraine "obviously will deteriorate," said Khodaryonok.

Kyiv will get more military aid from the West and can "arm a million soldiers," Russia must take that into account.

In addition, the Ukrainian army is "ready to shed blood for their homeland".

Contrary to what “some of our political scientists” believed, signing a contract does not make you a professional soldier.

The "desire to protect one's homeland", as it exists in Ukraine, is decisive for the willingness to fight;

the troops that were ready to "shed blood for the ideas for which they are ready to fight" were victorious.

Russia's biggest problem, Khodaryonok continued, is “complete geopolitical loneliness and that practically the whole world is against us, even if we don't want to admit it.

We have to get out of this situation.” The presenter, Olga Skabeeva, who has seen countless state television shows, repeatedly tried to refute the retired colonel.

But Khodaryonok was undeterred, insisting that Russia's resources were limited and also calling for an end to the "saber-rattling" with Finland over the country's NATO membership application.

The military journalist is known as a warning against too much Russian exuberance: Earlier this year, Khodaryonok was among two former military officials and a former intelligence officer who publicly warned of an attack on Ukraine.

In an article published by Nezavisimaya Gazeta at the time, Khodaryonok dissected in detail "predictions of bloodthirsty political scientists" of a possible victory over Ukraine in "minutes".

There would be no "lightning war", wrote Khodaryonok at the time, warning of a guerrilla war like in Afghanistan or Chechnya and recalling the failure of the attempt to set up a "New Russia" in Ukraine as early as 2014.

At the time, Khodaryonok argued that an armed conflict with Ukraine was not in Russia's interests.

Plea for Russian “realism”

In mid-February, he was then invited to “60 Minutes”;

At the time, state television was still trying to ridicule American warnings of a Russian attack on Ukraine, some of which were linked to data.

It is possible that Khodaryonok was intended to counteract the impression created by his and other warnings that the Russian military leadership was at odds over the Ukraine question.

Contrary to corresponding "opinions in the Western media", the retired colonel said at the time that in the military leadership only "the will of the commander-in-chief" applies, i.e. Putin.

The Russian military has "surprises" ready and fulfills "every order".

But now Khodarjonok's plea for "realism" in front of an audience of millions contradicted the confident messages that the Kremlin is constantly sending out.

One interpretation of his appearance is that the Russian population is to be prepared for new victims;

a second, that the military, through its retired colonel, is trying to put pressure on it to get new resources, more weapons, more soldiers.

Of course, it cannot be ruled out that Khodarjonok's appearance can also be interpreted in a more prosaic, less conspirological way: a lonely admonisher summons up the courage to make some uncomfortable statements at the right moment.