In the wake of the corona pandemic and the government grants it has generated, the country's municipalities and regions have lined up positive economic results during both 2020 and 2021. Again this year, the results are expected to be strong, albeit at a more normal level.
But in 2023, the economic outlook looks bleaker.
Due to the war in Ukraine and the record high inflation, the municipalities 'and regions' total economic results risk landing at minus SEK 3 billion next year, unless measures are taken, says Annika Wallenskog, chief economist at SKR.
- We have a tougher real economy and also high inflation, which affects operations and increases pension costs.
May be relevant with tax increases
In the short term, it is likely that several municipalities and regions will use their performance equalization funds to achieve a zero result.
But in the longer term, it may also be relevant with efficiencies and savings as well as tax increases.
- It is also an alternative that the state pushes for higher state subsidies and they have been very generous with that, but now there are other things they want to invest in, says Annika Wallenskog.
Increased labor shortage
In addition, an increased shortage of labor is forecast, especially in health and care.
To meet the need for care, SKR estimates that close to 200,000 more people will need to take up employment in the country's municipalities and regions over the next ten years, in relation to the increase in people of working age during the same time span - 250,000.
- We have a rapid increase in people who are over 80 years old at the same time as we have a very slow increase in people of working age.
This means that we have a greater shortage of labor, not only in municipalities and regions but also in the business community, which creates a competitive situation.
Did this come like a bolt from the blue?
- It was very difficult for the municipalities and regions to know that there would be such high inflation.
We have not had that for a very long time.