In connection with this weekend's NATO summit in Berlin, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg commented on the war situation.
- Russia's war in Ukraine is not going as planned.
They failed to take Kyiv.
They retreat from the area around Kharkiv.
Their major offensive in the Donbas has stopped, he said.
- Ukraine can win this war.
Ukrainians bravely defend their homeland, he continued.
The United States expressed the same view as early as April.
Asked if he had given up hope of a Ukrainian victory, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said:
- Absolutely not.
Of course, they can win this.
"A lot that has to work"
Stoltenberg's statement is based on information he has received, believes Johan Norberg, military analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, FOI.
But he also sees it as a political statement in support of Ukraine.
- It is not impossible that he is right, but there is a lot that needs to be done for that to happen, he says.
Avoid major blows
Under the heading "Why Ukraine is winning" writes Phillips P. O'Brien, professor of peace and conflict studies at St.
Andrews University in Scotland, on what he considers to be a successful strategy used by Ukraine.
These include how they use air defenses and air forces to prevent Russian air domination.
But also that they avoid big battles and instead focus on a war of attrition where smaller groups with hand-held weapons knock out Russian trucks and tanks.
"This will probably not result in a speedy end to the war, but it will provide an opportunity to drain the Russian military of resources and thus Russia's political will to continue the war, which could pave the way for Ukraine to achieve its goals at the negotiating table.
The Ukrainian war style can achieve what previously seemed almost impossible: victory, "he concludes.