The second largest producer in the world... What are the effects of India's ban on wheat exports? And what about Egypt?

The New York Times published a report in which it spoke of the new global concern about India's ban on wheat exports.

The report said that India - which is the second largest producer of wheat in the world - is banning its exports of this commodity at a time when high food prices are worrying policy makers, after the country was filling the supply gap in international markets left by Russia's war on Ukraine.

It is likely that India's move will cause food prices to rise, and feed hunger in poor countries that depend on imports of this commodity.

According to the American newspaper, wheat prices have reached staggering levels due to supply concerns arising from the Ukraine war.

The report came to mention that India owns about 10% of the world's grain reserves, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture, a large surplus resulting from its huge support for its farmers.

The newspaper said in its report that for months, India was seen as a country that could help compensate for the shortfall in global supplies.

The report's authors, Samir Yasser and Victoria Kim, indicated that the wheat export ban, which was announced in the Commerce Department notice on Friday, was a change in the previous statements of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who told US President Joe Biden last April that his country was ready to provide the world with its reserves, He also urged local wheat producers to seize the opportunity, saying that Indian officials and financial institutions should support exporters.

The authors added that agricultural experts said that the continuation of the heat wave and rising temperatures may affect the harvest season this year, which may be a factor in the Indian government changing course and imposing a ban on wheat exports.

The report mentioned what was stated in the Indian Ministry of Commerce statement on Friday that wheat exports were banned immediately, with some exceptions, because the sudden rise in the price of the crop was threatening the food security of this country, while exports limited on demand would be allowed individually to governments whose supplies are Food is at risk.

The Indian authorities announced a ban on wheat exports, starting from Saturday, for fear of jeopardizing their food security.

The Directorate of Foreign Trade said, in an announcement published in the Official Gazette, on Friday, that the rise in global wheat prices threatens the food security of India and neighboring and vulnerable countries.

A blow to international organizations

The New York Times report said that banning wheat exports from India may deal another blow to international organizations working to confront the growing threat of widespread hunger.

He referred to what the World Food Program (a United Nations agency) warned of that an additional 47 million people may suffer from hunger, at a time when the effects of the successive war are added to the current crisis represented by sharp increases in food prices and a shortage of fertilizers.

The report quoted the agency's chief economist, Arif Hussain, as saying, "The agency was in discussions with India to take advantage of its stocks to alleviate the shortage," explaining that the "World Food Program" had urged countries not to impose a ban on exports because it might raise prices and reduce the availability, and said, "We hope countries to listen.”

Ashok Gulati, a prominent India agricultural economist, was also quoted as saying that “the ministry’s announcement reflected badly on India, given that it goes against the government’s previous comments on the desire to supply wheat to countries in need,” adding, “If there is a global impulse, you can tame it by opening the borders instead of shut it down."

The authors concluded their report by noting that this move is likely to be unpopular among India's farmers, at a time when one farmer in Punjab considered that "the ban will likely affect wheat farmers who have recently benefited from higher prices and demand."

Indian reassurances

On Sunday, the Indian Ministry of Commerce expressed its openness to exporting wheat to countries that suffer from food deficits at the governmental level, despite the recently announced restrictions, Anadolu Agency reported.

In a press conference, Minister BVR Subramaniam said that his country would keep the door open to exporting wheat to countries that suffer from food deficits at the governmental level.

He added that the government would also allow private companies to fulfill their previous commitments to export nearly 4.3 million tons of wheat until next July.

India mainly exports wheat to neighboring countries such as Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka.

Before the Ukraine-Russia war, Kyiv and Moscow accounted for a third of global wheat and barley exports, while Ukrainian exports declined significantly after the Russian military operation on February 24, following the closure of its ports and the destruction of its civilian infrastructure and grain silos, according to the Associated Press.

Wheat crops in India were also hit by a record heat wave, which disrupted production.

Although it is the second largest wheat producer in the world, India consumes most of the wheat it produces.

According to the Indian newspaper, The Indian Express, New Delhi's decision to ban wheat exports came a day after government data showed annual inflation rising to an 8-year high at 7.79 percent in April, and retail food price inflation rising to 8.38%. Anatolia report.

What about Egypt, the largest importer of wheat?

The Egyptian Minister of Supply Ali Moselhi said on Sunday that the decision to ban wheat exports taken by India does not apply to some governments, including the Cairo government.

"We are in talks with India, Australia, Kazakhstan and France to conclude direct wheat purchase agreements," he added.

Egypt, one of the world's largest wheat importers, relies heavily on shipments from Ukraine and Russia, and its government is seeking alternative supplies from countries including India.

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said that the country's strategic reserve of wheat is sufficient for 4 months.

On Saturday, India's ban on wheat exports came days after it said it aims to achieve record shipments this year, as a severe heat wave cut production and raised domestic prices to a record level, according to a Reuters report.

Indian government officials speaking just hours after the wheat export ban said there had been no significant decline in wheat production this year, but that unregulated exports had pushed up domestic prices.

Global buyers have been relying on India for supplies of wheat after exports from the Black Sea region have declined since Russia's war with Ukraine.

Before the ban, New Delhi aimed to ship 10 million tons this year.

"Although India is not one of the world's major wheat exporters, the ban may raise global prices to new record levels and affect poor consumers in Asia and Africa," a Reuters report says.

Protectionism puts additional burdens on the poor

About two weeks ago, a New York Times report said that dozens of countries had erected trade barriers in the past two months to protect scarce supplies of food and goods, but experts say the policies will only exacerbate the global food crisis.

The report indicated that Ukraine has limited exports of sunflower oil, wheat, oats and livestock in an attempt to protect its war-torn economy.

Russia, for its part, banned sales of fertilizers, sugar and grains to other countries.

Indonesia, which produces more than half of the world's palm oil, has also halted outbound shipments.

Turkey, in turn, stopped the export of butter, beef, lamb, goat, corn and vegetable oils.

According to the New York Times report, the Russian-Ukrainian war unleashed a new wave of protectionism as governments, striving to secure food and other goods for their citizens amid shortages and rising prices, erected new barriers to stop exports at their borders.

These measures are often well-intentioned, but like the panicked buying that stripped grocery shelves at various moments in the pandemic, the current wave of protectionism will only exacerbate the problems governments are trying to mitigate, trade experts warn.

He pointed out that the restrictions imposed on exports will raise the prices of grains, oils, meat and fertilizers to record numbers, and will even make them difficult to obtain.

This places an even greater burden on the world's poor, who pay a greater share of their income for food, raising the risk of social unrest in poor countries struggling with food insecurity, the report says.

The New York Times concluded that since the beginning of the year, countries have imposed a total of 47 restrictions on exports of foodstuffs and fertilizers, 43 of which have been imposed since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis in late February.