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News summary on the way home from work, Subsletter Evening.
In North Korea, where resident control is inconsistent, there are still signs that the controls to prevent the corona virus are not working.
There must already be a shortage of medicines, but it is reported that they are selling hoarding equipment.
It is presumed that the quarantine system is in trouble as the control is broken in front of Omicron.
External support may be a matter of time to resolve the 'great turmoil' described by Chairman Kim Jong-un.
North Korea unresponsive to proposal for working-level contact
The Ministry of Unification tried to send a notice to North Korea through the inter-Korean joint liaison office in the morning, but North Korea has not revealed its intention to accept it.
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The notice is said to suggest working-level contact related to cooperation in the prevention and control of the corona virus. Specifically, "In connection with the North Korean outbreak of the Omicron mutant virus, vaccines, medicines, masks, diagnostic tools, etc. will be provided, and technical cooperation such as our side's quarantine experience will be provided." The Ministry of Unification explained that it is a proposal to hold working-level contacts between the two Koreas for this purpose, while revealing that it is willing to proceed with it.”
The notice is in the name of Unification Minister Kwon Young-se, and the recipient is Kim Young-cheol, director of the United Front Department of the North.
An official from the Ministry of Unification said, "In a situation where close cooperation between the South and the North has been cut off, it is better for us to wait a little longer than to expect or hasten answers to questions that may be difficult for them suddenly." He even told reporters about it.
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Unification Minister Kwon Young-se, who took office today (16th), is also active in inter-Korean quarantine cooperation.
Corona situation, Pyongyang is the worst
Ryu Yong-chol, an official of the North Korean National Emergency Response Command, appeared on Chosun Central TV and introduced the corona situation by region as of 6 pm on the 14th.
The number of confirmed cases in Pyongyang city was 42, accounting for 25% of the total number of confirmed cases of 168.
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In particular, it was reported that the number of symptomatic cases in Pyongyang stood at 83,445 in just one day on the 14th, overwhelmingly among the 13 cities and provinces under direct control.
These statistics also confirm that the starting point of the spread of 'Stealth Omicron' (BA.2) was actually a large-scale political event such as a military parade held in Pyongyang last month.
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In the case of the military parade, it is said that 72 military units stationed in various places and students of military colleges participated.
At this time, both Chairman Kim and the youth were 'no-masks'.
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Unbelievable stats... "34,000 people could die"
According to North Korea's announcement, the cumulative number of people with fever (fever) nationwide is about 1213,000, and the death toll is 50. Let's calculate the fatality rate.
Since it comes out as 0.004%, it is a false statement.
Even in Korea, where most of the people have been vaccinated up to the second dose, the fatality rate is about 0.13%.
The other statistics are also unreliable, but the death toll seems to have been greatly reduced from reality, which can be interpreted with the intention of instilling the perception that it is a disease that does not die even if caught.
That way the public will not be disturbed.
Oh Myeong-don, a professor of infectious diseases at Seoul National University Hospital, chair of the Central Clinical Committee for Emerging Infectious Diseases, attended a seminar and estimated that at least 34,000 people could die.
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Professor Oh predicted that the full-fledged epidemic started on April 15, and based on the mortality data released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), he predicted that the number of deaths due to the Omicron epidemic in North Korea would be 34,540 in the future. I predicted it.
Professor Oh said this after opening several possibilities, saying, "It is a conservative estimate," but "it may be reduced enough depending on North Korea's response."
"I sincerely hope that this figure turns out to be absurdly exaggerated when looking back after the fad has passed."
Health authorities also said, "Infection seems difficult to control"
There was a corona briefing by the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters at the time the Ministry of Unification tried to notify North Korea, and the quarantine authorities expressed concern that the North Korean corona situation could be much more serious than the official announcement.
Son Young-rae, head of the social strategy division at the Central Accident Resolving Headquarters, explained the problems that followed, saying that North Korea seems to be diagnosing confirmed patients only with symptoms without a diagnostic test.
“In Omicron, about half of the confirmed cases are asymptomatic and the fever is about 10%, so it can be interpreted that there are actually more confirmed cases. It is not possible to block the spread of infection,” he expressed concern.
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This means that even those with symptoms have no way to deal with the spread of the virus in the early asymptomatic period.
It is estimated that the situation will be difficult to control the spread of infection.
Vaccination is so inadequate that it will be difficult to prevent serious illness and prevent death.
Our fatality rate comes from a combination of early diagnosis and extensive immunization.
If it is not combined, the fatality rate can be very high even for Omicron.
There is a risk that the fatality rate is high in the elderly.
Due to the lack of information, various assumptions are being made.
Medical and quarantine difficulties revealed
According to the North Korean Central News Agency report, Chairman Kim Jong-un presided over a meeting of the Politburo again yesterday, a holiday, and he issued a special order to send in the People's Army to stabilize the drug, saying that medicines were not being distributed in time.
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The news agency also said, "He pointed out the failure to correct various negative phenomena in the handling and sales of pharmaceuticals nationwide, and the director of the Central Prosecutors' Office who does not feel any responsibility or remorse and does not play any role even in a severe situation. The negligent act was harshly rebuked." The negative phenomenon can be seen as implying corruption such as drug hoarding and illegal distribution.
He rebuked prosecutors for failing to legally monitor and control this absurdity.
Chairman Kim also gave field guidance to the pharmacy.
Even in Pyongyang, medicines were not supplied in a timely manner and even the military was put into operation in a situation where hoarding was rampant.
Without resolving the drug supply problem, it seems difficult to resolve the 'great turmoil' expressed by Chairman Kim.
Given the spread of Omicron and the difficulty of quarantine control, the possibility of accepting external support is gradually increasing.
Of course, even if you receive support, you are more likely to receive support from China or the international community than from the South.
a piece of the day
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A helicopter crashed near the summit of Seonjasan in Geoje-si, Gyeongsangnam-do, killing the captain and injuring two people.
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(Photo = Yonhap News, Chosun Central TV screen capture)