Some things sound almost too banal to say: If you want to win an election, you have to get your supporters to vote.

The SPD did not succeed in North Rhine-Westphalia.

More than 300,000 people who voted for her in 2017 preferred to stay at home this time.

That was also a problem in Schleswig-Holstein, but far more went over to the ruling CDU there.

Timo Steppat

Editor in Politics.

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The SPD in North Rhine-Westphalia lost only 30,000 votes to the CDU, and many more went to the Greens (260,000).

But the non-voters are likely to hurt the most, because it shows that the SPD was unable to convince its own supporters.

It is one of the reasons that led to a massive nine percentage point drop in voter turnout.

While the CDU and SPD were neck and neck in the polls for weeks at 30 percent, Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst's party recently managed to gain a lead of three percentage points - on Sunday the SPD was ultimately nine percentage points behind.

Nevertheless, it is not a brilliant victory for the CDU.

The results of the black and yellow state government can be described as mixed from the voters' point of view: Within the CDU supporters, the attribution of competences in terms of the economy, internal security and education policy has fallen significantly compared to 2017, but at least with regard to the fight against crime it is still on a par high level (44 percent).

No rotating election, but also no continuation

Almost half of the voters are satisfied with the work of black and yellow, the other half is not.

That's not going to continue, but it's also not a deselection or change of mood.

The FDP, which has been responsible for the responsible department for the past five years, gets the big anger about education policy in Corona times.

66 percent gave her responsibility.

There were three main reasons that helped the CDU to win: First, it was able to attract massive voters who voted for the Liberals in 2017;

it was obviously more important to them that the CDU continued to govern than their previous partner, which more than halved.

Second, the CDU has succeeded in mobilizing its own supporters, who live mainly in small towns and communities.

Thirdly, it is the elderly among whose electorate the CDU can significantly increase its popularity.

It was clear early on that a win in North Rhine-Westphalia depends on this group, which is not only large in terms of numbers, but also votes more reliably than the youngsters.

Wüst owes his victory to the pensioners.

Not a big bonus, but Wüst is better known

The party won by no means only because of Hendrik Wüst.

There is no candidate effect comparable to that of Daniel Günther in Schleswig-Holstein.

While more than half of the CDU supporters there voted for the party because of him, it was just one in three in North Rhine-Westphalia.

Even if Hendrik Wüst, who has only been in office for six months, could not rely on any major bonuses, his personality values ​​have certainly increased over the past few months.

The majority of voters rate neither Wüst nor Kuchaty positively in terms of credibility, sympathy or expertise;

nevertheless, Wüst was ahead.

Two somewhat colorless candidates, from which the better-known ultimately benefits.

Kuchaty thinks it's okay to have his own followers.

But only one in four voted for the SPD because of him - not enough for a change of government.

Even if Hendrik Wüst did not win over any old comrades, as the voter migration shows, he also did not serve as an enemy to vote for Kuschaty as an alternative.

The mobilization problem of the SPD can be seen across all age groups, the party is showing significant losses everywhere.

Both mainstream parties fare poorly among young people.