After the election in NRW: Difficulty for Scholz

It can go that fast.

After the federal election – it was only eight months ago – the SPD commented with disgust that the weakened runner-up, the CDU/CSU, which failed in the Laschet-Söder power struggle, could still claim the government contract for itself.

Now it is even more clearly in second place and weakened in the most populous federal state - but the SPD was already working on an assignment on election night that would assign it to form a government.

How about: dare more progress!?

The traffic light mission could do well with a revival by NRW after it was forgotten due to the pandemic and the Ukraine war and the "leadership" of Merkel's successor Olaf Scholz at the same time.

A success for the CDU would also be a portent for the federal government.

In NRW, an election victory for the CDU weighs several times over.

She could not count on Hendrik Wüst having a Scholz, Günther or Rehlinger effect, i.e. a bonus for the strong popular figure who convinces voters, no matter which party he or she is in.

Wüst was in office for too short a time and had not shined enough before.

Nevertheless, he managed to improve the CDU result with Armin Laschet at the top from five years ago.

Laschet will also see this as a success for himself, since Wüst is “his” man after all.

The second side of the CDU's success is the country in which it was achieved.

NRW was and is difficult to win for the CDU.

Wüst not only surpassed Laschet's election victory, but also that of Jürgen Rüttgers, the CDU Prime Minister, who had not managed to hold his ground in Düsseldorf for an electoral term.

This is what makes Wüst's electoral success so unique - and looking back, the defeat of the CDU in the federal elections is not a signal of a turning point, but an unstable stroke of luck for the SPD.

What speaks for the traffic light, what for black and green?

However, the CDU does not have itself to thank for its election victory alone.

In his first statement on the evening of the election, Wüst addressed this by not only thanking his own party, but also the big loser in the election, the FDP.

Without her, Laschet would not have come to power in 2017 and Wüst is now benefiting from the liberal voter migration towards the CDU.

In the next few days, however, he will fear his coalition partner more than he will pity him.

After their brilliant upswing, not only the Greens have it in their hands who will govern in NRW in the future.

The question is whether they want to do this in association with the FDP, as in the federal government.

They are dependent on the Liberals if the Greens and SPD want to forge a traffic light coalition.

On the evening of the election, the SPD leadership in Berlin and Düsseldorf gave the reason for this: the CDU had grown, but Wüst's government, the black-yellow coalition, had been voted out.

This is an attempt to turn the stroke of luck of the federal election into the centre-left project that was presented in the coalition negotiations.

But can the FDP play along?

Their participation in the traffic light coalition has not yet been rewarded.

There are still a number of decisions to be made in the federal government in which she can distinguish herself again.

But the groundwork for the election period has been laid, and not enough is being heard from the FDP.

After all, she was not only elected for her favorite socio-political projects, which she associates with the Greens, but also for economic policy common sense.

Christian Lindner has so far been struggling in vain against Robert Habeck – as you can also see in NRW.

So black and green?

The CDU has recently done everything to make this path palatable to the Greens.

Green politicians were courted, Lindner criticized.

After the deep fall in the federal elections, the resolutions to profile oneself in the political center against the SPD and the Greens were put on hold for the time being.

In Kiel, the CDU even risks alienating the FDP, actually its natural partner.

The Greens, on the other hand, have to ask themselves whether, given the tensions in the traffic light coalition, a Jamaica coalition would not have been the better solution.

You could send the signal from NRW to Berlin: things can also be done, maybe even better, with the CDU.

But if the Greens do that, possibly in two federal states at the same time, they will no longer be able to declare the coalition in Berlin a matter close to their hearts.

This is only possible if they present the parliamentary group and the Adenauer House as "from yesterday" in comparison to the CDU state associations.

In any case, Friedrich Merz will have to pay close attention to the fact that he is not being treated as the man of the future, but rather one CDU election winner after the other.