Whether a result is good or bad, you often don't know immediately in life when it occurs.
And how it is evaluated depends not least on what was previously hoped for and what will be possible in the future.
This applies in many ways to the SPD in the elections in North Rhine-Westphalia on Sunday.
On the one hand, the Social Democrats, who have repeatedly talked about a head-to-head race with the CDU in recent weeks, are clearly behind the Union according to the first figures – the difference is around eight percentage points according to extrapolations.
Markus Wehner
Political correspondent in Berlin.
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In addition, just a week after the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein, in which they experienced a debacle with only 16 percent, the SPD has again recorded its historically worst result in the history of the Federal Republic in a federal state.
Because for the then historically poor 31.2 percent, which was achieved in the surprisingly lost election in 2017 under the then SPD Prime Minister Hannelore Kraft, it was not enough for the comrades on Sunday – they see projections for just over 27 percent of the Voices.
Actually, another bitter evening for the SPD and its Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who wanted to proclaim a “social democratic decade” after winning the federal election.
But if you take a closer look at where the SPD comes from and what could ultimately happen in the formation of a government, then the evening may not be quite as bad for the comrades as it seems at first glance.
On the one hand, the once so proud NRW-SPD had dealt with itself for so long after losing the Kraft election that in polls at the beginning of last year it was an embarrassing 17 percent and at times even fell behind the Greens.
The hard times, when the party couldn't get its feet on the ground, didn't seem to want to end.
Only when the former Minister of Justice and then parliamentary group leader Thomas Kutschaty asserted himself as state chairman and then as top candidate in March 2021 did things quickly go uphill and then even towards 30 percent.
In the general election, the SPD was
mainly due to the Laschet debacle, with 29.1 percent again clearly ahead of the CDU, which only got 26 percent.
There was no longer any talk of the rising Greens losing them.
After four bitter years, the SPD could suddenly dream of power on the Rhine and Ruhr again.
Whether the dream that you could push the CDU out of the government again with Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst and provide the head of government yourself in Düsseldorf remains open on Sunday evening.
Because the Social Democrats could also govern as runners-up, if it is enough for red-green.
According to projections, it is not certain whether this will happen.
If, on the other hand, it is not enough for red-green, then a social democratic Prime Minister Kuchaty could also govern with a traffic light alliance - provided that the FDP manages to enter the state parliament.
That's what it looks like on Sunday evening, projections see the Free Democrats just above the five percent hurdle.
"We are not dissatisfied with the result," said SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert in the evening on ZDF.
"It will be possible,
to bring about a change of government in NRW.” The SPD came to replace the state government, which was successful.
There are now several ways to form a new government - with a "certain probability", according to Kühnert, the SPD could govern.