Reviving the old or an alternative agreement? 4 questions to understand the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file and possible scenarios

Al Jazeera Net - Special

Two months after its suspension, the European and Iranian sides announced an agreement to resume the Vienna negotiations to revive the nuclear agreement, coinciding with discussions held by the European Coordinator for Nuclear Negotiations Enrique Mora with Iran's chief negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani at the Iranian Foreign Ministry headquarters.

In light of the visit, the European Union’s foreign and security policy chief Josep Borrell spoke about reopening the nuclear negotiations file and the possibility of reaching a final agreement, while Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian tweeted that “a good and trustworthy agreement is within reach, if the United States takes action.” The United States made its political decision and adhered to its commitments," but without giving further information.

Al Jazeera Net explored 4 questions about the opinions of diplomats and academics in Tehran, in order to present an approach that helps to understand the factors affecting the resumption of nuclear negotiations, and possible scenarios regarding the Iranian nuclear file.

Borrell announced the possibility of reaching a final agreement (Reuters)

What factors played a role in persuading the parties to the nuclear agreement to resume the Vienna negotiations?

The Iranian diplomat, the former ambassador to Norway, Sri Lanka and Hungary, Abdolreza Farji Rad, believes that the internal developments in both Iran and the United States have prompted the main two sides in the Vienna negotiations to show flexibility in their positions, in addition to the developments in the Ukrainian crisis that have always urged the European side to pay Towards resolving the thorny issues between Tehran and Washington.

And the Iranian diplomat indicated - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that the midterm elections scheduled for next November in the United States constitute an important motivation for the democratic administration to continue negotiations and resolve the Iranian nuclear file, adding that the Iranian government's recent project to surgery the economy and lift government support for basic commodities that it The doubling of prices has a remarkable role in urging Tehran to continue negotiations to lift sanctions and improve citizens' lives.

The Russian war on Ukraine also constitutes an incentive for the European side to move the stagnant waters and work to bring Iran and the United States closer to resolving the thorny issues between them, according to Farji Rad, who describes Mora's visit to Tehran as a practical expression of Washington's approval of Iranian demands.

What is the nature of the potential agreement on the Iranian nuclear deal?

Professor of International Relations at the University of Tehran, Rahman Ghahramanpour, believes that the Revolutionary Guards have become the most prominent thorny issue in the upcoming nuclear negotiations, and that how to agree on dealing with this file will have major repercussions in Iran and America, pointing out that either side has retreated from its demands regarding the Revolutionary Guards. It will negatively affect his internal policy.

Qahramanpour - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - pointed to the conflicting opinions in both Iran and the United States regarding whether or not to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the list of terrorism, revealing that some of the nuclear negotiations parties have put forward a proposal to dismantle the Revolutionary Guards from the Quds Force and remove the name of the first from the list of terrorism and keep The second in it, noting that the negotiations in this regard have not yet succeeded.

He expected that the nature of the nuclear negotiations would revolve around temporary solutions under the title "pause for pause", in preparation for creating the conditions for reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement within the next few months, explaining that if a temporary alternative agreement is agreed upon, then Tehran will accept the implementation of specific commitments, and in return. Washington will pledge to lift a number of sanctions, notably the sale of oil and the release of Iranian funds frozen abroad.

What are the possible scenarios for the future of the nuclear negotiations in Vienna?

The Iranian diplomat, former ambassador to Britain, Jalal Sadatian, believes that despite the European side's optimism for the resumption of the Vienna negotiations, the complex developments in the Middle East and the Ukrainian crisis would dispel hopes of reviving the nuclear agreement, stressing that the ongoing talks on the Iranian nuclear go beyond the nuclear file to other issues. Other regional and international ones, including revenge for the commander of the Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, and the removal of the Revolutionary Guards from the list of terrorism.

Sadatian explained - in his speech to Al Jazeera Net - that the second scenario regarding the Iranian nuclear is the return of the parties to the nuclear agreement to the negotiating table in Vienna, stressing that the transition of the Iranian and American sides to direct negotiations will accelerate the pace of reaching a possible agreement.

Although the specter of a failure of the negotiations - if they start - still hangs over its airspace and constitutes the third scenario, according to the Iranian diplomat, he continues, noting that the chances of reaching an agreement in Vienna are greater than ever and that the fourth scenario is likely in the coming period.

What are the reasons and repercussions for Mora's detention at Frankfurt Airport, Germany, on his way from Tehran to Brussels?

"Borrell's hasty joy at the European side's success in moving the stagnant waters, and the Zionist concern about resolving the Iranian nuclear file and lifting international pressures on Tehran were a major reason behind the detention of Mora in Germany," according to Iranian diplomat Abdolreza Farji Rad.

The European Coordinator for Nuclear Negotiations, Enrique Mora, wrote on his Twitter account - the day before yesterday, Friday - that the German police detained him for a short period without explanation at Frankfurt airport on his way to Brussels, adding that the German police released him after 20 minutes after they took his passport and phones. .

Fergie Rad described - in his speech to Al Jazeera Net - the German move against the diplomat, Mora, who holds a Spanish diplomatic passport, as a "big mistake", stressing that the passage of time will reveal the secrets of this German behavior, no matter how Berlin tries to justify it.

On social media, the Iranians demanded that their government condemn the German move, given that Mora was an official guest in Tehran.

For his part, Abdullah Kanji, director of the newspaper "Joan" (affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard), demanded his country's government not to remain silent about what its guest was exposed to in Germany, while academic Reza Nasri stressed the need not to allow some countries to pressure Tehran's guests, and urged The latter requested clarifications about the incident from Berlin.