Elections that raise little hope… The Lebanese vote on Sunday to choose their MPs in elections that are expected to maintain the status quo in favor of traditional political forces, yet held responsible for the worst socio-economic crisis in the country. country's history.
A test for opposition groups
This election represents a first test for opposition groups that emerged following a popular uprising sparked in October 2019 to demand the departure of a political class accused of corruption and incompetence.
From 6 a.m. Paris time, the polling stations opened for some 3.9 million voters called to the polls to renew the 128 members of Parliament.
The results are expected on Monday.
An important security deployment was noted by an AFP photographer, in the midst of representatives of political parties and volunteers.
"I came to vote because it's the least we can do in Lebanon," Nayla, a 28-year-old student, told AFP after voting in Gemmayzeh, an eastern district of Beirut.
“We hope that the expected change will come after the difficult years that Lebanon has known,” she added, saying that she was “in favor of change, (…) and new faces”.
According to experts, independent candidates are expected to win more seats than in the last election in 2018, but no major change in the balance of power is expected.
Little change to expect?
The elections are being held in accordance with a law adopted in 2017, tailored to the advantage of the ruling parties, and in the absence of the main Sunni leader Saad Hariri, who is boycotting them.
The 2018 legislative elections were dominated by the pro-Iranian Shiite movement Hezbollah - the only Lebanese faction to have kept its weapons after the civil war (1975-1990) - and its allies, in particular the President's Free Patriotic Movement (CPL) Michel Aoun and the Amal movement, led by the Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri.
“Paradoxically, the first national elections in Lebanon since the start of the crisis seem unlikely to make much difference,” writes researcher Sam Heller in an article published on the website of the American think tank The Century Foundation.
“It seems unlikely that these elections will significantly change the composition of the Lebanese parliament or the way politics is conducted in the country,” he adds.
A socio-economic crisis the worst in the world since 1850
This election takes place as Lebanon has been mired since 2019 in a socio-economic crisis classified by the World Bank as the worst in the world since 1850 and caused by decades of mismanagement and corruption of a ruling class almost unchanged for decades. decades.
In almost two years, the national currency has lost more than 90% of its value on the black market and the unemployment rate has almost tripled.
And nearly 80% of the population now lives below the poverty line, according to the UN.
These are also the first legislative elections since the devastating explosion at the port of Beirut on August 4, 2020, which killed more than 200 people and ravaged entire districts of the capital.
The free fall of the economy, insecurity and the collapse of basic public services have pushed a large number of families and young people to leave the country.
“These elections represent a chance for change”
But some, like Mariana Vodolian, spokesperson for the families of the victims of the explosion at the port, aspire to change through these elections.
“We are against this political class which has governed us for thirty years and which is responsible for the economic collapse and the explosion,” the 32-year-old woman told AFP.
“These elections represent a chance for change, to hold those responsible to account so that we can continue to live in this country,” she added.
Despite the grumbling, the political class is taking advantage of the absence of the state, now unable to provide basic services such as electricity, medicine or fuel, to activate its networks of traditional community patronage, seeking to win the favor of voters by offering financial assistance.
An approach that could pay off in a context of deep crisis, especially since the independent candidates lack experience, resources and do not present a united front, according to experts.
In an April survey by the NGO Oxfam on voter turnout, 43.55% of Lebanese polled said they would abstain.
More than half of them justified their decision by the absence of “promising candidates”.
During the legislative elections organized for Lebanese expatriates, on May 6 and 8, the participation rate was around 63%.
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