The global new crown epidemic is far from over
To appreciate the real threat of the new coronavirus, the "excess death" figures are the most convincing.
On May 5, local time in Geneva, an assessment report released by the World Health Organization showed that between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021, the number of direct or indirect deaths caused by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, that is, "excess deaths" The number is about 14.9 million, and the actual range is between 13.3 million and 16.6 million.
"Excess deaths" refers to the difference between the actual number of deaths globally and the normal number of deaths estimated based on the years in which the pandemic did not occur, including deaths directly caused by the epidemic and indirect due to the impact of the pandemic on the health system and society, etc. Relative reductions in related deaths, such as traffic accidents and work-related injuries, are also counted.
According to the latest data released by the World Health Organization, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the world has exceeded 510 million.
The number of confirmed cases continues to rise, the virus continues to mutate, and the global epidemic is far from over.
The proportion of "excess deaths" relative to the total population is higher than the global average in several high-income countries, including the US, Germany, and the UK
The WHO report is the most authoritative research report on the true death toll caused by the global new crown pandemic so far.
The figure of 14.9 million is almost three times the number of deaths directly caused by the new crown epidemic that countries have officially reported to the WHO.
This means that about 1 in 500 people in the world will die from causes related to the new crown epidemic.
According to statistics, 84% of the world's "excess deaths" occurred in Southeast Asia, Europe and the Americas, and about 68% of the "excess deaths" were concentrated in ten countries including India, Russia, Indonesia, the United States, Brazil, Mexico, and Peru.
Middle-income countries accounted for 81% of the 14.9 million deaths, while high- and low-income countries accounted for 15% and 4%, respectively.
In terms of gender and age, male deaths globally are higher than females, with 57% males and 43% females, with higher deaths among older adults.
Data on "excess deaths" is an important measure of understanding the impact of the pandemic.
Samira Asma, WHO's assistant director-general for data, analysis and delivery, said the true extent of "excess deaths" was often hidden due to limited investment in data systems in many countries.
This latest estimate has been generated using the best available data, robust methodologies and a transparent approach.
"These indicators provide a more complete picture of the extent of the pandemic and can be used to guide and implement public health policy. When we underestimate mortality rates, it can lead to underinvestment and intervention in the health care system," said Samira Asma. .
The report shows that the proportion of "excess deaths" relative to the total population is higher than the global average in several high-income countries, including the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
Take the United States as an example. According to WHO data, from the beginning of the new crown pandemic to December 31, 2021, the number of "excess deaths" in the United States exceeded 930,000, while the number of deaths counted by Johns Hopkins University during the same period The number of cases is 820,000.
Some medical experts said that the new crown pneumonia may exacerbate existing health problems, and the epidemic will have a significant knock-on impact on the medical system and other aspects of society.
Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that most of the "excess deaths" are caused by the new crown virus.
At the same time, deaths from heart disease, high blood pressure, dementia and other diseases in the U.S. have surged significantly during the two-year-long pandemic.
The data also showed that since the outbreak, the number of deaths from ischemic heart disease in the United States was nearly 30,000 higher than expected, and the death toll from hypertension was nearly 62,000 higher than expected.
On the other hand, the WHO pointed out that countries with low "excess mortality" include China, which has implemented "dynamic zeroing", and Australia, Japan and Norway, which have imposed strict travel restrictions.
The data is sobering.
"This shows not only the impact of the pandemic, but also the need for all countries to invest in more resilient health systems to maintain essential health services during crises, including stronger health information systems." WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus Said.
Pandemic risk is still severe, new crown cases in many countries in the United States and Europe climb again
"The number of new cases and hospitalizations of the new crown in the United States is on the rise." On May 6, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a weekly report saying that in the week ended May 5, the average daily number of new cases in the United States was about 67,000. The cumulative death toll is expected to surpass 1 million soon.
There is also an "rising tide" of new confirmed cases of new crowns in children in the United States.
According to the latest report released by the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children's Hospital Association, since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, nearly 13 million children in the United States have been diagnosed with the new crown virus. Since this year alone, more than 5 million new children have been diagnosed in the United States.
The long-term impact of COVID-19 on children is still unknown, and the American Academy of Pediatrics says there is an urgent need to collect more data on the outbreak across all age groups to assess the severity of the disease caused by the mutated new coronavirus and its potential long-term impact on children's health.
The raging epidemic has put the lives of special groups such as the local elderly and children in deep trouble.
American media recently disclosed that more than 200,000 children in the United States have unfortunately become "new crown orphans" due to the death of their parents or other guardians in the new crown epidemic.
These children face psychological, physical and even survival difficulties, but they cannot get the help they deserve.
In view of the decline in the protective effect of vaccines, the decline in human immunity caused by infection, and the increase in mutated viruses, the United States may continue to fall into a vicious circle of repeated epidemics.
ABC reported on May 6 that as many as 100 million Americans could be infected with the new crown in the three to four months of this fall and winter, according to a model, a senior U.S. government official said.
"It's going to be much worse than what we've come up with in a simulation run of the COVID-19 environment," said Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina's Gillings School of Global Public Health. "
As the winter in southern Africa is about to enter, the new crown epidemic in South Africa has recently rebounded.
The prevention and control situation of several neighboring countries of South Africa and some countries in central and eastern Africa is also not optimistic.
According to the latest weekly epidemic report released by the WHO Regional Office for Africa, as of the week before May 1, there were 37,741 new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in Africa, a 20% increase from the previous week, of which 32,852 were from South Africa.
"The new crown epidemic is only entering a new phase, it is far from over." European Commission Commissioner for health and food safety Stella Kirakidis said in an interview with Cyprus Broadcasting Corporation on May 4, EU member states are in There is no room for complacency in dealing with this outbreak, and warn that the danger of a new wave of outbreaks is always present.
Kirakidis mentioned in an interview that most EU countries have cancelled or relaxed epidemic prevention and control measures, but there are still 90 million people in EU countries who have not been vaccinated, and many people are hesitant to receive the third dose of the vaccine. The European Commission is concerned that these people are at risk of contracting Covid-19 and spreading a new wave of infections.
The Omicron strain is still mutating and is 'as severe' as other variants in terms of pathogenicity
At present, the Ormicron strain is still the mainstream variant that is prevalent in the world.
On April 27, the WHO's weekly report on the new crown epidemic showed that in the past 30 days, 99.7% of the more than 250,000 new crown virus sequences uploaded to the global influenza shared database were Omicron.
Disturbingly, the Omicron strain is still mutating.
On May 4, Tedros said at a press conference in Geneva that two subtypes of the Omicron strain, BA.4 and BA.5, were responsible for the recent surge in cases in South Africa.
Professor Tulio Oliveira, a virologist at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa, said on social media that BA.4 and BA.5 appear to be more contagious than BA.2, the two new variants "Mutations in lineages that allow viruses to evade immunity".
Why can the Omicron strain evolve such a "variety" of subtype variants?
WHO experts pointed out that the genetic diversity of Omicron shows that the new coronavirus continues to face natural selection pressure in an attempt to adapt to its host and environment.
Previously, it was thought that the Omicron strain was more contagious than other variants, but less severe.
However, a Reuters report on May 6 pointed out that according to a study of 130,000 people in the United States, the new coronavirus Omicron variant was "as severe" as the previous variant in terms of pathogenicity.
Based on the medical records of 130,000 patients with new coronary pneumonia, the researchers added factors such as vaccination rates and statistical data integrity into the calculation process as impact indexes, and found that different new coronavirus variants dominate the world. The hospitalization and death rates of people infected with the new coronavirus were almost the same in each period.
This research is still in the peer review stage.
"For a lot of people, it's not a mild infection at all," stressed Herba Mustafa from Johns Hopkins University in the United States. The risk is comparable to a patient infected with the delta strain."
There is no doubt that continuous monitoring of the new coronavirus variant will be necessary in the future.
Wendy Buckley, a virologist at Imperial College London, said a few days ago that her view was negative as to whether the future trend of the new coronavirus mutation must be "continued weakening of virulence".
In addition to common mutations, SARS-CoV-2 evolves rapidly through recombination.
If one Omicron variant recombines with another SARS-CoV-2 variant, it is possible to produce a strain that can both immune evasion and cause more severe disease.
"It would be good news if these emerging mutants could herald a milder course of the virus, but biology tells us that this won't be the case forever," Buckley said.
The sequelae of "lying flat" have gradually emerged, and fast and accurate "dynamic clearing" is the best choice at this stage based on my country's epidemic situation
While the new crown virus is still raging around the world, some countries have chosen to gradually relax epidemic prevention measures.
At present, the sequelae of this model have gradually emerged.
Several public health experts around the world have called for "public health measures should be rebuilt instead of letting the public take the risk themselves".
"Lying flat" does not allow the public to achieve once and for all.
Take the United Kingdom, which announced its "Coexistence with Covid-19" plan at the end of February, as an example. Its medical system is under unprecedented pressure.
The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that around 1 in 13 Britons are diagnosed.
"Hospitals, schools and businesses are finding that one in 10 people is sick and it's hard to function properly," said Danny Altman, a well-known British immunologist.
Research shows that one in five hospitalized patients with Covid-19 is still unable to work after five months; 200,000 more people are unemployed or looking for work due to long-term ill health.
Will "Lying Flat" Save the Economy?
On the contrary, according to the British "Guardian" report, the US economy fell by about 0.35% in the first quarter of this year, with soaring inflation, Omicron variants and supply chain problems dragging down economic growth.
GDP in the 19-member euro zone grew by 0.2% in the first quarter of this year, compared with 0.3% in the previous quarter.
The French economy stagnated in the first quarter and Italy's economic output even contracted.
Scientific data shows that Omicron is far more transmissible than the flu and other previous variants of the new coronavirus.
In terms of case fatality rate, the average case fatality rate of influenza in the world is 0.1%, while the average case fatality rate of the Omicron variant is about 0.75%, which is 7 to 8 times that of influenza. The elderly population, especially the elderly over 80 years old The fatality rate is more than 10%, which is nearly 100 times that of ordinary influenza.
"We have a huge elderly population in China, and so many children and immunocompromised people, and the vaccination rate is not high enough to form this immune barrier against severe illness and death. In this case, once relaxed, the virus will definitely It is widespread. A large number of infected people, multiplied by the severe disease rate and case fatality rate, will undoubtedly cause a lot of severe disease and death. For a country and a nation, it will be a huge disaster." The leader of the epidemic response and disposal work of the National Health and Health Commission Liang Wannian, head of the expert group, said.
On the other hand, the emergence of a large number of severe cases will in turn run on the medical system, which will inevitably lead to unmet demand for normal medical services, forming a vicious circle and ultimately affecting people's normal production and life.
Various facts show that so far, China's "dynamic clearing" is the best method.
Perseverance is victory, persistence will lead to victory, persistence will surely lead to victory.
Fast and accurate "dynamic clearing" is the best choice at this stage based on the current epidemic situation in my country.
Strictly, practically and quickly implement the prevention and control measures in every link, and continuously improve the level of scientific and precise prevention and control, so as to achieve the maximum prevention and control effect at the minimum cost, and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development.