[NHK] "Crowded" in an unexpected place in Shanghai, where strict restrictions on going out continue due to the Zero Corona policy. What is the current state of the Chinese economy, which is in a difficult situation?

Shanghai's “turmoil” revealed by independent analysis China's economy in trouble with zero corona May 10 17:36

The Chinese economy is now in dire straits.

The biggest factors are the spread of the new coronavirus and strict measures by the zero corona policy.

The entire city, including Shanghai, has become "quiet" and is in a situation where it seems to have stopped functioning.

On the other hand, behind the scenes, it has become clear through independent analysis and interviews of data that there is also serious "congestion" that can have a major impact on the world.

Is "quiet" a risk to the world economy?

"The failure of China's Zero-COVID policy could be the greatest risk in the world

this year," a forecast made earlier this year by American research firm Eurasia Group.

And now it is pointed out that the prediction is realistic.

In China, the infection has spread rapidly since March, and strict restrictions on going out have been introduced in various places including Shanghai.

There are more than 20 cities with strict restrictions, such as Guangdong / Shenzhen * with a population of about 17 million, Shaanxi / Xian with a population of about 13 million, and Heilongjiang / Harbin with a population of about 10 million.

(* "River" in "Sat")

In these cities, going out is not allowed at all, or shopping for daily necessities is limited to a small part, leading to the shutdown of factories and the decline in personal consumption, resulting in a situation where urban functions have stopped. I did.

The "crowd" that is happening behind the scenes

At the same time as the state of a quiet city is conveyed, it is a certain "crowd" that is becoming more serious.

It is the turmoil that is occurring at Shanghai Port, the world's largest port and international logistics hub.

We have now independently analyzed data on port conditions.

The movement of a cargo ship is illustrated by receiving data on the position information of vessels navigating the sea and rivers from the "IHI Jet Service," which analyzes satellite data.

Then, based on the nautical charts and the story of the person in charge of the shipping company, we narrowed down the area where cargo ships wait offshore to enter the port of Shanghai, and totaled the number of ships that could be confirmed in that area.

(Inside the white frame in the video below)

As of March 1, about one month before the restrictions on going out, about 730 cargo ships were confirmed a day, and it can be seen that they are actively moving.

However, as of April 16, more than two weeks after the restrictions began, the number of cargo ships increased to about 940, an increase of nearly 30%.

There were visibly more ships staying offshore.

Professor Takuma Matsuda of Takushoku University, who is familiar with international logistics, analyzes this situation as follows.

Professor Matsuda

"As a result of the deterioration of the function of the port in Shanghai, it is difficult to enter and exit the port, and the number of cargo ships waiting offshore is increasing."

He points out that there is congestion due to cargo ships that could not enter the port and were forced to wait.

The Chinese government has stated that "the operation of ships moored at Shanghai Port is relatively normal" and that there has been no major confusion, but the data reveals that it is not in the official view.

Did "quietness" bring about "crowd"?

Why are more ships waiting offshore?

According to interviews with Japanese logistics companies that are expanding into the local market, the reason is that there is a shortage of freight truck drivers due to infection control measures in and around Shanghai.

This is because many drivers cannot get out of their homes due to restrictions on going out, and even if they can work, they need to submit a negative certificate and get permission to pass through Shanghai city and highways.

Furthermore, in the surrounding areas such as Jiangsu Province, where parts manufacturers are concentrated, there are places where drivers and cars who have passed through Shanghai are not allowed to enter as an infection control measure.

Even though cargo is being loaded and unloaded at the port, the drivers who transport it are stuck in and out, and the cargo is accumulated in the port and the cargo to be exported does not come in.

As a result, it is believed that the number of ships waiting offshore is increasing because they cannot be landed.

The impact of the logistics turmoil in Shanghai is not limited to China alone, and it is also a factor that has forced some companies in Japan to temporarily suspend factory operations and reduce production.

Professor Matsuda of Takushoku University points out that the impact on the world's supply network may be serious.

Professor Matsuda

"Even if the restrictions on going out are lifted, it will take about a month to recover because luggage is accumulated in the port. If exports from Shanghai recover rapidly after that, luggage will be loaded at ports in Europe and the United States. There is a risk that it will be crowded without being able to handle it, and that there will be a shortage of containers. "

“Increasing risk of Chinese business”

Restrictions on going out are also a heavy burden on the production site.

In Changchun, the central city of Jilin Province in the northeastern part of Japan with a population of about 9 million, restrictions on going out began on March 11.

It was April 28 that city officials announced that they would gradually lift the restrictions.

The strict restrictions lasted for a month and a half.

Changchun is a city where automobile manufacturers and related companies are concentrated and the manufacturing industry is thriving, but during this period, most companies were forced to stop operations altogether.

According to Takeyuki Kuma, the president of a Japanese steel processing manufacturer in the area, the restrictions on going out began immediately after being notified by a sudden phone call from the authorities on the day of the event.

As a result, production stopped without any preparation, and paperwork was delayed.

The factory was closed by the authorities and installed a sensor to check the entry and exit of people, so if they went to work, they could be punished.

Mr. Kuma, who was able to go out for the first time in 47 days on April 28, feels the changes in the business environment.

President Kuma

: "I feel that the psychological burden on the residents is greater for the fear created by the policy than for Corona itself. It seems that the risk of doing business in China is increasing as the Zero-COVID policy is taken rigorously. think"

Screams from the invasion of Ukraine

As the spread of infection in the country has hit the economy, what is catching up is the rise in raw material prices due to the situation in Ukraine.

At a non-ferrous metal parts manufacturer in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, the purchase price of aluminum and tin used in its main products continues to reach the highest level.

Due to the sharp rise in raw material prices against the backdrop of the rapid recovery of the world economy from the Korona-ka, profits for the last year fell by about 10% compared to the previous year.

The price had fallen a little since the beginning of this year, but after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it started to rise again, and as of April when we interviewed, it increased by about 20% compared to the end of the year.

It's almost twice as much as an adult.

For this reason, manufacturers are taking measures to raise the prices of some products, but there is a concern that the price increase will leave customers, and it is said that uncertainty about management is increasing.

Deputy General Manager Yuki Hori

"There is no choice but to reduce orders with low profits, improve quality while avoiding the risk of losing money, and increase orders for high value-added products."

A sense of crisis that intensifies in "miscalculation"

Regarding the impact of domestic and foreign factors on the economy, the Chinese government said, "The downward pressure on the economy due to unexpected sudden factors such as increasing external instability and uncertainty and the spread of domestic infections. Is getting stronger ”(National Bureau of Statistics spokesman), admitting that it was a“ miscalculation ”.

Authorities appear to be intensifying the sense of crisis and will implement additional monetary easing on April 25.

Four days later, he held an important meeting of the Communist Party, clarifying his stance of stimulating the economy, saying, "We need to come up with new policy measures."

Can V-shaped recovery be achieved again?

However, recently, infections have begun to increase in the capital, Beijing, and infection control measures are becoming more stringent.

From April 30th to May 4th, there were five consecutive holidays in China to coincide with May Day, but in Beijing, eating and drinking inside the restaurant is prohibited at all restaurants.

Originally I would like to give momentum to the economy, but the city seems to be quiet, and this measure is still ongoing as of May 10.

Behind the fact that strict infection control measures are taken in various places, in March, a meeting by the highest leadership of the Communist Party stated that "if the spread of infection becomes uncontrollable due to negligence of duties, we will take strict responsibility". It is believed that local authorities have a sense of crisis that they will be punished if they expand.

It has been pointed out that the inevitable economic slowdown makes it difficult to achieve the economic growth target of "around 5.5%" set by the Chinese government.

During the interview, Chinese economic officials also said, "If you want to achieve your goal, you need to change the zero-corona policy to stimulate consumption."

Is it possible to regain the strength of the economy this time as well as the V-shaped recovery that was realized after the spread of the new coronavirus?

The whereabouts of the Zero Corona policy are key.

Ryoto Iga ,

Directorate General of China

, Sendai Bureau, Okinawa Bureau, Economic Department, etc.

Hiroshi Takashima ,

Director of Guangzhou Bureau

After working in the Political Department of the International Department of the Niigata Bureau, he is currently affiliated.

Eiji Akioka

, Reporter, Network News Department

After working at the Otsu Bureau, he

was in charge of data analysis in the current data visualization team "NMAPS".

Media Development Planning Center Engineer

Satoshi Watanabe

In charge of data processing at "NMAPS"

Masato Morita

, Director of Network News Department

In charge of data analysis and visualization at "NMAPS"

Motoki Tanaka