Once again, time is forcibly going back, and Libya is once again witnessing a political division after nearly a decade of rivalry, and the country and its people are moving to a crossroads that may bring them back to "square zero", which they have left only a little.
In the recent past, two rival parliaments, three governments, two central banks, two national oil companies, and dozens of armed groups have raged;
Now, events are returning to a renewed political, economic and geographical division, as there are currently two competing governments, one appointed by Parliament, and the other recognized by the United Nations, and both are pressing to be the legitimate authority, and each of them has armed loyalists, as well as influential international allies.
Preparation for the imminent civil clash began early with the statement of the Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity, "Abdul Hamid al-Dabaiba" that he would not allow a new transitional phase, nor a parallel authority in Libya, and that the parliament's appointment of a new government means war and chaos in the country, especially since the road is not paved for holding the presidential elections that It's overdue.
With the announcement by the Prime Minister-designate of Parliament, "Fatehi Bashagha", through his interior minister, the start of security arrangements to enter the capital and start its work from there, Tripoli witnessed the entry of heavy military columns belonging to Dabaiba, as they stationed in the main streets and headed towards the sovereign headquarters, in parallel with the announcement of the state of public mobilization. .
How did things get back to square zero?
What are the indications of a return to fighting in Libya?
Fathi Bashagha (Reuters)
Disable the cease-fire
With the inauguration of the House of Representatives in Tobruk, the Bashagha government, and Dabaiba's refusal to step down from power, all of Libya is in a state of anticipation, including the Presidential Council itself, which remained neutral in order to monitor the fate of the two men from afar, and wait for things to turn in favor of one of them.
While the signs of political and geographical division are looming again on the horizon, the closest scenario on the ground seems to be a renewed civil war, perhaps resolving this time by force what politics failed to resolve by consensus.
In particular, the movements of the Libyan general, "Khalifa Haftar" - as always - involve a public preparation for war, especially as he spearheaded the fueling of unrest, and the features of his plan were marked by the withdrawal of its members from the Libyan military committee known as the "5 + 5" committee, which includes Five loyal to him and five loyal to the Government of National Accord.The withdrawing members also suspended the ceasefire agreement concluded between the two parties in October 2020. The new positions are in line with the desire of the east of Libya to change the balance of power in the country by controlling oil ports and preventing its export, and closing The coastal road, the disruption of flights between the east and the west, and the suspension of all aspects of cooperation with the Dabaiba government, thus restoring the state of complete political, geographical and economic division inside Libya.
The current developments pave the way for an explicit call for the division of the sovereign Libyan institutions that are still silent until this moment, such as the Central Bank, which despite being located in the heart of the capital, Tripoli, and acquiring the largest part of the country’s savings, the presence of a parallel bank in the east will play a role in confirming the situation economic division.
While the Oil Corporation is committed to neutrality until this moment, its division with the continuation of the dispute is not excluded.
The recent past tells us that the Libyan General Haftar benefited from this state of division and the accompanying chaos in 2014, and led a military operation during which he tried to overthrow the capital, Tripoli, an ambition that he strongly confronted with his current ally, and his enemy yesterday, "Fathi Bashagha", one of the makers of Al-Wefaq's victories in the battles of the West Libyan.
The Misurata Brigades split
When Haftar wanted to fight a battle to enter Tripoli in March 2019, he adopted the attack plan from the south, from which he turned to the west, ignoring the closest point to the east, which is the city of "Misrata", which is located in the northwest, about 187 kilometers from Tripoli.
It was logical for Haftar to take the shortest path, but that would have involved him in two battles that he could theoretically not be able to resolve.
The city has long been seen as a wall against Haftar. In addition to being a stronghold of money and businessmen, it is also the home of the most prominent armed groups in Libya, as the quiet city possesses a formidable military force that made everyone view it as the winning card in any struggle to control the capital.
The city gained its prestige due to the track record of its brigades, especially its capture of Tripoli in a few days from Gaddafi's brigades, in addition to inflicting a painful defeat on the Islamic State "ISIS".
And when Libya was divided into a kind of two states in 2014, the city that alone carries half of the military equipment left by Gaddafi sided with the rulers of Tripoli, and confirmed their authority to survive, even though its rival in the east actually held most of the Libyan soil in his hand.
Bashagha stood at the center of these events at the time as an officer who gained his influence from joining the Military Council of Misurata, and one of the founders of the well-known "Libya Dawn" brigades, until after that he moved to political work as Minister of Interior in the Government of National Accord, Fayez Al-Sarraj.
Therefore, these new transformations now paint the Libyan scene, as the battle is limited to two people from the city of Misurata, "Al-Dabaiba" and "Bashagha".
It is expected that the Misurata brigades will resolve the current conflict scenario, although the prime minister is still supported by the tribes and notables of the city, who considered in a statement that forming a parallel government would empower the putschists, Misrata now is not on the heart of one man, as Pashaga has political and military influence in it. It may match the influence of forces loyal to Dabaiba.
Bashagha deliberately announced an interview with a number of the most prominent commanders of the Misurata Brigades in Tunisia, including the commander of the "Reserve Division" of the Counter-Terrorism Force, and the commander of the "166th Protection Brigade", in an explicit indication that the military equation is equal between Dabaiba's supporters who demand the introduction of the draft constitution. For the referendum, with urgent parliamentary elections, and Bashagha's supporters who support the parliament's decision to dissolve the Tripoli government.
Abdel Hamid Dabaiba (Reuters)
Politics without a horizon
While Dabaiba refuses to resign and step down from power, based on the survival of his government on the outcomes of the Libyan Dialogue Forum sponsored by the United Nations and in which the term of the transitional executive authority was set at 18 months, extending until next June;
Parliament rejects this vision, and insists on withdrawing confidence from it, claiming that his government failed in the tasks entrusted to it by fighting corruption and unifying state institutions, especially the army, and most importantly its inability to hold the presidential elections on time on December 24, 2021.
In light of the state of polarization between the government and parliament, the State Council and the Presidential Council remain on the scene, which are two pivotal political parties, any of which could draw the features of the division.
As for the Presidential Council, its president, "Mohamed al-Manfi" is silent until the moment, and clings to playing the mediator role to spare Libya the fate of the final division into two governments, with the hope of reaching a way out of the political and constitutional impasse, even though he came to his position in the same legal capacity that brought Dabaiba to power. (Geneva talks).
For his part, the State Council headed by "Khaled Al-Mashri" - Sadiq Bashagha - takes a vague and unclear position. While it formally supports Dabaiba (after a turbulent announcement of Bashagha's support at the beginning), it builds its support on Parliament's violation of the political agreement by the need to take the council's opinion before choosing the name of a new Prime Minister;
That opens the door to potential deals.
Complicating matters further, the elections were postponed indefinitely, with Dabaiba confirming that he would only hand over power through elections, as the man repeatedly stressed that he would not accept any other formula to get out of office;
This makes the military solution the only option for resolving the conflict between the two parties, and the imposition of a new political reality by means of weapons after the failure of the elections.
Parliament has the legitimacy of war
Otherwise, the Libyan parliament, which has the internationally recognized legislative authority, has the legal right to legitimize any future conflict, and this is one of the biggest crises in Libya during its past decade. Constitutional authority, nullify the elections.
Through the parliament gate, Haftar officially returned to his military uniform, and took the legal oath to assume the position of Commander-in-Chief of the Libyan Army.
In the presence of two governments in the country, the first took the oath before the House of Representatives, and the second refused to hand over power except to an elected government, in the absence of activating the Constitutional Court to adjudicate that dispute;
Dabaiba does not have any actual political cards except to object, saying that the parliament’s move is unconstitutional, especially since Parliament does not face an actual move against it by the State Council and the Presidential Council, which means that the balance is already politically tilted in favor of Bashagha.
Parliament had previously imposed its opinion and bypassed everyone regarding arrangements to end the transitional phase through steps to amend the government, and then began special consultations to adopt the constitutional rule, followed by electoral laws, steps opposed by the State Council, but it had previously failed to actually obstruct them, and even the international community itself had previously failed In putting pressure on Parliament to install Dabaiba’s government, Dabaiba is actually afraid of the parliament’s power because it has the legitimacy to wage war, a war whose results may not come out in the interest of Tripoli, given the weakening of the Western front by Bashagha’s accession to the West, while Haftar’s forces remain intact without divisions .
The United Nations implicitly gives the green light to division
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres (Reuters)
The inability of the United Nations to reach a political solution to end the conflict inside Libya is clear to all. Its emphasis on recognizing Dabaiba’s legitimacy alone did not solve the problem, and international and local mediations have so far failed to prevent a return to armed conflict.
Instead, the UN Adviser on Libya, Stephanie Williams, ignored the main dilemmas, and put forward an initiative that provided for the immediate start of consultations between Parliament and the Supreme Council of State to lay a constitutional basis that would move the country to elections as soon as possible, without addressing the military buildup from both parties in the recent period. .
While Libya is witnessing a conflict between two legitimacy, the United Nations did not intervene, as usual, to prevent a recurrence of the military conflict, which happened previously when Haftar launched his war against the former internationally recognized Government of National Accord, which demanded the imposition of sanctions on Haftar or the countries supporting him without a response at the time.
With the crisis reaching a dead end without a real political initiative that brings the parties to the negotiating table and concessions, the international community, in the midst of being preoccupied with more intense conflicts - such as Ukraine - does not seem interested in what is going on, and most likely will ignore the military conflict again in the hope that the victor will impose his political legitimacy in the end.
Libya’s problems do not lie only in oil, nor in the repercussions of the revolution as well, as much as it lies in the fact that the country did not make a real effort in building the state and institutions;
This will leave the social, political and geographical map prepared for civil conflict.
A year ago, the political bet in Libya failed, and the tribal and military division triumphed, and when the parties decided to choose an interim government that was not among those old faces that enjoyed powerful political and military power, the division did not end, and new ambitions emerged for new parties from the folds of a political and social system that is biased by its nature to bargains. Local and tribal, not comprehensive national solutions.
It seems, then, that the only solution that everyone is currently satisfied with is a "civil war", in the hope that a victor with a new legitimacy will emerge in the end, ending the inability of politics to create a state in Libya.