The Russian war on Ukraine dealt a severe blow to the global economy and left it reeling between crises one after another, and the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa are considered the most affected by this economic blow.
In a report published by the American "oilprice" website, writer Alex Kimani said that crude oil prices jumped last Wednesday after the European Union proposed a ban on oil imports from Russia and the removal of the largest bank in this country, "Sberbank", from the "Swift" payments network. international as part of a new round of sanctions.
The high oil and gas prices caused by the conflict in Ukraine raised the risks of the worst stagflationary shock to hit Europe since the 1970s.
A large number of experts have warned that Europe will plunge into a deep recession if it rushes to cut off Russian oil and gas.
The European Union has drawn up plans to reduce its dependence on Russian gas by two-thirds before the end of this year and to end imports completely by 2030, according to the report of the American website.
Will Moscow come out unscathed?
The writer pointed out that the "euro" area generates a quarter of its energy from natural gas, of which Russia provides about a third of the bloc's imports.
And Goldman Sachs warned that any further disruptions to gas imports could have significant impacts on the eurozone's economic output and inflation.
Ironically, Moscow may emerge unscathed, at least in the short term, as Norwegian consultancy Rystad Energy estimates that Russia will collect more than $180 billion in energy tax revenue this year.
Unfortunately, according to the report, poorer regions such as the African continent are likely to bear the brunt of the war in Ukraine.
And a new report from the International Monetary Fund says that sub-Saharan Africa is already facing another severe and exogenous shock from soaring food, fuel and commodity prices.
For decades, the countries of this continent have faced chronic food and energy insecurity, and the Ukraine war is now on the cusp of turning the situation into a full-blown crisis.
severe economic shocks
According to the International Monetary Fund, food accounts for about 40% of consumer spending in the region, which is 17% higher than consumer spending in advanced economies. of the total nutritional requirements.
The author pointed out that high fertilizer prices is a contributing factor to high food prices and food insecurity in Africa, because the sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus (the second and third exporters of potash in the world) have pushed fertilizer prices to levels not seen since the 2008 food crisis. .
Potash prices rose last year due to tight supplies after international sanctions against the state-owned company "Belarus Kale" in Belarus in response to President Alexander Lukashenko's campaign against political opponents.
At worst, higher fertilizer prices will result in lower crop yields and higher prices for all items in grocery stores for months or even years to come across developing nations.
The writer said that the Ukraine war pushed prices to new highs, especially since Russia is one of the largest suppliers of potash and other crop fertilizers such as nitrogen, phosphate, urea and ammonia.
According to the International Fertilizer Development Center, reduced fertilizer use in Africa will reduce this year's rice and maize harvest by a third.
At worst, higher fertilizer prices will result in lower crop yields and higher prices for all items in grocery stores for months or even years to come across developing countries.
For developing economies facing high levels of food insecurity, reduced fertilizer use threatens to exacerbate the problem of malnutrition, leading to increased political unrest and the avoidable loss of human lives.
But soaring food prices is not the only challenge sub-Saharan Africa has to deal with.
The International Monetary Fund has warned that higher oil prices will raise the import bill for oil importers in the region by about $19 billion, which will lead to higher transportation costs and other consumer costs.
On the other hand, the eight oil-exporting countries in the region are expected to benefit from higher crude oil prices.
The author warned that it is very likely that high fuel and fertilizer prices will negatively affect local food production and harm the poor, especially in urban areas due to increased food insecurity there.
European Union tells oil producers to consider increasing supplies (Getty Images)
Africa is Coming to Save Europe
The writer quoted Vigaya Ramachandran, director of energy and development at the Breakthrough Institute in Berlin, that Europe should turn to Africa if it is serious about ensuring energy security because the continent has large production of natural gas and oil reserves, of which little has been invested.
Berlin and the European Union are already working to increase the capacity of the pipeline linking Spain with France, so that more Algerian gas will flow to Germany and elsewhere.
Europe must contribute urgently to exploiting the new fields and increasing gas production in Algeria and Libya.
But Africa's largest sources lie in sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria, which holds about a third of the continent's reserves, as well as Tanzania and Senegal.
Ramachandran says that Germany should not ignore these opportunities. For example, the proposed trans-Saharan pipeline would transport gas from Nigeria to Algeria via Niger.
The trans-Saharan pipeline will be more than 2,500 miles long and can pump up to 30 billion cubic meters of Nigerian gas to Europe annually, equivalent to two-thirds of Germany's 2021 imports from Russia.
The writer stated that Nigeria is eager to export some of its reserves of 200 trillion cubic feet of gas, as Nigerian Vice President Yemi Osinbago says that natural gas is a relatively clean fuel and an engine for economic development and foreign exchange earning.
The trans-Saharan pipeline is likely to take a decade or more to complete, and LNG shipments to Germany will provide the gas quickly.