Half a year until the US midterm elections Focus on maintaining the Democratic Party's parliamentary initiative

It will be six months until the midterm elections, which will be the venue for voters to judge the Biden administration in the United States, in eight days.

With the approval rating of President Biden slumping against the backdrop of record inflation, the focus is on whether the ruling and Democratic parties can maintain the initiative of the parliament.

The US midterm elections are held once every four years, such as in the parliament, in the middle of the presidential election, and are positioned as an important milestone for the people to judge the administration of the president.

In the midterm elections on November 8th, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and all 435 House seats will be re-elected.

Currently, the Democratic Party of Japan is in control of both the House and Senate in Congress.

However, President Biden's approval rating has been sluggish at an average of more than 40% in various polls as of the 5th of this month due to record inflation, and the midterm elections have historically been severe for the ruling party. In many cases, there is widespread view that the Democratic Party is inferior in both the House and Senate in this election.

On the other hand, the right to abortion has been dismissed as protests have spread all over the country over the abortion, which has been a debate that divides the country in the United States, triggered by the leakage of documents from the Federal Supreme Court. The Democratic Party, which has many supporters who admit it, wants to add momentum to this move.

If the majority of the parliament is robbed by the opposition and the Republican party in this midterm election, President Biden's administration will become difficult, and the Democratic Party will maintain the initiative of the parliament in predicting the next presidential election to be held in 2024. The focus is on what you can do.

As a result of the mid-term elections, the ruling party has a severe tendency

Historically, the US midterm elections have often had severe consequences for the ruling party.

According to the US election information site "Five Thirty Eight," the ruling party reduced its seats in the House of Representatives in 17 of the 19 midterm elections that took place after World War II, with an average reduction of 26. It is a seat.

Meanwhile, the two midterm elections in which the ruling party increased its seats in the House of Representatives were in 1998 and 2002.

In 1998, President Clinton was in the midst of a scandal over a relationship with a former White House trainee, but the opposition and Republicans were perceived as over-taking this issue and the economy was strong. Etc. are believed to have worked in favor of the ruling and Democratic parties.

In 2002, President Bush maintained a high approval rating of over 60% following the terrorist attacks of the previous year, which is believed to have led to an increase in the number of seats in the ruling and Republican parties.

Opinion polls Biden administration approval rating continues to be low

Opinion polls continue to harshly evaluate President Biden's administration.

In the latest poll released by the leading newspaper The Washington Post and ABC Television on the 1st of this month, 42% said they "supported" Biden's administration and 52% said they did not. So, since the poll in early September last year, when the turmoil spread due to the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, the number of respondents who answered "support" has remained at a low level of around 40%.

Looking at each policy, the response to record inflation is particularly low, with 28% responding "support" and 68% responding "not support". It's up.

Inflation is an issue that voters are focusing on, with more than 90% saying they are "concerned."

On the other hand, 42% of the respondents answered that they "support" the situation in Ukraine, where Russia's military invasion continues, an increase of 9 points compared to the survey two months ago, but "do not support". It is less than 47% of the answers.

Expert “Republicans dominate both houses at the moment”

Kyle Condick of the University of Virginia Political Center, who specializes in American politics, said about the outlook for the midterm elections: Approval rating is almost the same and quite low. The enthusiasm for voting is also higher for the supporters of the opposition party and the Republican party, and the situation is severe for the ruling party and the Democratic Party at the moment. " Is shown.

On the other hand, as a factor that may affect the future of the midterm elections, the Federal Supreme Court cited the case where the past judgment that women were granted the right to abort was overturned before the election, saying "What is the political party?" It can gain momentum when it loses or feels angry, and if the Supreme Court overturns the decision, there is no doubt that the Democratic Party will feel more angry than the Republican Party. It's too early to determine how it will affect people's voting behavior. "

US Congressional ruling and opposition seats

As of May 7, the U.S. Congress has the same number of Democrats and Republicans, including non-affiliated Senates, with 50 seats, but the Democratic Party is the de facto majority because it is chaired by Vice President Harris. It has become.

The House of Representatives has 221 seats for the Democratic Party and 209 seats for the Republican Party, with the Democratic Party taking the lead in both the House and Senate.