Is 30% of the evacuees from Ukraine to Poland returning home?

In the two months leading up to the 24th of last month, of the approximately 2.94 million people who evacuated from Ukraine to neighboring Poland, about 850,000, or about 30%, had returned to Poland, according to an interview with the Polish authorities.

Experts analyze that "the number of people returning to Japan is increasing in line with the movement of the Russian army withdrawing from the area around the capital Kyiv, and it seems that the war situation has had a great influence."

Since the military invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, many people have been evacuated from Ukraine to neighboring Poland.

This time, NHK obtained data on immigration to Ukraine from the border security authorities that control the Polish border and analyzed it independently.

As a result, a total of 2,941,200 people entered or evacuated from Ukraine to Poland during the two months leading up to the 24th of last month.

On the other hand, it was found that the number of people who left and returned to Ukraine totaled 852,300, which is about 30% of all evacuees.

The number of returnees was about 10,000 per day in late February, but gradually increased from around the end of March, and on the 15th of last month, it increased to 25,100, the highest number so far, and for the first time per day. The number of returnees exceeded the number of evacuees to Poland.

In addition, the number of evacuees per day peaked at 140,000 on March 6 and has been on a downward trend, falling below 9800 and 10,000 on the 24th of last month.

Professor Atsushi Kondo of Meijo University, who is familiar with the refugee issue, said, "Russian troops began to withdraw from the area around the capital Kieu in late March, and more and more people are returning to Ukraine around this time. It seems to be big. "

He points out, "Depending on the war situation, there is a possibility that more people will move back and evacuate abroad, and long-term support is needed."

Why return home?

Why are so many people returning to Ukraine amid the ongoing threat of Russian troops?

We talked to people returning from Warsaw, the capital of Poland.

There are sleeper trains and buses from Warsaw station to Ukraine, and it is crowded with people returning to Ukraine every day.

Of these, Marina (51), who is planning to return to the capital Kyiv, said, "I can't stay long because I don't understand the language and the law of this country. I am very grateful to the Polish people, but many I don't think I have a chance. I think it's difficult to find a job here. If I keep going, I'll run out of money and I have to go home. "

Larisa, 42, who evacuated to England, where her daughter lives, and returned to the state of Borini in the northwestern part of Ukraine, said, "It was difficult to find a job at the evacuation site. I want to go back to the place. "

In addition, Natalia, 60, who is returning to the capital, Kieu, said, "I evacuated to Poland a month and a half ago. I was originally planning to go home, so I'm not looking for a job here. I'm going home because I was born. I want to pay taxes and rebuild the city. I want to live freely without causing any inconvenience to anyone. "

Expert "The influence of the war situation is great"

Regarding the situation where the number of people returning to Ukraine is increasing, Professor Atsushi Kondo of Meijo University, who is familiar with the issue of refugees and refugees, said, "Russian troops began to withdraw from the area around the capital Kiu in late March, and they withdrew. It is said to be in early April. In response to this movement, the difference between departures and arrivals has narrowed, and more people are returning to Ukraine in mid-April, which is largely due to the influence of the war situation. " I am.

"Poland does not have a well-developed refugee (refugee) support system compared to other EU countries, and churches and individuals provide a place for refugees to live in and secure food, clothing and shelter. It seems that employment support is particularly weak, and the unemployment rate is quite high due to the large influx of people from Ukraine, making it difficult to find a job. Some people may decide that returning to Ukraine is better for their lives. "

On top of that, "I think it is temporary that more people will return to Ukraine at this stage. If I think that it is impossible to rebuild my life even if I try to return to Ukraine, I may return to Poland again. It may be possible to move to a country. It is still possible that more people will evacuate until the situation is settled and the country is rebuilt. If it is long, there will be an option to rebuild the life in a new place, so it is important to support the evacuees to open up a new life by themselves. ”Long-term support for evacuees to become independent in other countries. Point out the need for.

The number of people who entered and exited the border between Poland and Ukraine

This time, NHK analyzed the number of people who have entered and exited the Polish-Ukraine border by border guards who control the Polish border since February 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Officials estimate that Ukrainians make up 94% of the people who come and go.

According to this, the total number of people who entered or evacuated from Ukraine to Poland in the two months until the 24th of last month was 2,941,200.

On the other hand, the total number of people leaving and returning to Ukraine from Poland is 852,300, which is about 30% of the evacuees.

Looking at the number of returnees per day in detail, it was 9,700 on February 24, the first day of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine.

After that, the number remained at around 10,000 for a while, but it increased sharply from the end of March when the Russian army began to withdraw from the suburbs of the capital Kyiv, and reached 20,000 on April 2.

Furthermore, on April 15, the number of returnees per day exceeded the number of evacuees to Poland for the first time, increasing to 25,100, the highest number in the last two months.

On the other hand, looking at the number of evacuees to Poland per day in detail, it was 31,200 on February 24, when the military invasion occurred, but it increased to 100,000 on the 28th, four days later. I am.

And it has increased further since March 4, when Russian troops were reported to have attacked a nuclear power plant in Ukraine, reaching 142,300 on the 6th, the highest number in the last two months.

However, it gradually decreased after that, and after the end of March when the Russian army began to withdraw from the suburbs of the capital Kyiv, the number fell below 30,000.

And on the 24th of last month, the number was 9800, the lowest in the last two months, and 10,000 for the first time.