French failure in Mali is a Russian triumph

The incident that Pham is talking about occurred shortly after the military coup in Mali in August 2020, when Russia's ambassador became the first foreign diplomat to meet with the junta with its leader Assimi Goïta.

Of course, all Western diplomats suspected that flag-waving was extremely choreographed and customary Kremlin-style propaganda.

But why was Russia so quick to try to become friendly with the coup plotters in Mali?

The answer is that Russia wants to increase its foothold in Africa, but does not really have much to offer stable democracies on the continent.

With the exception of wheat exports and extensive attempts to sell Russian nuclear power.

Compared to the West and China, Russia is an economically small country and simply cannot compete with these giants.

Takes advantage of the West's failures

But authoritarian states need help with weapons and violence, and Russia can offer that.

Since 2015, Russia has signed military cooperation agreements with 20 countries in Africa.

And the Kremlin has proven to be quick to take advantage of failures from the West.

As in Mali. 

When French forces arrived in Mali in 2012 to help fight militant Islamists in the north of the country, they were extremely welcome.

But after years of French military service in the country and no end to terror in sight, more and more people in Mali began to see the presence of the old colonial power as something more like an occupation.

When the military junta took power in 2020, the French failure to curb jihadist violence was a partial cause.

And, as I said, Russia was not late in taking advantage of the situation.

At the end of last year, information came that the infamous Wagner group had come to the country.

Since then, relations between Mali and France have deteriorated rapidly. 

Stopped French media

French media were banned earlier this year after reporting that government forces had carried out mass executions, according to reports in collaboration with Wagner. 

And after the French military recently published drone images that are said to show how the Wagner group tried to arrange mass graves in order to accuse the French of abuse, the answer was now that Mali completely breaks the military cooperation with France. 

One can only speculate on Russia's influence over developments in Mali.

But it can be stated that Russia is good at picking low-hanging fruit.

Weak states are used on well-chosen occasions and enter with a minimum of transparency and at not very high cost either.

But Russia's influence will be all the greater.

The case of Mali is a French failure and a Russian triumph. 

Putin is advancing in Africa

The cost to Mali and other African countries where Russia operates is all the higher.

Not only because of the secret agreements written for mining in the countries, but also because Russia specializes in supporting dictators, like Bashir in Sudan, and taking advantage of tenacious conflicts like in the Central African Republic, CAR, where the government sticks to a Russian National Security Adviser.

In recent days, CAR, like the other country in the world, introduced bitcoin as the official currency.

A way to round the sanctions against Russia, according to some expertise.

Russia may be in retreat in Ukraine, but it is advancing in Africa.

In the pot are natural resources, weapons agreements and desirable votes in the UN General Assembly.

In any case, Mali will not vote against Russia for the foreseeable future.