• On the night of Sunday to Monday, environmentalists and rebels signed an agreement for the "New popular ecological and social union" as the legislative elections approach.

  • If many executives from both parties have been stressing the "historic" side of the agreement since Monday morning, two political scientists contacted by

    20 minutes

    want to be more reserved on the issue.

“And long live the New Popular Ecologist and Social Union!

".

This tweet, which sounds like a cry of joy, was written this Monday by Sandrine Rousseau after the agreement signed overnight between EELV (Europe Ecology Les Verts) and La France Insoumise (LFI) for the legislative elections.

If discussions continue with the Socialist Party (PS) and the PCF (French Communist Party), this agreement seems to mark a new start for the left in France.

At the microphone of France Inter, the pact was even described as "historic" by Manuel Bompard, the director of the legislative campaign for rebellious France. 

Caution, however.

According to political scientist Pascal Perrineau, these cries of joy may only be deaf noises.

“La France Insoumise's agreement with the Greens, which won 5% in the presidential election, is not truly historic.

We have to see what happens afterwards, because for the moment, it is only a partial agreement, ”qualifies the specialist in electoral sociology.

Same observation on the side of the political scientist Bruno Cautrès who finds nothing comparable to the previous agreements found by the left, in 1997 for example, during the plural left of Lionel Jospin.

“We have to wait to see what the objective of this agreement is,” emphasizes Bruno Cautrès.

If it is to send a message to leftist voters that a new political construction is beginning, that is reasonable, but it will take time and several steps.

If the idea is to formulate an electoral agreement aimed at minimizing the losses of each, it will be the legislative elections which will decide and which will say if it worked or not”.

“Under an oxygen tent”

The novel side, according to Pascal Perrineau, lies above all in the radicalism imposed by this agreement.

“Historically, the union of the left has always stopped at the Communist Party.

This is the first time in history that there has been an alliance with the extreme left, the left of the left, ”he insists.

And to underline: "In this, Jean-Luc Mélenchon can rejoice because he achieves his ends and imposes himself as a unifier, as a composer of the French lefts which are in a lamentable state".

Since the low scores of candidates Yannick Jadot, Fabien Roussel and Anne Hidalgo in the presidential election, the union of the left finally seems to have found a place in the discussions... the same ones that had been failing for months.

“I think there is a lot of panic at EELV and at the PS, analyzes Pascal Perrineau.

They scored even lower than they expected.

They seek to put themselves under an oxygen tent, that of La France insoumise, but which risks suffocating them politically in the long term.

If these agreements are made, we are witnessing an enormous radicalization of the French left, which will further marginalize itself”.

A third of voters

If this first agreement with EELV therefore opens the way to other signatures on the left, Pascal Perrineau remains cautious about their political weight in the legislative elections.

“If there is an agreement which includes the PS and the PC, which seems probable, it is an agreement of a political family, the French left, which remains a minority.

It is enough to take the first round of the elections and to note that their results all together do not make more than a third of the voters, ”analyzes the political scientist.

According to the two political scientists, the left-wing parties will also have to anticipate, in the event of victory, future government disagreements.

“There is still a very long way to go to be able to govern together with very important elements of ideological differentiation between these political formations”, indicates Bruno Cautrès.

For his part, Pascal Perrineau does not envisage any compromise between the parties.

“How do you compromise when you weigh 2% and the other weighs 22%?

It is not possible”, compares the political scientist.

And now ?

According to Pascal Perrineau, the Socialist Party would have more to gain by “keeping the old house”, like Léon Blum in 1920 when the SFIO fell.

“In the rout, the Socialists are selling what they are, that is to say the tradition of a left government that governs large cities, regions, departments.

It risks really shattering what remains of the Socialist Party.

And Bruno Cautrès added: “Their presidential candidate, Anne Hidalgo, has just campaigned on retirement at 62, on European commitment and NATO.

Sweeping all of this out of hand over a very short period of time shows that steps are missing for voters to fully buy in.

At the headquarters of La France Insoumise, in the 10th arrondissement of Paris,

Elections

Legislative 2022: After the historic agreement with EELV, the Insoumis want to quickly join the PS and the PCF

Policy

Legislative 2022: LREM accuses EELV and the PS of "denying" their convictions by joining forces with LFI

  • Legislative elections 2022

  • Socialist Party (PS)

  • La France Insoumise (LFI)

  • Europe Ecology The Greens (EELV)

  • French Communist Party (PCF)

  • Jean-Luc Melenchon