Strategic Analyst Hong Lei Tho:
Asia is facing hard times because of the Ukraine war
The General Assembly's vote on the war in Ukraine exposed the predicament of many Asian countries. AFP
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To many countries not directly involved, the Ukraine war may seem a long way off, and it is an issue of occasional debate about why some countries prefer to distance themselves from the issue diplomatically.
In Southeast Asia, many countries have chosen to adhere to the traditional philosophy of non-alignment to avoid any involvement.
Other than Singapore, which resolutely condemned the Russian attack and implemented economic sanctions against Moscow, other countries have taken a very conservative stance.
This is due to a combination of factors, including the relatively positive bilateral relationship with Russia, says Dr Hong Lei Tho, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
Vietnam in particular is in a difficult situation, given that Moscow supplies it with 80% of its military equipment.
For Indonesia and Malaysia, Russia is a major exporter of such equipment to them, although the proportion is much lower compared to Vietnam.
Tho, who is also a non-resident scholar with the Southeast Asia Program at the US Center for Strategic and International Studies, adds that the conduct of the recent vote on UN resolutions on war exposed the uncomfortable choices faced by all countries, even those that refused to make any choice.
countries tendencies
Given their leanings, Southeast Asian governments are sensitive to land safety issues and any criticism of values and ethics.
Even Singapore, which condemned the attack, abstained from voting to expel Russia from the UN Human Rights Council.
Tho says in a report published by the Institute for Strategic and International Studies, that the global spotlight is increasingly focused on Southeast Asia, especially the countries that play a broader regional role this year. Indonesia will chair the Group of Twenty, Thailand will chair the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and Cambodia It will chair the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the East Asia Summit, and there is increasing diplomatic pressure to exclude Russia from these gatherings, which puts the countries it will chair in a difficult position.
Demands that Russia not be invited to participate in international forums, particularly the G-20, are likely to backfire if this is not done adeptly.
On the one hand, it is conceivable that the pressure originates from the "West", and if imposed, it would be interpreted as a violation of the independence of opinion of the host countries.
Indonesia, even before the war in Ukraine, on several occasions expressed its dissatisfaction with US diplomats seeking its support against China and other countries, considering this as an interference in Jakarta's independent foreign policy.
Tho explains that it is Indonesia - the region's largest democracy - that will bear much of that diplomatic scrutiny this year, not only because of its presidency of the Group of Twenty, but also because it is the only country participating in the ASEAN, APEC, and G-20 summits.
Even if diplomatic influence is masterfully implemented, there will be limits to how much Southeast Asian countries are willing to respond, not only because of their relations with Moscow, but also because of their relations with China.
The question, then, is: Which country is best able to communicate with it convincingly?
Tho says that there are six "external countries" participating in the membership of the Group of Twenty, "APEC" and the East Asia Summit: Australia, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the United States.
Among these countries, Japan is in the best position to engage in the masterful diplomacy with the host nations necessary to control tensions over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Japan situation
Japan's position in Southeast Asia is more solid compared to the other five countries, and its deep and long-term partnerships in the region have earned it a high level of enduring trust.
Tho added that strong economic ties and mutual recognition of interdependence are factors that make Southeast Asia and Japan closer compared to other countries.
Amid deepening global divisions over the war in Ukraine and its consequences, Southeast Asia is facing difficult times, Tho concludes by saying that ASEAN is not only a major representative of smaller and medium-sized countries, but its member states also enjoy a strong presence in international forums. This year's prestige will make her value an even more understanding partner and skillful communicator.
Japan appears to be such an interlocutor, and although Tokyo's efforts alone, or in coordination with partners and allies, will not address the issue facing international institutions, they may prevent further fracturing.
• Indonesia, even before the war in Ukraine, on several occasions, expressed its dissatisfaction with the efforts of US diplomats to obtain its support against China and other countries, and considers this an interference in Jakarta's independent foreign policy.
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