Russia is preparing the Moldovan breakaway republic of Transnistria for war with Ukraine.

This according to unconfirmed information from the Ukrainian intelligence service, which the country's government told about in a press release on Sunday.

Already at the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there were reports that Transnistria could be used as a pretext by Putin to draw Moldova into the war.

In Transnistria, Russian forces have been in place for a long time. 

- Should Russian forces in Transnistria attack Ukraine from the west, it is inevitable that Moldova will be drawn into the conflict because Transnistria is part of Moldova, says Jakob Hedenskog, analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies at the Foreign Policy Institute.

Photo: Björn Frykmo / SVT

Splits Ukraine's focus

SVT has previously reported on the fear among residents at Moldova's border with Ukraine that what has affected the neighboring country may also affect them.

Transnistria has now come back into focus after three recent attacks in the region.

Several experts have pointed out that these may be staged attacks as part of Russia's propaganda war to create a reason to invade Moldova.

At the same time, last weekend Russia attacked targets in Odessa, near the border with Moldova.

Jakob Hedenskog states that the attacks force Ukraine to focus on more fronts than eastern Ukraine and that this may be one of Russia's goals.

He points out that Russia's continued plan for the war may be to completely shield Ukraine from the Black Sea and thereby take Odessa, which borders Moldova. 

- In that case, you are at the border of Transnistria, and the conflict would come much closer to Moldova.

Then it is in principle inevitable that Transnistria and thus Moldova will be involved in the war, says Jakob Hedenskog.

Photo: AP

"Would be a declaration of war"

He likens Transnistria to the pro-Russian separatist areas of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine - which Russia recognized as independent states just days before the February invasion of Ukraine.

- If Russia were to recognize Transnistria's independence, it would be a direct declaration of war against Moldova because Moldova, with the support of international law, claims that Transnistria is part of Moldova, says Jakob Hedenskog.

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The unrest in Moldova is noticeable for the store owner Ludmila Gavrilovic: - People are starting to stock up on goods, she says.

Photo: Andreas Hult / SVT