Speculations, strategies and scholarly calculations feed the staffs for the "third round" of the presidential election.
From strategic advice to informal lunches, we work in the campaign headquarters to define the best strategy in order to obtain a maximum of seats in the National Assembly during the legislative elections on June 12 and 19.
Or we are modestly trying to avoid a new shipwreck, like the Republicans (LR) weakened by their bitter defeat in the presidential election (4.78%).
>> Legislative 2022: accounts settling on the far right
Officially at LR, the message is very clear.
After a group meeting on Monday 25 and a strategic council the following day, the president of the party, Christian Jacob, closed the door to possible alliances.
"There is no double membership. We cannot be Les Républicains and the presidential majority, we cannot be Les Républicains and Reconquête, Les Républicains and Horizons. We are Les Républicains, an independent group", a- he hammered on April 26 at the microphone of BFMTV.
And for those who would be tempted to jump ship, the party even made its members sign a written commitment.
The text enjoins them to sit in an independent group, "which is in no way in the presidential majority, and even less with the extremes", insisted Christian Jacob.
Today, the Political Bureau @lesRepublicains adopted a joint motion.
No voice can be cast on Marine Le Pen.
The Republican right will remain independent.
She will continue to carry her voice.
It is neither fungible in macronism nor in lepenism.
pic.twitter.com/bN3uTB5Sd4
— Christian JACOB (@ChJacob77) April 11, 2022
"Any sense !"
Behind the scenes, things seem less clear.
Signs of the many cracks within the party, the candidate for the right-wing primary Philippe Juvin and the president of the LR group in the National Assembly, Damien Abad, have not signed the text of allegiance to the Republicans.
Worse, internally, we castigate and question the body that is the author.
“The strategic council has no statutory existence (…). Voting for a non-existent body makes no sense!”
stormed the deputy of the North, Sébastien Huyghe, suspected, like twenty colleagues, of wanting to play the deserters.
The April 20 strategy meeting had already revealed deep divisions among Les Républicains, who now seem to be divided into two camps.
On the one hand, those resistant to any idea of merger with Macronie, such as Olivier Marleix, Laurent Wauquiez, Aurélien Pradié or Bruno Retailleau.
On the other, supporters of rallying to the re-elected president, a plan supported by Nicolas Sarkozy, including Jean-François Copé, Daniel Fasquelle, Damien Abad, Philippe Juvin, Nicolas Forissier, Robin Reda, Sebastien Huyghe or Guillaume Larrivé .
Headliners to which are added regional presidents, such as Jean Rottner or Christelle Morençais, as well as mayors, such as those of Touquet and Saint-Étienne, Daniel Fasquelle and Gaël Perdriau.
The Republicans caught between Macron and Horizons temptations
Since then, behind the scenes or in the spotlight of social networks, tempers have been heating up on the strategy to follow.
The treasurer of LR, Daniel Fasquelle, had pleaded, after the victory of Emmanuel Macron, for "demanding and attentive" support for the re-elected president, with regard to "the measures that will have to be taken for France to recover", in order to "bring the country together in an ambitious project".
This support "is not a rallying but marks a desire to act in dialogue with the President of the Republic", corrected Daniel Fasquelle.
Unnecessary rectification, the first arrows coming from his own camp.
"If there is a little energy left in Daniel Fasquelle, he can become treasurer of the committee of licking Emmanuel Macron",
unchecks the first on Twitter Aurélien Pradié, number three of LR.
"If Aurélien Pradier has a little courage left, let him call me rather than insult me on social networks", replies the mayor of Touquet-Paris-Plage (Pas-de-Calais).
Response from the secretary general of LR: "No. Not wanting. Sorry."
Vibe.
If there is a little energy left at @DFasquelle, he could become treasurer of the committee to suck up to Emmanuel Macron.
As far as we are concerned, we will find strong women and men to rebuild an independent right.
To serve the French and popular France.
https://t.co/XPYAduCpea
– Aurélien Pradié (@AurelienPradie) April 22, 2022
"We have never been in favor of blocking Parliament, like the far left or the National Front […] If reforms are proposed to us and they go in the right direction, our parliamentary group will be able to take its responsibilities and vote them", conceded Christian Jacob, anxious to calm the secessionist tendencies at the end of the strategic council.
And to conclude as a skilful tightrope walker, “otherwise we will be in opposition to these reforms”, this time addressing the most fervent LR supporters.
Absolute majority in the Assembly
Spare some, reassure others.
Avoid at all costs that Emmanuel Macron, - in search of new names to form his new government, which must be unveiled in the coming days - comes once again to help himself in the ranks of the Republicans.
Many names of the right-wing party are circulating in the corridors of political parties to take the helm of Matignon, including those of Christelle Morançais, president Les Républicains (LR) of the Center-Val-de-Loire region, and the former minister LR Catherine Vautrin.
Other surnames are regularly cited to enter government, such as that of Damien Abad, the current boss of LR deputies in the Assembly.
A prize of war that could cost the Republicans dearly.
Leaving the ship,
It must be said that the polls very favorable to the presidential majority do not invite loyalty.
All the surveys give an absolute majority to La République en Marche, which mechanically benefits from a breath effect generated by the presidential victory.
And among the Republicans everyone knows it, with a score of less than 5% in the presidential election, it will be difficult to refuel in the National Assembly.
In this uncertain context, a handful of deputies have already warned that they are giving up seeking nomination, such as Valérie Pécresse's campaign manager, Patrick Stefanini, who refused to run in a constituency in the Yvelines which was reserved for him.
Eighteen deputies have also decided to defect.
Clogged "Horizons"?
"Emmanuel Macron's strategy of subversion aimed at poaching on Republican lands throughout the five-year term has borne fruit, believes Olivier Rouquan. The challenge now is whether Édouard Philippe's Horizons party will also delight new takes within the UDI, Act but especially within the LR."
Congratulations to the President of the Republic on his re-election!
More than 58% of the votes in France.
More than 63% in Le Havre.
pic.twitter.com/o53HYhQex9
— Edouard Philippe (@EPhilippe_LH) April 24, 2022
Even if he does not shave his white beard, Édouard Philippe certainly thinks, some mornings, of the presidential election of 2027. The former Prime Minister, who therefore needs to exist politically for five years, also counts have a group in the National Assembly.
Just before the second round, Édouard Philippe had also assured the press that his party would take its place in the majority.
But it seems that the agreements with the presidential majority are long overdue.
Without any contact with La République en Marche, the leader of the new party said he was "surprised" not to have more "discussion".
In the background, there remain the recurring tensions between Édouard Philippe and Emmanuel Macron.
According to Europe 1, the latter would have said to one of his relatives: “No constituency for Horizons, they are idiots! He owes me everything and he thinks that we are equal? He smoked the vapors of the port of Le Havre? ".
Édouard Philippe, who on the contrary seems to have kept a cool head, does not rule out placing his deputies in constituencies where LREM is already present.
“I am never bound by a deal that I did not make,” said the mayor of Le Havre, vengefully, during a political office.
One thing is certain, according to Olivier Rouquan, "inability to find agreements is not useful to anyone. Disagreements just send the wrong signal to the
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