Forecasters expect the hurricane season, which begins on June 1, over the Atlantic Ocean, to be a stormy season.
What are the main expectations?
What are the most important climatic factors that will contribute to making this season more active than usual?
How many hurricanes are expected and their names?
What are the most important predictions for the 2022 hurricane season?
In the Colorado State University Hurricane Center's latest report on the 2022 hurricane season, a team of researchers and weather experts predicted 19 named storms.
This expected number exceeds the annual long-term average recorded during the period from 1991 to 2020, estimated at about 14 storms annually.
Nine storms are expected to become hurricanes, of which 4 will be large, with category 3 or more.
The report indicated that the probability of these hurricanes hitting the coasts of the United States will reach 71%, compared to an average probability that does not exceed 52% during the past three decades.
The University of Colorado forecast uses a statistical model based on statistical data for Atlantic hurricanes over the past 40 years, as well as findings from European and Japanese climate models.
For his part, the "AccuWeather" website, which specializes in weather forecasts, predicted that the season will witness higher-than-normal tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean, with greater possibilities of the possibility of severe hurricanes striking the American coast.
In a report published on the website, experts expected between 16 and 20 specific storms, about 8 of which were hurricanes.
Of these forecast hurricanes, approximately 3 to 5 of them are likely to reach major hurricane status with winds in excess of 180 kilometers per hour.
Experts point out that these forecasts are similar to the forecasts of last season, which witnessed 21 storms, 7 of which turned into hurricanes, 4 of which were severe.
Eight of these storms had a direct impact on the United States, and this year 4 to 6 hurricanes are expected to make landfall.
To prepare these forecasts, Accuweather experts studied a number of current weather trends, past hurricane seasons, and climate models.
Experts expect 19 storms, including 9 hurricanes, 4 of which are severe this season (Shutterstock)
What will make the hurricane season more active than usual?
According to experts, one of the main contributors to this is the warming of the waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
The data indicate that there is a warm circular current in the Gulf of Mexico, which is about 4 degrees Celsius more than usual.
It is capable of fueling a tropical storm and rapidly transforming it into a major hurricane in just a day or two.
In addition, University of Colorado experts predict that La Niña will continue in the eastern Pacific during the height of the hurricane season, which runs from June to October.
This phenomenon increases the likelihood that the season will be more active than usual.
On the other hand, the El Niño phenomenon, which will have a low probability of its appearance, weakens the activity of hurricanes as a result of causing an increase in wind speed in the upper layers of the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
These vertically blowing winds "rip" storms and reduce their strength and ability to become hurricanes.
According to experts, the prevailing weather in the northwestern part of the African continent will also affect the hurricane season of the current year.
Strong winds over Africa are expected to cause frequent tropical waves later in the season.
These tropical waves flow across the Sahara Desert of North Africa and into the open Atlantic, where they can transform into depressions or tropical storms.
The prevailing weather in the northwestern part of the African continent affects the upcoming hurricane season (NASA)
How will the severity of hurricanes this season compared to previous seasons?
Experts quantify the total intensity of a hurricane season by a measure known as accumulated cyclone energy, which is calculated based on the maximum wind speed of all tropical storms in a given season.
In the 2021 season, the accumulated energy index had reached 145 compared to 182 for the 2020 season, knowing that the normal value is 123. Both the past two seasons were more active than the normal rate when measured in terms of intensity.
Accuweather meteorologists expect the total cumulative hurricane capacity for the 2022 season to reach between 120 and 150.
It is noteworthy that the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season witnessed 21 named storms, 7 of which became hurricanes.
Hurricane Ida, a Category 4 hurricane, which hit Louisiana on August 29, was the most destructive of 2021.
The 2020 season broke records with 30 specific storms and 13 hurricanes, including 6 major hurricanes.
And this was only the second time the Greek alphabet was used to complete the season.
What are the names of hurricanes for the year 2022?
Since 1953, Atlantic tropical storms have been named from the lists created by the US National Hurricane Center.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, 6 lists of names are used periodically every 6 years, meaning that the list of approved names for the 2021 season, for example, will be used again in 2027.
The lists were initially limited to women's names only until 1979, when men's names were listed alternately with women's names.
Atlantic tropical storms are named from the lists created by the US National Hurricane Center (Shutterstock).
The list of hurricane names covers only 21 letters of the English alphabet, so experts from the World Meteorological Organization had to resort to the Greek alphabet to complete the 2020 season, during which 30 storms blew.
The English, French and Spanish names are used in balance in the list in order to reflect the geographical coverage of Atlantic and Caribbean storms.
The list is also gender balanced and respectful of societal sensitivities.
Sometimes names are removed from the list to avoid using the name of a deadly hurricane and causing heavy losses again.
Among the names removed were "Katrina" who was devastating in 2005, "Sandy" in 2007 and "Laura" in 2020.
According to the United Nations, the names of the storms that will blow this season over the North Atlantic will be: Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Daniel, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Carl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shari, Tobias, Virginia, and finally Walter.Keywords: