The time aspect
It takes time to prepare for a referendum.
Previous referendums in Sweden have been preceded by long public debates.
Many believe that that time does not exist today.
The heads of state of the NATO member countries will meet in June 2022. If a Swedish decision is to be made before that and enable a rapid process into NATO, it will thus be difficult to have a referendum before.
- There may be a window of opportunity now that may not exist later, if it is as urgent as we are talking about now, it will not have time to conduct a referendum, says political scientist Johan Wänström.
Complex subject
An argument against a referendum is that many of NATO's actions related to security issues are not public, which is why the full picture of what membership means may not be given.
Historically, people have been able to read and learn the subject before a referendum.
- The nuclear vote was preceded by several months of public education and the same with EU membership.
People learned a lot, says political scientist Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson.
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NATO: This is how NATO membership works
Only the Left Party pushes the issue
The Sweden Democrats were previously in favor of a referendum on the NATO issue, but have now abolished that requirement and are reconsidering their line.
The only party that demands a referendum is currently the Left Party, which is against NATO membership.
Party leader Nooshi Dadgostar believes that such an important decision must be broadly rooted in the electorate.
Risk of impact
Russia's stated goal is not to expand NATO.
Therefore, there is a great risk that Russia will try to influence public opinion if Sweden conducts a referendum on the issue.
Regardless of whether it would be a referendum, Russia is trying to influence the media, opinion and decision-makers, Säpo chief Charlotte von Essen warned recently.
Five questions about Swedish NATO membership
Is there any country that does not want Sweden to join?
29 sec
What happens if Finland joins but not Sweden?
37 sec
What do NATO gain from Sweden and Finland becoming members?
35 sec
Which country is most important to NATO?
15 sec
Are there only benefits to more members?
31 sec
The decision can be anchored in the voters
That the debate about NATO has changed rapidly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine could be a reason for a referendum, says political scientist Frida Stranne.
Then the debate has the opportunity to be broadened and all arguments for and against are presented on the table.
- The parties choose to proceed quickly one by one and not capture the public debate and public opinion, without having a long discussion about it.
The parliamentary election will not be an opportunity to vote based on the NATO issue.
These aspects could justify a referendum, says Frida Stranne.
One reason why it has gone so fast is because several parties do not want the issue to spill over into the parliamentary elections.
- The security policy analysis that we have been forced to do after Ukraine is going so fast, partly because the Social Democrats do not want this issue in the election campaign, says political scientist Henrik Oscarsson Ekengren.
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- Even if we are under pressure and it is an acute crisis, we still have to weigh the arguments for and against.
It is not always wisest to make long-term decisions in a crisis situation, says Lars Stjernkvist.
Photo: SVT
In the clip above, Lars Stjernkvist and Anders Lindberg discuss the internal process within the Social Democrats.