China News Service, April 27. According to comprehensive Taiwan media reports, Taiwan's "Central University" Taiwan Economic Center announced on the 27th that the total number of consumer confidence index (CCI) surveys in April was 71.77 points, a decrease of 0.47 points compared with the previous month, three consecutive years. Monthly decline, and fell to a 10-month low.
Among the six sub-indicators of Taiwan's CCI in April, the largest increase was "job opportunities", and the largest decrease was "time to invest in the stock market".
As for the price level, the survey result for this month was 31.8 points, an increase of 1.25 points from last month's survey result, reflecting that the public is still wary of inflation.
According to the Taiwan Economic Center, the index of employment opportunities in the next six months with the largest increase in this month's survey was 68.75 points, up 2 points from the previous month; Monthly fell 4.3 points, fell into severe pessimism.
Wu Daren, CEO of the Taiwan Economic Center, pointed out that the world is facing the challenge of inflation and interest rate hikes. Not only the stock market has reacted violently, but it may also hurt the real economy in the future. As a result, Taiwan's export momentum will also be affected in the second half of the year. Further impact on consumer confidence.
He believes that Taiwan's CCI has fallen to a new 10-month low in April, and it may continue to fall in the second half of the year. "Don't say that stagnant inflation is impossible in Taiwan."
Judging from the performance of various sub-indicators of the CCI in April, Wu Daren said that the Federal Reserve has started a cycle of raising interest rates, and it has frequently released hawkish comments, which impacted the confidence of the investment public. Recently, US stocks and Taiwan stocks have not been good. Stock timing became the sub-indicator with the largest decline, with the April survey at 41.6 points, a significant drop of 4.3 points from March and a 15-month low.
The indicator with the second largest decline is the timing of purchasing durable goods in the next six months. The survey result in April was 119.9 points, a decrease of 2.5 points per month; and the indicator of timing for purchasing real estate compiled by the Taiwan Economic Center and Taiwan Housing Cooperative also dropped to 116.35 points. Both hit new lows since November last year.
Wu Daren said that Taiwan's "Central Bank" followed the Fed to raise interest rates by 1 yard in March. The market is still concerned about the impact on the housing market in the future, and the buyer's mentality has also fallen into wait-and-see, causing the real estate purchase timing index to decline, but the index remains above 100. Still optimistic.
In addition to the issue of raising interest rates, Wu Daren also mentioned that inflation has not subsided from last year to this year, and even continued to add new variables.
Observing that the indicator of household economic conditions for the next six months in April was 79.15 points, a slight increase of 0.8 points, Wu Daren said that inflation has led to a continuous increase in household spending, crowding out other consumption, but interest rates may continue to rise this year, which is likely to make the household economy in the future. Confidence is relatively weak.