Wheat is expensive!
The reason why production cannot be increased is April 26, 17:01.
Bread, udon and pasta.
Items that are indispensable to our diet are likely to increase in price in the future.
Russia and Ukraine are the world's leading producers of wheat as a raw material.
The risk of supply stagnation due to the military invasion has increased, and prices have skyrocketed worldwide.
But wheat is also made in other countries.
Isn't it possible to reduce the price by increasing production?
With that in mind, I headed to the American breadbasket ...
(Los Angeles bureau reporter Nana Yamada)
Will the price increase of wheat-related products continue in the future?
There is a possibility that the prices of foods made from wheat flour will increase one after another in the future.
The Japanese government has raised the price of selling wheat imported from April to flour milling companies by about 17%.
Prices are at the second highest level ever due to poor harvests in North America, which is the main production area, and the tightening situation in Ukraine.
Along with this, major flour makers "Nisshin Flour Mills", "Nippon" and "Showa Sangyo" announced that they will raise the price of commercial wheat flour from the delivery on June 20th.
It is expected to have a wide range of effects on products made from wheat flour such as bread.
Price increases for household products
On April 22, Nisshin Seifun Welna, a major flour milling company, announced that it would raise the price of household flour and other products from the deliveries after July.
All of the products that are subject to price increases are indispensable to our diet.
(Price increase from July 1st delivery)
▽ 15 household wheat flour items approx. 4-6%
▽ Tempura flour Okonomiyaki flour approx. 4-6%
(Price increase from August 1st delivery)
▽ Somen, udon noodle products approx. 3 ~ 8%
▽ Pasta about 2 ~ 8%
Russia and Ukraine are “wheat powers”
Rising wheat prices are accelerating with Russia's military invasion of Ukraine.
Futures prices, which are indicators of international prices, hit a new high for the first time in 14 years in early March and are still 20% higher than before the invasion.
This is because wheat exported from Russia and Ukraine accounts for 30% of the world total.
<World Wheat Exports>
1st. Russia 2nd. USA 3rd. Canada 4th. France 5th. Ukraine
(2020 FAO = United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization)
Russia has been subject to economic sanctions by each country, and Ukraine has been unable to carry out its economic activities until now due to the Russian attack.
The threat of supply stagnation from the two “wheat powers” caused the price of wheat products to rise.
On the other hand, in the United States, Canada and France, there seems to be no major obstacle to production and export.
Is it possible to increase supply from these countries?
Headed to the American breadbasket
I am stationed in the United States, which has the second largest wheat export volume in the world.
I had no choice but to look it up and headed to the breadbasket.
Two and a half hours by plane from Los Angeles, where the bureau is located, to Portland, Oregon.
From there, I drove for three hours to reach Patterson, Washington, on the border with Oregon.
I visited Nicole Berg, a family farmer.
She grows wheat and corn on a vast land of about 80,000 hectares.
Immediately I heard it straightforwardly.
"Can't we produce more wheat?"
Asked Berg, who guided us to the huge tanks that lined up right next to the fields.
What is stored is the liquid fertilizer that is essential for growing wheat.
It is a blend of 4 types such as nitrogen fertilizer, which helps the growth of wheat and protects it from diseases.
Most of this fertilizer is actually from Russia.
Since the start of strict economic sanctions, it has become harder to obtain in the United States and prices have risen.
Mr. Berg bought it for 360 dollars (about 46,000 yen) per ton last year, but now it is said that it has more than doubled to about 800 dollars (about 100,000 yen).
Nicole Berg:
"If you reduce fertilizer just because it's expensive, you can't reduce the amount because it can affect the quality of wheat. Check the price every day and summarize when the price goes down even a little. I try to buy it. "
Fuel costs nearly tripled
Soaring fuel costs are a catch-up.
From tractors that cultivate fields to fertilizer-sowing machines to combines that harvest wheat, light oil is needed to run the necessary machines.
How much has the price of fuel used in large quantities in daily production increased?
Mr. Berg showed me the notes I had written by hand.
Light oil, which was $ 1.55 a year and a half ago, was now $ 4 in March.
Both fertilizer and fuel costs were rising faster than the selling price of wheat, and the more they were made, the higher the cost.
I can't make it even if I want to
In addition, supply chain disruptions are exacerbating the situation.
Mr. Berg ordered a new fuel-efficient agricultural machine for the summer when the planting season begins.
However, due to a shortage of parts, the manufacturer replied that the delivery would be two years later.
The increase in production costs is combined with the fact that the necessary machines are not available as expected, and even if you want to increase wheat production, you cannot increase it.
Nicole Berg
"I'm really frustrated that I want to make more and contribute to the lack of wheat. Russia's military invasion of Ukraine has brought tremendous uncertainty to American farmers."
Wheat shortage will continue for the next two years
Will the wheat shortage continue?
Experts who have studied wheat production in the United States for 40 years find it difficult to significantly increase production.
Professor Kim Anderson, Oklahoma State University
"Farmers want to increase production, but faced with rising fertilizer and fuel costs, many will have to give up. American agriculture is such a risk. It's the first time I've faced it, and even if the military invasion is over, the shortage of wheat will continue for two years. "
When we interviewed the soaring wheat production sites, we found that “another inflation” was a major barrier to increasing production.
And this composition doesn't seem to be a problem limited to wheat.
Such a situation will have a great impact on our lives in Japan.
In addition, the World Bank estimates that every 1% increase in food prices puts 10 million people in extreme poverty worldwide, even life-threatening for those living in harsher environments. ..
It was an interview that strongly realized that the world's food situation was greatly shaken by the military invasion by Russia.
Los Angeles bureau reporter
Nana Yamada
After working at Nagasaki bureau, economic department, international department, etc., she is currently affiliated from last summer.