To replace hydrocarbons and achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, the EU will need 35 times more lithium by that date than today (800,000 tonnes per year), researchers at KU Leuven University have calculated, for Eurométaux, the European association of metal producers.

Up to 26 times more rare earths will be needed (3,000 tonnes per year of neodymium, dysprosium, praseodymium, etc.), twice as much nickel, +330% cobalt, etc., essential elements for the equipment of tomorrow (electric cars , wind turbine rotors, storage units, etc.)

It will also require 33% more aluminum (4.5 million tons annually), +35% copper, +45% silicon, +10 to 15% zinc, according to this unprecedented estimate of European needs.

These calculations are based on the industrial plans planned on the continent, for example in the car, batteries, hydrogen...

"The good news", say the researchers, is that by 2050, 40 to 75% of needs could be covered by recycling, if Europe invests quickly in infrastructure, raises its mandatory recycling rates and attack at upcoming bottlenecks.

But in the meantime, it "exposes itself to critical shortages over the next 15 years for lack of greater quantities of metals to support the beginnings of its decarbonized energy system", they underline.

Climate objectives: the rare metal needs of the EU Eléonore HUGHES AFP

“If European industries do not secure their supplies over the long term, they risk disruptions or price increases that could slow down the energy transition”.

This risk particularly concerns lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and rare earths.

"Risk of new addictions"

"Europe must urgently decide how it is going to make up for its shortfall in the supply of primary metals", summarizes Liesbet Grégoir, researcher at KU Leuven and main author: "without a firm strategy, it risks new dependencies on 'regard to unsustainable suppliers'.

The researchers echo the alert launched in the spring of 2021 by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which invited the world to organize itself for these strategic resources, largely concentrated in a small number of countries.

A year later, "we see (in Europe) neither general support nor the conditions that would allow the continent to build its own supply chains", underline KU Leuven and Eurométaux, in their press release.

"And the window for action is shrinking: projects must be developed over the next two years to be ready in 2030".

A lithium extraction complex in Bolivia in July 2019 Pablo COZZAGLIO, Pablo COZZAGLIO AFP/Archives

Today, the EU depends mainly on imports of metals, for example from Russia for aluminium, nickel or copper.

Over the next decade, China and Indonesia will dominate the boom in refining capacity for battery metals, the report says, recommending that Europe tie up with socially and environmentally responsible suppliers.

The European territory itself could cover 5% to 55% of its needs for 2030, according to the report, which however raises uncertainties weighing on many projects (local opposition, immature process, etc.)

It must also open refineries, despite challenges, since the current energy crisis and soaring electricity prices have already led to the temporary closure of nearly half of aluminum and zinc refining capacity in Europe.

Finally, recycling capacities will need to be extended, metals being reusable, unlike fossil fuels.

Today, 40% to 55% of the aluminium, copper and zinc used in Europe already come from recycling.

Pilot projects exist, for example, for silicon, essential for solar panels, large volumes of which will reach the end of their life in 2035. By 2050, locally recycled metals could equip three quarters of the batteries of vehicles made in Europe, and all renewable energy magnets.

© 2022 AFP