Mosul - 

In the midst of the political crisis in Iraq, 6 months after the legislative elections held on the tenth of last October, and the failure of the political blocs to elect a President of the Republic and form a new federal government, the controversy has resumed in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq over its relationship with Baghdad.

The focus of this controversy came after statements that accompanied the visit of the Prime Minister of the Territory, Masrour Barzani, during his participation in a discussion held by Chatham House in London on April 20, on the sidelines of his recent visit to the British capital, in which he stressed that the implementation of the confederation system in Iraq would give The components in Iraq are more powerful, adding, "It is time for Iraqis to act differently, away from fear and intimidation, to ensure that the tragedies that occurred in the past are not repeated."

Barzani's statements recalled the experience of the Kurdistan Region in the referendum on its secession from Iraq in 2017, which was met with local and international rejection and led at the time to strained relations between the federal government and the region.

Al-Tamimi saw it as difficult to convert Iraq into a confederal system (Al-Jazeera)

What is a confederation?

Legal expert Ali Al-Tamimi says - commenting on the concept of confederation - that, according to constitutional jurisprudence, it means a joint union between different countries that are members of the United Nations, where they are united by cooperation and a common internal system, provided that each country maintains its policy and sovereignty.

Al-Tamimi adds - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that there are examples of this, such as the Confederation in the Arab League, the European Union, the Islamic Conference and many other examples.

On the call of the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Masrour Barzani in London to implement the confederation in Iraq to get out of the current problems, Al-Tamimi explained that the relationship between the federal Iraq and the Kurdistan region is a federal relationship, meaning that the state is divided into provinces and regions, provided that the political decision, foreign and internal policy and sovereignty are unified within a state. One is a member of the United Nations.

Noah: Masrour Barzani presented a general vision for the final solution to the problem of the components and their struggle within the Iraqi state (Al-Jazeera)

What is the possibility of switching to it?

Al-Tamimi continues - his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - by emphasizing that it is very difficult to transform Iraq into a confederal system, given that the Iraqi constitution stipulates in the first article that Iraq is a federal country and is made up of regions and governorates, and that the establishment of a new state requires the approval of the United Nations General Assembly, and a decision by The UN Security Council, as well as the necessity of issuing a special currency for the new country, which is very difficult for the region, according to Al-Tamimi.

As for the Kurdish journalist Saman Noah, for his part, he believes that the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Masrour Barzani, did not talk about the confederation within the framework of a draft program adopted by the Kurdish leadership and working to implement it. Even a specific project of the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani.

Noah continued - in his speech to Al Jazeera Net - that the experience of the referendum in 2017 failed and was abandoned by the Kurdish leadership under the pressure of the fait accompli internally, regionally and internationally, noting that the situation did not witness any developments calling for the revival of the project, and therefore the statements about the confederation do not go beyond being Just a general vision without a program or project to adopt.

On the other hand, political researcher Omar Abdul-Sattar asserts that the Kurdistan region of Iraq has gone through 3 historical stages: the first of which was its semi-autonomous government between 1991 and 2003, then its entry into federal Iraq according to Article 117 of the Constitution after the US invasion of the country and the overthrow of the regime of the late President Saddam Hussein , to reach the current stage, which is witnessing disruption of Kurdish partnerships, whether with Sunnis or Shiites in Iraq, under Iranian pressure.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Abdul Sattar continued that the justifications for the Kurdish confederation came after the recent legislative elections that took place last October, and the decisions of the Federal Court regarding the exclusion of the Kurdistan Democratic Party candidate Hoshyar Zebari from the presidency of the republic and then the repeal of the Kurdish oil and gas law and then the developments of the crisis By targeting Erbil with ballistic missiles from Iran.

Zangana saw that the issue of the independence of the Kurdistan region from Iraq was inevitable (Al-Jazeera)

What are its chances of success?

Opinions vary between those who see the possibility of the Kurdistan region going to a confederation and those who think otherwise, as the Kurdish political researcher Muhammad Zangana believes that the demand to amend the political system in Iraq is not new, and that Iraq had experienced centralization that did not benefit the country in anything, pointing out that Iraq, since it turned into a federal system after 2003, has faced the disruption of 55 constitutional articles by not implementing or bypassing them.

As a result, Zangana explained - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that because of the problems and political closure, the Kurds are now thinking of an alternative to get out of this situation, and that the proposed confederation will guarantee greater freedom and powers for each province and region in order to govern itself by itself, as he put it.

The Iraqi political arena is witnessing an unprecedented political closure following the disruption of the formation of the government after the tripartite alliance - which includes the Sadrist movement, the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party - failed to form the government, following the opposition of the Coordination Framework Alliance, which includes most prominent Shiite forces - with the exception of the current Al-Sadr and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, led by Bafel Talabani, played the role of the blocking third of the sessions of the Iraqi parliament.

And whether talking about confederation is a recall for the experience of the secession referendum in 2017, Zangana comments by saying that “the issue of the independence of the Kurdistan region from Iraq is inevitable, it is related to time and the internal and objective conditions of the region. 90% for secession, and that Kurdish independence will not wait for the confederation or others, and it is only a matter of time.”

Returning to Saman Noah, where he believes that there is no possibility for the region to secede or to go to the confederation, explaining that the region is now weaker than it was 5 years ago, in addition to the internal Kurdish divisions that he described as "big", and the failure of managing the economic file that drives most The Kurds have to abandon any idea or vision to cut off communication almost completely with Baghdad.

Noah continued, "The Kurdistan region's economic need for Baghdad will remain rooted for years to come, in addition to the security and administrative repercussions of the trend of secession, especially in light of the persistence of regional and international obstacles and obstacles," considering that the secession experience in 2017 lost the Kurds half of the lands they previously controlled in the disputed areas from Sinjar in the west to Kirkuk and ending with Khanaqin in the east.

The differences between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan have intensified following the dispute over the position of the President of the Republic, as well as the financial differences between the two parties and the demand of some politicians in Sulaymaniyah to return to the financial connection with Baghdad.

On the other hand, Omar Abdul-Sattar believes that the region is actually moving towards the confederation, especially since the political movements in the visits of the regional government to Turkey, the Emirates and Britain come in this aspect, and therefore the confederation is a continuation of the referendum on secession, but this time under regional and international sponsorship with the exception of the Iranian rejection, Pointing out that the confederation may not be in the Kurdistan region only, but may include other Iraqi regions in an international regional attempt to stop Iranian expansion.