Which Prime Minister for the new Macron five-year term?

• The question of the president is now settled, with the victory of Emmanuel Macron this Sunday evening.

  The next suspense therefore concerns the future Prime Minister.

• Jean Castex announced that he would submit his resignation, and a new resident could arrive at Matignon.

• So, who is preparing to co-lead France?

  20 Minutes

  introduces you to potential candidates.

Action reaction.

Emmanuel Macron was therefore re-elected President of the Republic this Sunday evening and will remain five more years at the Elysée.

Jean Castex, he is preparing to pack up from Matignon.

The Prime Minister announced ahead of the election that if the candidate En Marche won, he would tender his government's resignation.

A "republican use", in his words, which could leave room for a successor.

Goodbye then - no doubt - singing accent, territories and quarterly curfew announcements.

And if the name of the next head of government is not yet known, favorites emerge.

So, who will sign at FC Matignon?

takes stock of the most likely options for this political transfer window.

Elisabeth Borne, the technician

Strengths:

The skills of the current Minister of Labour, to begin with: "Elisabeth Borne is an excellent technician with a great mastery of subjects", notes Pascal Delwit, professor of political science at the Free University of Brussels.

Its political orientation, clearly assumed to the right, may also be appropriate a few weeks before the legislative elections: “During the presidential election, three blocs stood out in the first round: 35% of the votes on the right, 32% on the far right, and 30% for everything left.

It is therefore logical, in view of the legislative elections, to leave on a Prime Minister marked on the right, ”supports the political scientist.

Finally, Elisabeth Borne is a woman, "Emmanuel Macron has declared that he wants to breathe new life into democracy, and has put gender equality back as a priority for the five-year term", notes Bruno Cautrès, researcher at Cevipof and specialist in politics.

Only one woman has so far been Prime Minister in France.

Edith Cresson, thirty-one years ago.

Where it can sin:

The minister has the defect of her qualities: "She is too technical and not political enough", notes Bruno Cautrès.

Same analysis with André Fazi, lecturer in political science at the University of Corsica: "Elisabeth Borne lacks the personal political space to take on a very complicated position, the battle for the legislative elections is far from won, and that requires 'experience.

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Julien Denormandie, the rising star

Strengths:

Beware, the current Minister of Agriculture is a big favourite.

According to our three specialists, he ticks a lot of boxes: experienced in politics, one of Emmanuel Macron's first supporters from the start, recognized for his loyalty and for his work at the Ministry of Agriculture - "He is very popular with farmers”, recognizes Bruno Cautrès –, with a young profile (41 years old).

In addition, he is little known to the general public, which Emmanuel Macron seems to like in view of his previous choices as second man in power, Edouard Philippe and Jean Castex.

"If Emmanuel Macron wants to continue a Jupiterian policy, this can be an argument of choice," says Pascal Delwit.

Where it can sin:

A rising figure, certainly, but not yet a taulier: Julien Denormandie could suffer from his youth in the face of the legislative issue.

André Fazi: “He might not be politically experienced enough for this specific fight, not to mention that Emmanuel Macron should end the idea of ​​a stooge as Prime Minister.

He can no longer stand for re-election in 2027, and if he wants to leave a legacy in politics and for his party to survive him, he has every interest in finding a real successor and not a Jean Castex bis”.

Richard Ferrand, the old veteran

Strengths:

Former member of the Socialist Party, Richard Ferrand can be an option to seduce left-wing voters during the legislative elections.

His loyalty to Emmanuel Macron is well established, he who has had several positions in his team since 2016. Known, renowned, can Richard Ferrand make the difference?

Where it can go wrong:

Richard Ferrand could have worked… five years ago, but he seems to have missed the bandwagon, according to André Fazi: “In 2022, who still considers Richard Ferrand as a leftist?

It is labeled Macron and will not convince any voter.

In addition, it in no way embodies a political renewal or a second wind, essential for the start of the five-year term.

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Gerald Darmanin, right winger

His strengths:

Young (39 years old), having spent most of his political career under the Macron five-year term (Minister of Action and Public Accounts between 2016 and 2020, then at the Interior for almost two years), Gérald Darmanin has a number of qualities for the position: “He is clearly on the right, which can tip the scales for the legislative elections.

He is a man on the ground, who has been able to intelligently manage the situation in Corsica in particular, who is often sent into the debates, ”notes André Fazi, who sees him as a favorite thanks to this mixture of experience and youth.

Where it can sin:

The minister remains divisive, and perhaps “too” to the right for the legislative elections.

If the rape charges against him have resulted in dismissals, they remain in people's minds, and an appointment to Matignon could be very badly perceived, believe our experts.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the surprise left winger

His strengths:

In the eyes of Emmanuel Macron, probably few.

A post of Prime Minister for the leader of La France Insoumise would only come in the event of a clear success of LFI and the left in general in the legislative elections, forcing the president to leave Matignon to a member of this coalition.

A hypothesis in which Jean-Luc Mélenchon believes, who declared that he wanted to make the legislative elections a "third round of the presidential election" to allow him to accede to the post of Prime Minister.

Where it might go wrong:

The “political science fiction” side of this theory.

Pascal Delwit brings us back to Earth: “LFI is very far from having won.

The party won 22% in the first round of the presidential election, far from enough to crush the legislative elections, an election that they did not succeed much.

They have no mayor, no regional president and very few known deputies.

And even if they win, Mélenchon is wrong: it is not the legislative elections that elect a Prime Minister”.

Close the ban.

Elections

Presidential 2022: In the North, Castex tries to rehabilitate the image of a Macron close to the French

Planet

Presidential 2022: Yes, Castex emitted the equivalent of six months of CO2 of an average Frenchman to vote

• Emmanuel Macron

• Presidential election 2022

• Prime Minister

• John Castex

• Gerald Darmanin

• Elisabeth Borne