(International Observation) How will the international political tragedy end after the two-month-long war between Russia and Ukraine?
China News Agency, Beijing, April 24th: How will the international political tragedy end when the Russia-Ukraine war has lasted for two months?
China News Agency reporter Ma Jiajia
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been raging for two months, and the territory of Ukraine is still filled with smoke.
After five rounds of peace talks, the prospect of ceasefire and cessation of war between Russia and Ukraine is still unclear, and the spillover effects of the conflict are becoming more and more obvious.
How will this great international political tragedy end?
In this regard, Chinese international affairs experts analyzed in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that the prospect of Russia-Ukraine peace talks is subject to checks and balances by third-party forces, and the mediation effect of the international community depends on whether it has goodwill. No mess is the minimum."
The development of the situation is "two unexpected"
On April 22, the Russian military announced that one of the tasks of the new phase of the "special military operation" is to "completely control the Donbass and southern Ukraine".
The media also reported that "Russia assembled its elite troops to go south", and new trends appeared in the battlefield situation.
In response to the development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, Ye Hailin, deputy director of the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that since the conflict broke out two months ago, there have been "two unexpected developments" on the battlefield.
The first "unexpected" is that the Russian army did not solve the problem in a blitzkrieg manner.
Investigating the reasons, there may be factors of insufficient military preparation, or there may be the problem of adaptation between the formulation of its political goals and the choice of military means.
Another "unexpected" is that the sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia have not produced fundamental results, so Russia is currently showing a situation where it is not eager to solve problems on the battlefield.
From the current position of Russia and Ukraine, unless the supporters behind the Ukrainian government change their minds, the war will continue.
At present, even if it loses control of the Donbass, Ukraine still controls the Ukrainian Central and Uxi regions. Therefore, if Western countries continue to support Ukraine to fight, the war will continue.
Smoke rises after an attack on an air defense base in Mariupol, Ukraine, on February 24, 2022.
Ye Hailin pointed out that from this perspective, the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not a short-term issue.
On the surface, it is a war between Russia and Ukraine, but behind it is the wrestling between the United States and the West and Russia.
The two sides also have to distinguish between the two sides in the economic field: either Russia can withstand the economic sanctions, forcing the West to admit that the economic suppression is ineffective, and finally abandon Ukraine; or the Russian economy has been seriously damaged, so that it has to adjust its goals on the ground battlefield in Ukraine, but Both of these possibilities are now very unlikely.
Prospects of peace talks subject to third-party checks and balances
Russia and Ukraine have so far held five rounds of peace talks.
Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on the 22nd that "Ukraine's current performance in the negotiations is inconsistent and it is not ready to seek a solution acceptable to both parties." "All kinds of statements are made every day", giving the impression that they don't need these negotiations and they are "resigned to fate".
On March 29, local time, the Russian and Ukrainian delegations started a new round of face-to-face negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey.
The picture shows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaking before the talks.
In this regard, Ye Hailin believes that there is a high probability that the war will continue in the form of fighting and negotiating, and the prospect of peace talks between the two sides will be checked and balanced by a third party.
He pointed out that the so-called "talk" can be divided into face-to-face and behind-the-scenes talks, open and private talks, and direct and indirect talks.
At present, it is precisely private talks, especially indirect talks that will play a decisive role.
That is to say, the United States and Russia have contacted in an indirect way on the Ukraine issue, showing each other their cards and testing the bottom line.
When it comes to the biggest factor restricting the progress of the peace talks, Ye Hailin believes that it depends on the will of the third party, that is, the indirect parties involved in the war, not only on the battlefield situation.
To persuade peace and promote negotiation, it is necessary to "do not fight fire" and "do not add chaos"
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to this day, and the international community, including China, has been working to persuade peace and talks.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to Russia and Ukraine in the coming days to meet with Russian and Ukrainian leaders respectively.
In response to the mediation role of the international community, Ye Hailin said that the international community can play a very important role in the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, but we must be careful to avoid mistakes.
"Then in the current situation, it is the most basic not to smother the fire, and the minimum is not to add chaos," he stressed.
On April 5, local time, the UN Security Council held an open meeting on the situation in Ukraine at the UN headquarters in New York.
The picture shows UN Secretary-General Guterres speaking at the meeting.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Liao Pan
Ye Hailin further explained that the extent to which we can persuade peace and promote talks depends on the goodwill of the international community. We cannot choose sides or build walls easily.
On the other hand, we must also see the historical context and latitude and longitude behind the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The third is to see that under the current situation, China's proposal to persuade peace and promote talks is an effective way to fundamentally solve the problem.
Regarding the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ye Hailin believes that there should be no rush to make an assessment, because the war is still going on and the result is not yet clear.
The impact of different outcomes of the war on the global pattern has structural significance.
Ye Hailin further explained that in terms of the current situation, the decisive factor in the conflict is between the United States and Russia.
If Russia can withstand the pressure of the West, and even break the West’s hegemony, discussion and issue-making power to a certain extent, the result of the war is likely to trigger profound changes in the current international system, and it may even be a reorganization of the international structure.
However, if Russia does not win, it may even suffer heavy losses in the face of economic suppression by the West, or the other side may appear, that is, the West's global control will be further strengthened.
So the central question in analyzing the global impact is how the conflict will end, but in any case, it will be a huge change.
(Finish)