"The Alliance (Atlantic, editor's note) recently carried out a new large-scale military exercise in northern Norway. In our opinion, this does not contribute to the security of the region."

The words are from Nikolai Korchunov, a Russian diplomat who took part in the Arctic Council intergovernmental forum on April 17, and who expressed concern about NATO's increased presence in the Arctic since the start of the war in Ukraine.

If the Atlantic Alliance continues its activities in this area, "unintentional incidents" could occur, he also warned, without specifying what it could be.

In the Arctic, any "incident" can upset the current fragile balance.

This region is a potential gold mine – in terms of energy resources and maritime routes – often governed by multiple bilateral agreements between the various states with interests there: Canada, Finland, Denmark, United States, Iceland, Norway , Sweden and Russia.

These eight countries generally manage to get along, united by their common Arctic coastline, with agreements on maritime law, environmental balance and security needs.

“Relationships forged in the Arctic are not ones that can be broken quickly or easily, and they should not be. The Arctic is such a special area that it is essential to maintain stability in the short and long term. term", underlines Melanie Garson, lecturer in international conflict resolution and security in the department of political science at University College London, contacted by France 24.

But there are signs that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is already disrupting these fragile relations.

Russia shares the Arctic coastline with five NATO member states, Finland and Sweden – all of which support Ukraine militarily and financially.

Added to this is the boycott of discussions in Russia – which chairs the Atlantic Council until 2023 – announced in March by members of the Arctic Council due to the “flagrant violation” of the sovereignty of the Atlantic. 'Ukraine.

A halt to the work of the group.

"It's very unusual," notes Melanie Garson.

“The Arctic Council has survived periods of tension, but what we see in Ukraine is a turning point in history.

"A fifth ocean on top of the world"

In the Arctic, political and economic concerns are conditioned by the unique climate of this region and its rapid evolution.

Over the past 30 years, the thickest ice has lost 95% of its area.

At the current rate of evolution of greenhouse gas emissions, there could be no summer ice in place by 2040. 

The increased presence of man is an additional threat in this natural area already under pressure.

Until now, the climate emergency has been the main reason for international cooperation in the region.

The first step towards the formation of the Arctic Council was the Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy, signed in 1991 as an agreement between the states sharing the Arctic and indigenous peoples' organizations.

But the spectacular melting of the ice is changing the political and economic landscape of the region.

“We are witnessing the appearance of a fifth ocean at the top of the world,” warns Katarzyna Zysk, professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies.

"And when that ocean is there, it will be used for economic and military purposes."

The melting ice is also changing the military strategy of Russia – which owns 53% of the Arctic coastline.

"It's an incredibly large area. Russia's borders used to be protected by ice, but now it's disappearing, making it more vulnerable to potential attacks," Katarzyna Zysk said.

This is one of the reasons why Moscow has reinforced its military presence in the Far North in recent years.

In 2014, the Kremlin created an Arctic Navy (“the Northern Fleet”) based on the Kola Peninsula – close to Finland and Norway.

According to Katarzyna Zysk, this is where "Russia has its largest share of strategic submarines and other important non-nuclear capabilities".

"Ukraine has changed the game"

The creation of the "Northern Fleet" coincides with the annexation of Crimea by Moscow.

For international observers, Russia's military activities in the Arctic then took on an increasingly aggressive look, according to international observers, giving a new dimension to the stakes in the region.

After 2014, "Nato interests in the Arctic have increased", analyzes Katarzyna Zysk.

"Ukraine was a game-changer: even if Russia had remained cooperative and predictable in the Arctic, NATO could not separate what Moscow was doing in Kyiv from its military expansion in the High North." 

It was also about increasing NATO's presence in the Arctic to ensure that if Article 5 were triggered by a Russian attack in the region, the Alliance could retaliate with an adequate response.

However, Russia also continued to increase its military strength.

From 2016, it increased the frequency of its military exercises in the Arctic, even displaying an "ability to project power beyond its Arctic waters and assert maritime control", according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The current war in Ukraine has raised the stakes even further.

If Sweden and Finland join NATO – which they are seriously considering – all the states that share the Arctic, except Russia, will be part of the Atlantic Alliance.

"NATO will then carry out a strategic reassessment of the place of the Arctic within the Alliance, and the decisions it takes will determine future relations, and this could cause tensions with Russia", explains Melanie Garson .

Russia notably let it be known on April 14 that if Sweden and Finland joined NATO, it would deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in the Baltic region.

>> To read also: "Faced with its Russian neighbour, Finland's neutrality put to the test by the war in Ukraine"

Russia, "the main actor in the Arctic" 

That Russia is strengthening its military presence in the Arctic does not necessarily mean that it is doing so in view of a potential attack: Moscow also has other interests to protect. 

The Arctic could harbor the largest unexplored oil and gas reserves on the planet, according to a 2008 study by the US Geological Survey: potential billions of barrels, the majority of which would be found off the Russian coast.

"The region is very rich not only in energy but also in mineral resources, much of which is in the Russian zone. There are also large quantities of fish, a resource that could prove valuable given the food crisis. increasing in the world", adds Katarzyna Zysk.

The Arctic could also become an important transport hub.

The Northern Sea Route, which runs along the Russian coast, is currently blocked by ice for most of the year.

But if it weren't, it could become a very profitable shipping lane.

The time and cost of transporting goods would be drastically reduced between China and Europe via the Arctic – instead of South Asia and the Suez Canal currently.

These possible future prospects have increased international interest in the Arctic.

In addition to the eight core members, the Arctic Council has 13 observer countries that can propose projects in the region. 

This renewed interest in the riches of the Arctic has also "prompted Russia to strengthen its position, because it sees itself as the main (regional) player - and for good reason, considering the geographical location of the Arctic. country," said Katarzyna Zysk.    

But Moscow seems, so far, reluctant to extend this role to military confrontations in the Far North, despite the war in Ukraine between states with interests in the Arctic.

"Russia always protests when NATO conducts military exercises near its borders, but we have not seen any provocative behavior on its part in the Arctic", explains Katarzyna Zysk.

"She is trying to avoid the escalation of [the international reaction to] the conflict in Ukraine, knowing also that her army is already fully engaged there."

The war in Ukraine could also be a political turning point in the Arctic for Western countries, without this necessarily being akin to a rupture.

"The Arctic Council has paused its work but it is not disintegrating," says Melanie Garson.

"More than anything, trust has been seriously damaged with Russia, leading states in the Arctic to rethink their future relationship." 

But the need for collaboration and cooperation between states could ultimately outweigh political tensions.

"The Arctic is governed by a rather complex network of bilateral and multilateral agreements, concludes Melanie Garson, and I think that nations will be careful not to move away from it too quickly".

This article was translated from English by Soraya Boubaya.

The original can be found here.

The summary of the

France 24 week invites you to come back to the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news everywhere with you!

Download the France 24 app

google-play-badge_FR