The major challenges awaiting the next president

Europe 1 with AFP 12:07 p.m., April 22, 2022

Inflation, war in Ukraine, social fracture... The next president will have to face several challenges with lasting consequences as soon as he arrives at the Elysée.

ECONOMY

The next president inherits a complicated economic situation, with growth cut short by the war in Ukraine and inflation in ambush.

On the growth side, we risk losing this year "2 points of growth compared to the 4% that we could expect", estimates Patrick Artus, chief economist of Natixis.

But the biggest risk for the economy, "in the short term, is inflation", assures Emmanuel Jessua, economist at the Rexecode Institute.

From 4.5% in March, it could accelerate with the shortages linked to the conflict, and directly affect the purchasing power of the most modest...

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The room for maneuver is limited, while the health crisis has widened the trade deficit (6.5% of GDP at the end of 2021) and the debt (112.9%).

This drift in public finances complicates the financing of candidate programs (50 billion by Emmanuel Macron, and 68 billion by Marine Le Pen).

Especially if growth slows due to a rate hike by the ECB...

The economic and social terrain therefore promises to be shifting to initiate a possible pension reform, one of the challenges for the years to come.

And Labor Day on May 1 is already shaping up to be hectic, with security officials anticipating a combination of discontent.

"The first announcements of the elected candidate will be decisive," adds a police source.

FRACTURES

“Sunday evening, we will see the results with very marked fractures according to the distance of residence to large metropolises, the level of studies, but also the generational divide …” estimated Thursday on France Inter Jérome Fourquet, author of a study for the Jean-Jaurès foundation and Le Figaro, which sees "a real class divide" between a "France from above" and another "from below".

The Covid crisis has highlighted these economic, health, territorial fault lines... contributing to a malaise that had already exploded during the "yellow vests" crisis.

An election of Marine Le Pen could cause immediate tensions or demonstrations.

Emmanuel Macron also arouses strong hostility in part of the electorate, which would weaken support for his policy.

"The keystone of the next five-year term will be the factory of consent", recently affirmed Alexandre Malafaye, president of the Synopial think tank, on BFMTV.

Especially since the breakdown of the traditional left and right has reached an unprecedented level, two months before the legislative elections.

"Can't wait for the third round", has already launched Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

UKRAINE

The five-year term begins as the conflict in Ukraine takes hold.

With two more months of French presidency of the Council of the EU, the next Head of State will have to preserve the unity shown by the 27 since the start of the conflict, put to the test by the nagging question of gas purchases and Russian oil.

Consultation with Berlin and Washington will be essential, while the two candidates in the running do not have the same conception of relations with the Kremlin.

The name of the next president will also affect France's position on NATO, which Emmanuel Macron supports while Marine Le Pen has denounced its enlargement to the east.

CLIMATE

As heat waves and floods multiply under the effect of global warming, one of the challenges will be to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 (compared to 1990), as France is doing. is committed within the framework of the Paris agreements.

This requires a decarbonization of transport, agriculture, energy... especially as the commitment should be raised within the framework of the new climate objectives of the European Union.

According to the latest report from UN climate experts (IPCC) published last week, the world has three years to cap greenhouse gas emissions and hope for a "livable" future.

For the I4CE think tank, this new five-year term opens with a "double opportunity to develop a real strategy for financing the transition: the public finance programming law and the climate energy programming law".