The war of spaces... What are Russia's goals in controlling Donbass and what is its plan?

Ukraine

- All eyes are on the "Battle of Donbass" in southeastern Ukraine, which Moscow considers a "key stage" of a "special military operation" in Ukraine, which the latter and many countries of the world see as a "total" war that has been going on since February 24.

Apart from the declared goals of the Kremlin, related to the "liberation" of the entire territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of the Donbass region in favor of the "people's republics" in them, Ukrainian circles confirm the existence of other Russian goals and a strategy that Moscow pursues to achieve these goals.

According to these circles, Russia's goals extend far beyond the territory of the region, and most of them are not related to "protecting the lands and populations of the two republics" whose independence was recognized by Moscow before the war, and its battle strategy is based on this foundation.

destroy the ukrainian army

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that Russia's goal is to "destroy the Ukrainian army" in Donbass, especially since most of it is on the battlefronts there, and its soldiers there are "the most efficient", according to Presidential advisor Oleksiy Aristovich.

Local and Russian sources had estimated that half of the number of the regular Ukrainian army, amounting to about 250,000, was deployed in the vicinity of the Donbass region before the war, when most expectations indicated the outbreak of war there, and only there.

Banding and cutting supplies

In this context, the military expert, Mikhailo Zhirukhov, believes that Russia's strategy to achieve this goal lies in igniting several broad fronts, with a heavy cover of bombing before attempts to advance, based on the size of the equipment that it always excels in.

He added, "The Russian forces will try to advance later to encircle the Ukrainian forces in Donbas from the separatist east, from Kharkiv in the north, and Zaporozhye in the south, in conjunction with bombing all supply points and lines coming from the west, even if they are at their maximum."

Effects of Russian bombing in Kharkiv after Putin announced a special military operation in Donbass (European)

The earth is vacant

In a context related to the bombing operations, Ukrainian experts believe that controlling the land is more important for Russia than controlling the cities with their residents and the infrastructure they contain.

The military expert returns to tell Al Jazeera Net that the Russian forces will destroy every city that is intractable to them, regardless of any other considerations, and "this is what we saw in Sumy, Chernihiv, Bucha, Erbin, Kharkiv and Mariupol."

And he considers that "Russia's priority is to control the areas, regardless of the repercussions of this control on the cities and their residents, even if they are Russian-speaking citizens, as it claims, and what happened to the city of Mariupol is the best evidence."

safe road

Talking about spaces leads to the issue of the "land corridor" towards the occupied Crimea, which is repeated repeatedly by officials in both countries.

For officials in Ukraine, this is a major goal of Russia in its war, which explains the extent of its interest in controlling Mariupol, and the strategy of taking over the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, in part or in whole, to ensure the establishment of this corridor, and the survival of Ukrainian forces away from it.

Prelude to later stages

Finally, the Ukrainians almost unanimously agree that Donbass is not the last link in the chain of Russia's goals, and that its success in it will necessarily mean the transfer of those goals to other regions, including the capital, Kyiv, again.

The expert says, "Ukraine's resistance in the Donbass is what will draw the scenarios for the continuation or end of the war later. Kyiv and Western capitals are well aware of this, and this explains the amount of cooperation and military aid that we receive to thwart the Kremlin's plans, and increase the cost of its war."

Ukrainians in a combat position between the Lugansk and Donetsk regions of the Donbass region (European)

Victory before the holidays

In a related context, Oleksiy Aristovich, adviser to the Ukrainian president, believes that Russia will do everything in its power to achieve tangible results on the ground before Eastern Easter (on April 24) and Victory Day over Nazi Germany (on May 9).

"Moscow needs these results to present to the Russian people. In this context, I expect the Russian forces to increase pressure on 3 cities: Izyum in Kharkiv in the east, Mariupol in the Donbass region, and Mykulav in the south," the advisor said.