Stratfor: Will the war in Ukraine spark a revolution in Russia?

The American Stratfor website published an analysis that explores the long-term repercussions of the war in Ukraine on the Russian people, its position on it, and what this means for the future rule of Russian President Vladimir Putin for the country.

"Will the war in Ukraine spark a second revolution in Russia?" asked Ryan Paul, a Middle East and North Africa analyst for Stratfor, in his article, which was published under the title.

On the extent to which the Russian street supports Putin's war in Ukraine.

He pointed out in this regard that a poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) on March 5 revealed that 71% of the Russian people support the war.

The latest opinion poll conducted by the same center and published on April 8, revealed that domestic support for Putin has strengthened since the beginning of the Russian forces' "invasion" of Ukraine, with 81.6% of Russians expressing confidence in their president, a large percentage compared to 67.2% who They expressed their confidence in him before the "invasion" began on February 24.

A matter of time!

The writer believes that these numbers may be exaggerated, but they indicate the cohesion of the home front in Russia, especially in the absence of any anti-war movement in the Russian street so far.

But it is not known how long this situation will continue, especially if the war prolongs and the resulting stifling economic sanctions.

Paul says that Russian history has proven that repression at home and fighting wars abroad have not previously succeeded in ensuring the long-term continuity of political regimes in Tsarist Russia or the Soviet Union, although those policies, despite their shortcomings and the tyranny and corruption they entail, granted Russian leaders have the ability to withstand many major setbacks before the underlying imbalances in their political systems overthrow them.

The article suggests that any gap in the cohesion of the home front would lead to a major political rebellion, and that gap would not occur until after a series of failures by President Vladimir Putin and other Russian leaders, and it may require years of sacrifice by the Russian people, who will feel The burden of the war will be heavy, the longer it lasts, the more blood will be spilled from his sons, and more economic losses will be incurred.

Factors of the revolution

The writer stresses the importance of popular support in achieving victory in long-running wars.

He believes that the withdrawal of Russian forces from Kyiv indicates that Moscow is heading towards bearing the consequences of a longer military campaign than it had planned, and the painful economic sanctions that result from that campaign.

Some observers expect - and speak to the writer - that this will lead to a decline in the popular support enjoyed by Putin, paving the way for his eventual overthrow.

But they require the presence of 3 factors to achieve this scenario, namely:

Paul says that although these assumptions are questionable under the present conditions of Russia, they are not without some merit if we take into account the history of Russia.

The writer cites examples from history of the above, saying that the last Russian czar - Nicholas II - managed the First World War in such a disastrous way that he not only lost to the Germans, but his army and citizens turned against him.

An impromptu Stalinist coup in 1991, when the military refused to open fire on defiant crowds of citizens, was the final nail in the coffin of the Soviet Union.

The conclusion - according to the writer - is that there is a record of historical facts in which the Russian people turned against their weak leaders who do not care much about the blood of their people and their economy.

The Ukrainian army has now managed to deal a severe blow to the idea of ​​Russian military superiority, to the extent that the Kremlin has to admit that its army suffered "painful" losses during the war.