Swedish opinion on the NATO issue was for a long time deeply divided.

For a long time, public opinion was divided.

One third was for, one third against and the last third was uncertain.

Russia's attacks on Ukraine have strongly influenced this opinion and for the first time now more than half of the voters are for a NATO membership.

In Novus' latest survey, 51 percent say yes to a membership, while 24 percent say no.

Both changes are statistically significant.

The support for Swedish membership will be even greater if Finland joins NATO at the same time.

Then 64 percent think that Sweden should join and only 19 percent are against.

The strong public support for NATO membership will be important for the continued political process, not least for the Social Democrats' decision on the issue.

"Easier for S-party leadership"

The greater the public support for a membership, the easier it will be for the Social Democratic party leadership to convince the party of a yes.

According to Novus, there is also a clear majority among S-sympathizers to join NATO if Finland does so.

Then 58 percent of S-voters say yes, while 18 percent say no.

The Social Democrats have otherwise been opposed to NATO membership for a long time.

A change of position on such an important issue requires detailed argumentation.

It has already begun with Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson opening up for NATO membership and describing the threat from Russia.

At the same time, Aftonbladet, the heaviest Social Democratic leadership side in the country, is now turning to the issue.

Aftonbladet's leadership side is no longer for continued freedom of alliance, but wants a Swedish NATO membership.

This should also be seen as an expression of the turnaround that is now taking place within the Social Democrats.

At the same time, discussions are underway between the government and the parliamentary parties on security policy and NATO.

These deliberations will be completed in May.

"Finnish membership likely"

On the other side of the Baltic Sea, in Finland, a similar process is underway.

There they have come further in the matter.

The Finnish Government's report on the NATO issue, which was submitted to the Riksdag last week, contained clear wording that signals that NATO membership is likely.

At the same time, the Prime Minister of Finland Sanna Marin visited Stockholm to meet her Swedish counterpart Magdalena Andersson.

Both emphasized the importance of the countries making the same security policy choices.

No one criticized NATO.

Instead, they warned of Russian aggression.

The message was thus clear and even this has probably affected Swedish public opinion.

After the attack on Ukraine, it is obvious that more and more voters see Russia as a potential threat to Sweden as well.

At the same time, half of the voters believe that NATO membership would make Sweden safer.

In the past, the bourgeois parties (M, KD, C and L) have been in favor of membership, while other parties have said no.

The first to signal a turnaround was the Sweden Democrats, who are now opening up to say yes, provided that Finland also joins NATO.

From the Social Democrats, it is, among other things, Magdalena Andersson's statements that indicate that a turnaround is underway.

If this turnaround is completed, there will be a broad majority in the Riksdag for a membership.