Survey 4/4
Chad: one year after the death of Idriss Déby, the challenge of peace and freedom
Mahamat Idriss Déby who succeeded his father as head of the Chadian state.
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Text by: RFI Follow
15 mins
A year after the death of Idriss Déby Itno, the transitional military council created in the emergency is still in place.
The country expects an inclusive national dialogue which should make it possible to plan for the future.
However, the population is wondering about the projects of Mahamat Idriss Déby, who heads the CMT, and about the will of the soldiers to return power to civilians.
In this fourth and final part of our investigation, we return to the concerns and hopes of Chadians.
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For many Chadians, Idriss Déby is a thing of the past.
In the conversations, it does not matter that the light is not completely shed on the circumstances of his death, that the open investigation has (for the moment?) not succeeded.
► To read also, the first part of our investigation
: the last days of the marshal
These are the immediate concerns that occupy the inhabitants of Ndjamena in this month of April 2022. Oil and bread are increasing, fuel is difficult to find, power cuts are daily.
Young graduates come up against a sclerotic job market by the tens of thousands.
Child beggars multiply at crossroads and in markets.
Added to this are regional frustrations, community and land tensions which sometimes lead to killings, as in Abéché at the end of January or in Sandana at the end of February.
The people of Ndjamene are watching with concern the unfolding of the transition, which they hope will help safeguard the country's stability and release the energies of the youth.
“
The Cassandres were wrong, Chad did not collapse
.
The air-conditioned office of the Minister of State for Reconciliation and Dialogue, Acheikh Ibn Oumar, is an oasis of coolness near Place de la Nation, where the thermometer read 47 degrees that afternoon.
“
I believe that the events have brought about an awareness of the gravity of the situation among Chadians, of the need for stability
”, develops the one who chairs Codni, the Organizing Committee for the Inclusive National Dialogue.
This dialogue, desired by all actors, must mark the shift towards a new Chad, via elections whose results will be acceptable to all.
But it is the subject of many questions: when will it take place?
Already postponed several times, it should start on May 10.
"
We couldn't meet the 2021 target, because it was absolutely necessary to be as inclusive as possible, even if it meant wasting time
", recalls Acheikh Ibn Oumar, "
but this time, we have to meet the deadlines, if not the 18 months will end without concrete progress, and that will not pass with our partners
.
»
► To read: Chadian pre-dialogue in Doha: the government's proposals rather unwelcome
Necessarily, eyes turn to Qatar.
Since March 13, the transitional government has been discussing there under the aegis of local mediation with some fifty politico-military groups within the framework of a "pre-dialogue", the objective of which is to bring them to the national dialogue table.
But negotiations have been progressing laboriously for more than a month.
Some accuse the power of Ndjamena of wanting to "
drown
" the most representative groups in a vast whole, others accuse the main rebels of formulating demands that are sometimes unattainable.
“
The rebel leader, he puts himself in the position of the vigilante, he cannot let go and sign easily
”, concedes a minister, “
but there, they are dragging on voluntarily while asking for deadlines to be met.
It's quite paradoxical
.
»
Mahdi Ali, the head of Fact, will he be able to return to Chad?
Among the main formations in Doha, the UFDD of Mahamat Nouri, the CCMSR, which exploded along the way, the UFR of Timan Erdimi, and the Fact of Mahamat Mahdi Ali.
The cases of the last two are the most delicate.
“
Timan Erdimi no longer has any political and military weight abroad
”, attacks a politician from the Zaghawa ethnic group, that of the Déby clan, like him.
On the contrary, others believe that his links with certain securocrats, including within the Transitional Military Council, could make him a destabilizing element and that he will be, according to another party leader, "
watched like milk on the fire
", once back home.
For Mahdi Ali, the equation is even more complex.
“
He is the man who killed Déby.
If he returns, he exposes himself to clan revenge, and even state guarantees may not be enough
,” agrees one of the most senior figures in the transition.
"
I wouldn't advise him to go back
," adds another.
In this context, what can he negotiate?
The return of his lieutenants and the disarming of his troops while waiting for time to calm down?
Rumors are swirling about an attempt to reconstitute and rearm Fact forces in Libya.
“
Surely a negotiation strategy within the framework of Doha
”, considers political scientist Remadjy Hoinathy, who fears that the pre-dialogue “
gives birth to a mouse
.
“
I don't see Fact having the means to go on the attack again, it has lost most of its forces, and fighters are not recruited overnight
,” said a French officer.
Mahamat Mahdi Ali, head of Fact.
© Mahamat Mahdi Ali
"
The Chadians have a culture of negotiations between armed groups, and of incorporating combatants, so that should allow effective integration of combatants from the Doha groups, without destabilizing the whole
", reassures a high-ranking officer on this point. French army.
As the negotiations drag on in Doha, is the date of May 10 threatened?
“
No
” answer in heart Acheikh Ibn Oumar and Prime Minister Albert Pahimi Padacké, whose roadmap is to carry out the preparations for the dialogue.
“
Our summary work with the interior forces is ready, we will publish them very quickly, we must move forward
,” said the head of government.
Determination or method Coué, he hopes for a dialogue finished by the end of June "
the dialogue can last, we are not going to give imperative limits, but it would be good to conclude before the rainy season which will slow down the movements
", in order to have at the end of the 18 months, a “
legal arsenal
” to present.
"
We can then ask for a technical deadline to set up the Ceni, clean up the electoral file, hold a constitutional referendum and the elections before mid-2023
.
A delay of six months on a tangible basis would surely be something acceptable to the international community
”, engages a diplomat present on the spot.
This optimism, however, is not shared by all members of the government.
Two of them estimate that it will still take "
at least 18 months
" to complete the process.
An experienced minister recalls the "
heaviness
" and the "
quibbles
" that constitute an update of the electoral register and the establishment of an electoral commission: "
good elections, if that is what we want, is long to do
.
»
All this without taking into account the internal opposition of political actors and civil society.
On April 6,
the Wakit Tama platform
, formed to denounce the sixth term of Idriss Déby, and which is continuing its fight against the CMT, announced that it was breaking off discussions with the authorities, whom it accuses of "
duplicity
".
"
We are simply asked to join the dialogue without any thought, like panurge sheep
", his spokesperson, Me Max Loanlgar, got carried away on our antenna, for whom the transition is "
at an impasse
".
Max Loalngar (center), leader of the coordination of citizen actions of Wakit Tamma, Barka Michel and Citak Yombatinan, at a press conference on June 8, in Ndjamena.
AFP - DJIMET WICHE
Central personality of this "
radical
" opposition, the leader of the Successful Transformers Masra, very popular among part of the youth who see in him a man of integrity and completely outside the system, specifies the grievances: "
We also need a pre-dialogue, because the account is not there.
To participate, you need an objective transition, that those who lead it are not judge and party, so you have to record the ineligibility of the actors, as requested by the African Union.
We need a consensual agenda and agreement on the themes we will discuss.
We also need fair representation, on which we have no commitment, and elements of relaxation, such as the release of prisoners or progress in investigations related to police or military violence
.
»
“
We think we can rally them to the consensus, but they must not fall into nihilism, they must make untenable prerequisites to flatter a nascent electoral base, which they try to retain
,” replies a minister.
"
If they want to exclude themselves, that's their problem, but it would be a serious political error
", judge for his part the secretary general of the MPS, the Patriotic Movement for the Salvation of the late Idriss Déby, and president of the National Council of transition (CNT, the transitional assembly), Haroun Kabadi.
Among the opponents, we do not necessarily rule out the idea of a "
second phase
" of 18 months, but with new institutions that would encompass them, to prepare for the elections.
The thorny question of the eligibility of actors in the transition
The heart of their demands is to prevent the continuation within a legal framework of the family succession at the top of the state which took place on the death of the marshal last year.
“
For the moment the CMT is accepted, because he must leave at the end.
But if he doesn't?
We cannot go into a phase of "debysm after Déby", remain in the family, clan management of the power that some want to keep by all means
, "says Success Masra.
“
I don't believe that the PCMT (president of the Transitional Military Council) will leave
”, adds the opponent Yaya Dillo, “
I'm sure he will renege on his word.
We see him doing tours that look like a pre-campaign, making promises is clientelism
.
»
Other political actors, on the other hand, believe that if the dialogue is “
truly inclusive, sovereign and binding, it is going to be difficult to prevent anyone from showing up
”.
"
It's hard to say that we want to be as inclusive as possible in the dialogue but then some will be excluded from the electoral process
," said one of the main leaders of the transition.
"
The PCMT cannot decide right away, because if it says it is not going, it will whet the appetites in the system, and if it does, it will lose popular support
", he analyzes.
“
Kaka's situation is complicated.
He does not have free rein to take the simplest act of all: his ineligibility
,” comments an executive from an armed group present in Doha.
On the subject of his retention, or not, in power, Mahamat Idriss Déby blew hot and cold, as in June 2021, in Jeune Afrique: “
The members of the CMT will not stand for election once their mission has been accomplished .
.
It is a commitment that was made before the people.
That said, as a believer, I think we have to leave God his part.
God decides everything, fate and power
.
»
The fear of internal destabilization
If the external threat has receded, which the various actors bring to the credit of the CMT, that of internal destabilization is on everyone's lips.
"
Sudanese scenario
", "
conservative coup
", politicians, members of civil society, diplomats, all echo persistent rumors.
"
Of course we all fear that Mahamat Idriss Déby does not want to let go of power
", agrees Théophile Bongoro, opponent who joined the dialogue, "
there are too many convergent interests around him, securocrats and clanism, who have a vision of power based on strength and property.
»
“
To succeed in the transition,
Mahamat Idriss Déby
must threaten these interests.
Everything will depend on his capacity to resist
”, judges a source who has gone back and forth between power and rebellions, “
it is risky for his own life
”.
These concerns are expressed within the authorities themselves, as by this leading minister: “
the threat can come from within.
There are internal difficulties to manage.
Power relations issues
.
To avoid unrest, “
perhaps a special status should be given to members of the CMT to ensure a smooth exit?
asks the opponent Success Masra.
"
Since the beginning, Mahamat Kaka has walked a tightrope between the interests of the zaghawas and the interests of the population
", analyzes for his part a diplomat.
“
As for the ballot, his interest is to keep the mystery
.
»
If it is certain for some that Mahamat Idriss Deby will try to stay in power, others on the contrary praise his temperance, his sense of the general interest.
Kaka would be “
generous, balanced, frugal and pious
” according to one of his advisers.
“
We were among those who entered the national transition council with the hope of progress
,” explains Théophile Bongoro, who retired at the last moment of the last presidential election.
“
We are quite divided at the moment.
There is a real breath of fresh air from the point of view of public and political freedoms, but the transition seems to be struggling to move forward, the government is dispersing and should stick to its roadmap, which is to organize dialogue
.
»
In fact, the public space has been open for a year.
The marches are supervised but authorized, the Transformers of Success Masra received their administrative approval and organized a big meeting at the beginning of January in a stadium in the capital, many exiles have returned, sometimes after several decades abroad.
The regime's "catch of war
"
, Kingabé Ougouzeïmi de Tapol, former spokesperson for the CCMSR and then for Fact, returned to the country at the end of January: "
On the 20th, I led my last meeting of Fact, and on January 26 I was at N'Djamena.
Of course I understand the resentment and vexation of my former comrades, but now my job is to convince them to do the same.
We are in a moment of rupture of context.
My analysis was to support it.
I was abroad for 30 years, I think it was the right time
.
»
A speech that Makaïla Nguebla also holds.
One of the most critical bloggers of the regime, he returned at the end of 2021 after almost 20 years in exile.
In January, he was appointed adviser to the presidency, in charge of human rights: “
I find the PCMT very attentive.
I really think he intends to turn things around.
I try to bring my stone to the building.
We'll see if it works for the future, but I thought it was a good time to try to act from the inside
.
»
“
We want to go out the front door.
When tomorrow the mission is completed, we will return to our barracks
”
A general of the CMT
In the presidency, he rubs shoulders with two strong men: Abdelkerim Idriss Déby, known as "Kerimo", half-brother and chief of staff of Mahamat Idriss Déby, and Idriss Youssouf Boy, his private secretary, who has no shortage of enemies in Ndjamena, annoyed by what they call authoritarianism.
"
These kids have only a vague idea of the reality of power, they risk hitting the wall
", predicts a figure of the Zaghawa community opposed to the Déby clan.
Among the soldiers, officially, the result is not in doubt: “
we arrived in an exceptional situation with a mission, to preserve the integrity of the country
”, tells us one of the generals of the CMT.
“
We want to go out the front door.
When tomorrow the mission is completed, we will return to our barracks.
For thirty years, I have held all positions, it is time for me to take advantage of my retirement
, ”smiles this officer, longtime companion of Idriss Déby senior.
“
We are security
”, adds one of his comrades, “
the rest is up to politicians to see: if they can finish in 18 months, so much the better, we leave room, but 18 months is renewable once, if necessary
.
»
► To (re) read: Nousradine case in Chad: the two brothers of the former first lady Hinda Déby released
The reform of the army will be one of the main unknowns for the future and a point of tension.
The French soldiers, who are full of praise for the combativeness and efficiency of their best allies in the Sahel, do not hide the fact that they are worried about "clanism" for the benefit of the Zaghawa community, very minority in the Chadian population, but over-represented in the security apparatus.
“
The population, on the other hand, is breathing, because so far everything is going well
”, adds the figure already quoted from this community, “
it remains calm and accepts the transition, provided that Kaka leaves at the end.
But the fragility is still there, the risk of explosion too, very real, inevitable I fear, to purge the system
.
»
►
"
Death of Idriss Déby: investigation into the great enigma
"
is an investigation coordinated by François Mazet and Florence Morice, with Franck Alexandre, Madjiasra Nako and Esdras Ndikumana.
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Idriss Deby Itno
Mahamat Idriss Deby
Death of Idriss Déby: investigation into the great enigma
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