Thomas Friedman: Free advice to Putin.. Make peace, you "idiot"

While Russian President Vladimir Putin embarks on his alternative plan based on a massive military operation to try to capture at least a small part of eastern Ukraine to justify his illegal war, I still hope that this "idiot" will eventually seek a dirty bargain to save his face and stop the war.

This is what the American writer Thomas Friedman said in an article in The New York Times, in which he said that he thought about who could give Putin the best advice at this moment, and his choice settled on John Arquilla, one of the eminent masters of grand strategy in America, who retired Most recently as Distinguished Professor of Defense Analysis at the US Naval Postgraduate School.

He adds that when he called Arquilla and asked him what he would say to Putin today, he did not hesitate for a moment. He replied, "I will tell him: 'Go for peace, you idiot'."

Friedman pointed out that Arquilla did not come up with that phrase from a vacuum, citing a story from World War II that after the Normandy landing on June 6, 1944 and the resulting victory of the Allies over the German forces, and after the failure of the Germans under the leadership of Marshal Gerd von Rundstedt in their attack This commander called Berlin to inform the Chief of Staff of the Army, Wilhelm Keitel, what had happened. He asked him, "What should we do now?", to which von Rundstedt replied, "Incline to peace, you fools, what else can you do?"

The next day - says Arquilla - von Rundstedt was removed, which is not much different from what Putin had just done, as he brought in a new great general who helped crush the opposition in Syria with excessive brutality to run the second phase of his war, indicating that this did not work with the Germans.

But - without making any predictions - Arquilla explained why he believed that Putin's army, in this new phase of the war, could face fierce resistance from the Ukrainians, despite their lack of strength and equipment.

Friedman explained that Arkiola said that the strategy currently used by the Ukrainians is in line with 3 new rules of war that he had outlined in a book he wrote on the new challenges of wars.

As for the first of those rules, according to Archiola, “a lot of light beats loose of heavy,” which he said applies to Ukrainians who move in small units armed with smart weapons, which are thus able to disrupt much larger formations, attack slow-moving helicopters, and so on.

Although they are outnumbered by the Russians, the Ukrainians have much more units than the Russians, and a division usually has between 8 and 10 men.

Arquilla asserts that these small Ukrainian units armed with smart, precision-guided weapons such as suicide drones, anti-aircraft weapons and light anti-tank weapons "could eliminate the largest and most well-armed Russian tank units".

As for the second rule of modern war that takes place in Ukraine, it is that whoever discovers the other first can neutralize him, especially if the enemy is made up of a few large units, such as a 40-mile convoy of tanks and armored personnel carriers, here it is enough for the Ukrainians to turn the life of the attackers into hell. Use small teams without having to encircle them with equal force.

And about how the Ukrainians became adept at detecting their enemy quickly, Arkula says that they make very good use of small drones, especially those Turkish super planes, as he described it.

Above all, Arkiola sees human sensors - the unofficial Ukrainian Observer Corps - that are destroying the Russians, as grandmothers, children and anyone else with smartphones can outperform satellites, according to the author.

They - according to Archiola - call to reveal to the Ukrainian army the locations where the Russian units are and where they are moving, and thus this gives those forces this great advantage in finding the Russians in this large country, which provides their small units equipped with smart weapons with real-time intelligence information It can be used immediately.

With regard to the third rule, Arkiola says that war is no longer just a numbers game, as he no longer needs those large numbers in order to thicken a party in his enemy, citing as an example the video clips that spread of a long convoy of Russian tanks surprising the Ukrainians with the disruption of the first and the last, thus making the Russian forces Unable to maneuver and take advantage of the opportunities that this provides.

And about Archiola's expectations for the development of events in Ukraine, he says that the Russians will continue to use intense bombing, and they will be less conservative when doing so in eastern Ukraine than they were in its western lands.

"I am not saying that the Russians will be expelled from eastern Ukraine, but I am trying to answer the question: Why did the Ukrainians perform so well? That is because they applied all these new rules of modern warfare," he says.

Friedman commented that they would certainly continue the same course, foreshadowing a new, long, terrible and mutually destructive round of war, in which neither side is likely to be able to deliver the final blow to the other, and then who knows what will happen?

Friedman asks.

I still hope that the foolish Putin will eventually seek a face-saving, dirty deal that includes a Russian withdrawal, some sort of independent status for the more pro-Russian eastern regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, and Ukraine dropping demands to join NATO, with Kyiv giving the green light. to join the European Union and give it security guarantees against any new Russian invasion.