For many this year, the holy month of Ramadan has become a confrontation with the dire economic reality. Global food costs have risen by more than 50% from mid-2020 to a record high, and families around the world are trying to deal with pressures on their budgets.

In an article published by Bloomberg, authors Tarek Tablawy and Suhail Karam noted that governments in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, which have large urban populations and lack oil wealth, are struggling to maintain food and fuel subsidies in order to rein in discontent. Popular.

In North Africa, the challenge is made more acute by a legacy of economic mismanagement, drought and social unrest that is forcing governments to walk a political tightrope at a precarious time.

According to the International Monetary Fund, net food and energy importers in the Middle East and North Africa are particularly vulnerable to shocks to commodity markets and supply chains caused by Russia's war on Ukraine.

Egypt

According to a Bloomberg article, the World Food Program has warned that people's resilience has reached a "breaking point", while the UAE has moved to help its ally Egypt - the world's largest wheat buyer - to enhance its food security and stave off potential instability, and Cairo is also seeking to obtain Help from the International Monetary Fund.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has tried to push ahead with reforms to revive the economy since coming to power in 2014 without fanning popular frustration.

A few weeks ago, Egyptian officials were quick to brag about the fact that the economy of the most populous country in the Arab world had weathered the repercussions of the epidemic and recorded strong growth, and inflation was also under control.

But that changed after Russia's war on Ukraine since February 24. Investors withdrew billions of dollars from the country's debt market, the currency fell by 15 percent, and Egypt banned exports of major food items including flour, lentils and wheat.

By early last March, the war had led to a rise in the prices of wheat flour by 19% and vegetable oils by 10%, according to the Egyptian government. percent of it on sustenance, according to the state-run statistics agency, Bloomberg adds.

Tunisia

The Bloomberg article believes the situation is worse in Tunisia, the country that sparked the Arab Spring revolutions, and which has been mired in political turmoil ever since.

The authors say that the blow to the Tunisian economy as a result of the internal conflict between officials, its effects are now magnified thanks to Covid-19 and Russia's war on Ukraine.

The central bank has warned that strong measures must be taken to reform the economy, but such efforts have been repeatedly blocked by the powerful UGTT, at a time when Tunisia is also turning to the International Monetary Fund amid warnings of the risk of defaulting on its debt.

The government aid to offset the decline in business has barely made a significant impact, and it can barely cover utility bills, the authors say.

Morocco, West, sunset

As for Morocco - the Bloomberg article adds - growth is expected to decline to 0.7% this year, about a tenth of its level in 2021, and the Central Bank expects inflation to reach 4.7%, a relatively modest rate compared to even parts of Europe, although it It is still the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.

Morocco's Central Bank Governor Abdellatif Jouahri said managing the "external shock" of the war might force Morocco to seek a prudential liquidity line from the International Monetary Fund.

He added that Morocco is facing an "unprecedented situation".

The war in Ukraine threatens to inflame popular anger over prices and bring the country's financing needs to historic highs.