Security, immigration: doubts about the figures of Marine Le Pen's profession of faith

Europe 1 with AFP 11:59 a.m., April 14, 2022, modified at 12:00 p.m., April 14, 2022

The National Commission for the Control of the Electoral Campaign (CNCCEP) finally decided to "approve" Marine Le Pen's profession of faith, already printed, but maintaining its "reservations" on the mention "source Ministry of the Interior" , combined with figures on insecurity and immigration.

The "gendarme" of the presidential campaign, who made his decision on Wednesday evening after hearing representatives of the candidate of the National Rally, "deplores" that the latter "decided to proceed with the printing" of the document before have submitted "to the planned approval procedure".

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But "taking into account the nature and scope" of the reservations and the "material impossibility of proceeding to a new printing" due to a shortage of paper, he considers that a rejection of the profession of faith "would have disproportionate consequences".

This would expose "voters to the risk of not having a written copy of the declarations for the two candidates (...), whereas the sending of these declarations constitutes an important guarantee of the ballot", continues the Commission.

Security: has Marine Le Pen put forward the right figures?

In his sights, two figures put forward by the far-right candidate to illustrate Emmanuel Macron's assessment of insecurity and immigration: "+31% of intentional attacks since 2017" and "1.5 million additional immigrants who have arrived legally in France".

The Commission asked the candidate to "provide the elements to justify the mention: 'source Ministry of the Interior'".

It "maintains the reservations" formulated on this mention and "therefore calls the attention of the voters to these mentions".

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According to figures from the statistics service of the Ministry of the Interior (SSMSI), the number of victims of intentional assault and battery rose from 233,600 in 2017 to 306,700 in 2021, an increase of 31.29%.

But, underlines a source at the Ministry of the Interior, "it is intra-family violence that is increasing, in connection with the freedom of speech, the Grenelle of domestic violence and the improvement of the reception of victims".

Excluding domestic violence, the number of victims of intentional assault and battery rose from 133,000 in 2017 to 149,200 in 2021, an increase of 12.18%.

What migration balance for the Macron five-year term?

Regarding immigration, just over 1.4 million first residence permits were issued between 2017 and 2021 to nationals outside the European Union (including "Brexit" residence permits for the British), according to figures from the ministry. of the Interior, an order of magnitude similar to what Marine Le Pen wrote.

However, these figures do not constitute a snapshot of immigration flows during the five-year period because they include the regularizations of people residing for several years in France (before 2017) and do not take into account departures, in particular foreign students who, most often return to their country of origin.

Thus, according to INSEE, the cumulative net migration (difference between entries and exits) has been +776,000 people since 2017.