China News Service, Berlin, April 14th. Five authoritative economic research institutions in Germany released the latest spring report on the 13th, in which the GDP growth forecast for Germany in 2022 was lowered from 4.8% to 2.7%.
The report pointed out that the uncertainty of energy supply caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the impact of the new crown pandemic have decisive significance for the downward adjustment of economic growth forecast.
For the economic growth forecast for 2023, the research institute forecasts 3.1%.
The above growth forecasts are based only on the so-called "base case" set by the researchers, in which natural gas supplies continue and the economic situation does not escalate further.
In the event of an immediate interruption of Russian gas supplies, German GDP is expected to grow by just 1.9% in 2022 and shrink by 2.3% in 2023.
In addition, under the "base case", the report expects German inflation to reach 6.1% in 2022, the highest in 40 years; if Russia's energy supply is interrupted, inflation will reach 7.3%, which would be the highest rate since the existence of the Federal Republic of Germany the highest value.
In the "base case", inflation in Germany is expected to be 2.8% in 2023, rising to 5.0% in the event of energy supply disruptions.
"If the supply of natural gas is interrupted, the German economy will face the threat of a sharp recession." Stefan Coates, deputy director of the Kiel Institute for World Economics in Germany, warned.
It is reported that the report is jointly completed by the German Institute for Economic Research, the Yves Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for World Economic Research, the Halle Institute for Economic Research and the Rhein-Westphalia Institute for Economic Research, and is released every spring and autumn. , which is an important reference for the German federal government to formulate economic policies.
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