The Governor of the Riksbank has not made himself known for being upset in the first place, but now one still wonders if he did not put the Easter egg in his throat this morning.

Inflation was 6.1 percent in March.

Of course, it was expected that the inflation rate would take another step up from last month's 4.5 percent: Now the effects of the war in Ukraine are with us for the first time.

The war creates oil chaos and it is noticeable that it costs 46 percent more to refuel the car than in March last year.

Electricity is 34 percent more expensive.

Of course, it is noticeable to many.

But the worst thing for those who have the least money is that these price increases have already propagated to most of what we buy.

Food has become 5.8 percent more expensive, other household goods 8.1 percent.

Anyone who wanted to shop cheaper in March than the previous month was almost referred to the bookstore: the book sale starts at the end of February.

Actually, it is not surprising that rising electricity and fuel prices are spreading to the rest of the economy.

It uses electricity to run farms and factories, and fuel to transport both components and finished goods.

It is clear that producers want to charge consumers for it.

Component shortages and expensive ship freight

But electricity and fuel usually fluctuate sharply up and down.

The Riksbank and other central banks still have a habit of ignoring them when assessing how inflation should develop in the future.

They simply do not believe that rising electricity and fuel prices will have time to spread before they have had time to fall back again.

And thus they will not have time to lead to demands for higher wages to compensate for inflation, which is the beginning of the damaging upward spiral of wages and prices that is so bad for the economy, competitiveness and jobs.

And which the Riksbank must counteract with interest rate increases.

But - as usual one is tempted to say - economic assessments and forecasts work horribly as soon as something out of the ordinary happens.

This can be a mortgage crisis in the United States, a pandemic, an invasion war in Ukraine or pretty much anything else.

There are several such "transient" factors from the pandemic that still affect: component shortages and expensive shipping, for example.

Inflation will fall back after the summer, the US Federal Reserve said last spring, 2021. This week, the outcome for March 2022 came in the United States: 8.5 percent inflation.

Here at home, the Governor of the Riksbank, Stefan Ingves, announced as recently as February that the Riksbank assesses that energy prices will not continue to increase this year.

Then Russia invaded Ukraine.

Both electricity and fuel have risen by 12 percent since then, according to current statistics from Statistics Sweden.

"The Riksbank must drop the idea of ​​zero interest rates"

It is obvious that the Riksbank must drop the idea of ​​a zero interest rate by 2024. It is not excluded that there will be a first interest rate increase already at the next interest rate announcement on 28 April, but otherwise later this year.

The Swedish people are thus waiting for another blow: the mortgage blow.

Inflation alone can impair purchasing power this year by many hundreds, or even thousands, for those with spacious homes and cars.

And that despite the government's support package with car subsidies and other things.

Mortgages may well cost an extra five hundred kronor a month, per million in loans, at the end of the year.

This is based on the Riksbank raising the interest rate to one percent, from today's zero, already this year.

It is well increased, but something you should still take into account.

That's a lot of money should be enough.

Maybe someone will thank the police for pulling out and putting the Swedes under national arrest without a passport during the summer - a missed trip abroad this summer could mean much-needed money left in the account this autumn.