Will purchasing power monopolize the second round of the election?

• In their post-first round speeches, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen mentioned purchasing power.

• A theme already omnipresent in this presidential campaign and which could impose itself even more during the next two weeks.

• Major concern of the French, non-ideological theme for the undecided, social target, the theme is not lacking in interest.

It is 9:45 p.m. this Sunday, April 10, and Emmanuel Macron, who came out on top in the first round of the presidential election, is giving his victory speech.

After having the names of the other candidates applauded, the outgoing president returned for ten minutes to the issues of purchasing power and economic questions, and to the need for his camp to prove to the French that it was Macronie, and not , the National Rally, which holds the keys to a better standard of living for all.

A speech that sets the tone for the next two weeks: this second round will be played in part on purchasing power, placed in absolute priority for the French during this presidential election.

Marine Le Pen has made it her hobbyhorse since the start of the campaign, and Emmanuel Macron has been presenting more and more social measures and boasting of his economic record for a few weeks, after a start of the "full right" campaign.

Purchasing power, a subject that is here to stay

Between inflation, the crisis in Ukraine, the rise in energy prices and the economic uncertainties of a post-covid world, "purchasing power is a subject that is set to last for a long time in French concerns", notes Alexandre Eyries, HDR teacher-researcher in information and communication sciences, specializing in political communication, at the University of Burgundy, author of

(Universitaires De Dijon Eds, March 2021) and

(ISTE Ed., May 2021).

And it is certainly not the two short weeks between the two rounds that will dissipate the fixation of the French around the end of the month.

A question that is all the more central for the two finalists in view of the societal distribution of votes.

“Election is by social class and income level.

The working classes vote massively for Marine Le Pen, while the wealthiest are in favor of Emmanuel Macron”, argues Benjamin Morel, doctor of political science at the ENS.

According to a study by Ipsos, households with a monthly net income of less than 2,000 euros voted 28.5% for Marine Le Pen, and only 17.5% for the outgoing president.

Conversely, households with a monthly income of more than 2,000 net voted 31.5% for Emmanuel Macron, and only 23% for Marine Le Pen.

The underprivileged classes voted almost three times more for Rassemblement National than for En Marche (37% against 13%), and the gap is even greater among wealthy or privileged backgrounds (53% of them voted for Emmanuel Macron, against 8% Marine Le Pen).

Convince on money more than on ideology

This popular electorate for the National Rally also constitutes a significant reserve of votes for the candidate: this population being more prone to abstention, it can provide valuable extra channels in the second round.

According to an Odoxa poll, the modest categories represent 36% of abstainers.

Convincing non-voters is the whole point of bludgeoning these two weeks of purchasing power proposals.

“For non-ideological, postponement votes, you have to speak to the direct interest of the French rather than to their conviction: the wallet is therefore a very good theme”, supports Alexandre Eyries.

Romain, who voted France Insoumise in the first round, says nothing else: “Nothing to do with everyone's vision of France, or major projects for the future of the country.

Now I only think of myself.

The candidate who offers me the most will get my vote.

»

We must save the soldier's purchasing power

It is through purchasing power that the two candidates will have to convince the undecided, and there are many of them.

“The popular electorate can switch from one candidate to another, or decide not to vote.

The real problem for Emmanuel Macron, in addition to the part of the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon who would vote for Marine Le Pen, is the abstention of the others, which would serve him, ”continues Benjamin Morel.

According to a poll, in the second round, 30% of France Insoumise voters would vote for each of the candidates, and 40% would abstain.

What provide a big target for the two candidates, to which is added the 26% abstention rate.

In her first-round victory speech, Marine Le Pen also called on all French people, left, right, abstentionist, to vote for her, proof that the hunt for ways has already begun.

Marine, who did not participate in the first round, specifies: “I rarely vote at the beginning, because too many candidates and programs, I get lost.

There, there are only two left, I can really choose my vote.

But I need to be convinced.

“ Romain confirms: “The bases of the two candidates are insufficient, it is us, the others, who have the power.

On your marks, ready, finance

And indeed, the red carpets are out.

Traveling in the North this Monday, Emmanuel Macron spoke social-social-social.

He notably declared that the "Macron bonus", which "was an option until then will become an obligation".

It will be increased to 6,000 euros per employee, “without charges or taxes”, he specified.

Launch of the bidding.

The candidate could, as during his big meeting, talk about his recent measures, “but there are never enough measures and all the gestures you make are forgotten the minute they were made.

And then, that did not prevent prices from increasing, which people remember, ”warns Benjamin Morel.

Beyond the proposals, the respective attacks of each candidate risk bearing on this purchasing power.

"Emmanuel Macron will seek to discredit Marine Le Pen as in 2017," imagines Benjamin Morel.

As for the candidate, "she will play on Emmanuel Macron's image of a president of the rich and disconnected from the worries of everyday life", continues Alexandre Eyries.

Are we going to see a second round solely dedicated to purchasing power?

Other concerns occupy the French, the researcher advances, in particular questions of security or national autonomy after the coronavirus crisis.

But indeed, the wallet of the French should monopolize a lot of attention.

Benjamin Morel illustrates: "Even a major international crisis such as the war in Ukraine is now seen by the French only as a problem with their purchasing power".

Proof of the obsession on the subject.

Applicants are notified.

Policy

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Presidential 2022: Macron and Le Pen debate purchasing power on TF1 from a distance

• Elections

• Presidential election 2022

• Emmanuel Macron

• Marine Le Pen

• purchasing power

• Economy

• Campaign