- Both sides are quite hard worn.

What the Russians have now done is that they have moved down the units that have taken a beating north of Kyiv and in principle deploy them directly, without them being allowed to rest up, says Joakim Paasikivi in ​​SVT's Morgonstudion.

According to him, the Ukrainian troops are doing the same.

- You bring troops forward and fill up.

It's mostly a question of who starts.

Because it will come and whoever takes the initiative will probably be able to lead the battle, says Joakim Paasikivi.

More favorable terrain

What speaks for Russia in the conflict is, among other things, more favorable terrain in the Donbas and the new general who will lead the war - Aleksandr Dvornikov.

- It is probably not the people in the previous management who are the problem, but the lack of a management level.

All the individual armies, each with its own general, have waged their own war.

What they are doing now is lifting one of them to become head of the entire operation, says Paasikivi.

- If he succeeds in creating better coordination then there are conditions for the Russians to wage a more structured battle, he continues.

High combat morale

What speaks for Ukraine's forces is, among other things, that they are fighting at home, have a continued supply of materials from the West and high combat morale.

- We have seen that their war morale is fantastically high.

They are also more flexible and have used the opportunities in a much better way than the rather rigid warfare that Russia has done.

From the Ukrainian side, you can maneuver and operate in a freer way, says Paasikivi.

The problem for Ukraine, on the other hand, is that there will be very long maintenance lines, he adds.

- Especially if you are going all the way back to Poland.

Then there are many miles that things have to be moved.

Hear Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi and Inga Näslund, Russia expert at Palmecenter, describe three possible scenarios for an end to the war in the clip above.

Five questions: This is how it goes in the new phase of the war

  • What speaks for Ukraine?

    26 sec

  • What speaks for Russia?

    18 sec

  • What does Russia's new general mean for the war?

    30 sec

  • How long can Ukraine last?

    20 sec

  • When will the next offensive come?

    39 sec