How will the anti-Macron vote influence the second round?

• The second round of the presidential election sees a duel between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron.

• The outgoing president is extremely divisive, to the point of having a fringe of the population preferring anything but a second term on his part.

• Meeting with these anti-Macron, ready to vote for Marine Le Pen.

“The facho rather than the end of social achievements.

To justify her vote for Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election, Mathilde, 28, came up with a flashy slogan.

However, in the family of the young psychologist, we inherit the vote on the left as well as the dish service or misplaced pride: in natural tradition mode, without asking too many questions.

Suffice to say that voting for the National Rally was not in its basic plans: “Of course, I don't approve of anything or almost the Marine program.

But I resolutely cannot vote Macron, not after all he has done in terms of social damage, ”she justifies herself.

An option that she is not the only one to wish to take.

According to a second round projection carried out by Ipsos-Sopra Steria for France TV, Radio France, France 24, RFI, Public Sénat, LCP and

on Sunday, 34% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon's voters would refer to Emmanuel Macron, and 30 % on Le Pen, 36% preferring to abstain.

They would be 24% among the voters of Valérie Pécresse to vote Le Pen.

“If there is still an anti-National Rally vote, it now coexists with an anti-Macron vote, which pushes some of the voters to either vote for Marine Le Pen or to abstain,” notes Benjamin Morel, doctor of science. policies.

Indiana Macron and the lost electorate

Mathilde explains: "With Macron, it's five more years of damage to our public services: health, education, civil servants... And when we concede ground on this, we don't recover it.

The civil rights possibly lost with Marine, the next president will give them back.

Then good, democracy with Macron… Ask the blinded “yellow vests” what they think of it.

Macron's five-year term has seen many areas of tension: the coronavirus epidemic, the "yellow vests" crisis, strikes against pension reform, the president's little phrases...

“Emmanuel Macron notably lost a whole part of the left-wing electorate not on social questions, but on civic questions, with the law for controlled immigration or the anti-breaker law, seen as draconian.

This created in some minds that Macron was equivalent to Le Pen, or that she was no worse than him, ”supports Benjamin Morel.

“Macron we tested, Le Pen never.

It could hardly be worse."

The period is also at Apothecary Calculation.

For Romain, voting basic LFI, “Emmanuel Macron will necessarily have the majority in the legislative elections, therefore full powers to do what he wants.

If Le Pen is elected, the left can win the legislative elections by dam, and carry out part of its policy.

" New argument released by the voter: " Macron we tested, Le Pen never.

It could hardly be worse.

»

Statements made possible by several distinct phenomena.

First, “a symbolic opposition of the working classes with a head of state who seems distant, president of the rich, who can appear contemptuous.

This led the working classes to turn away from Emmanuel Macron, even to totally embrace the Le Pen vote, ”says Benjamin Morel.

According to a study by Ipsos, households with a monthly net income of less than 2,000 euros voted 28.5% for Marine Le Pen, and only 17.5% for the outgoing president.

The underprivileged classes voted almost three times more Rassemblement National than En Marche (37% against 13%).

Standard application opposite

Added to this is all the work of demonization undertaken by Marine Le Pen since the beginning of her taking office in 2021 at the head of her party.

Work helped by the candidacy of Eric Zemmour during this election, “which contributed to normalizing Marine Le Pen.

The anti-Macron vote is also made possible by a candidate opposite who has become commonplace, ”says Benjamin Morel.

Sébastien, a teacher who voted Valérie Pécresse in the first round, approves: “Marine is not her father, and it is not Macron either.

That's two good reasons to vote for her.

It is made the devil incarnate, but it is not she who put Blanquer in the National Education or who destroyed the public hospital.

This is not the first time that an election has been influenced in the second round by an anti-presidential vote in place.

Nicolas Sarkozy in 2012 had also paid the price: “He too was very divisive, which helped the candidacy of François Hollande, based on the opposite of Nicolas Sarkozy”, notes Benjamin Morel.

It's the same for Marine Le Pen, who is increasingly presenting her candidacy as a no to Emmanuel Macron, particularly in terms of purchasing power.

An anti-macron vote, but how far?

Still, the positions could move.

Since Sunday evening, the share of Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters who intend to vote for Marine Le Pen has fallen from 30% to 18% between Sunday and Thursday, according to the same Ipsos survey.

Proof that once the anger and emotion have passed, a semblance of a Republican front naturally comes back into place.

"Right now, I'm pissed off.

Maybe I'll change my vote to a blank vote.

Plague, cholera, maybe it's just as well not to choose,” sighs Romain.

On this depends a large part of the result of the second round.

Benjamin Morel concludes: “Emmanuel Macron has a solid base of voters, and a very solid base also of people who will never vote for him.

Its whole challenge is to convince the abstainers and the undecided.

»

Elections

Presidential polls 2022: Who from Marine Le Pen or Emmanuel Macron is in the lead for the second round?

Elections

Presidential 2022: Europe for candidate Macron, a good deal?

• Elections

• Emmanuel Macron

• Vote

• Presidential election 2022

• Marine Le Pen